Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague – $5,900
I recommended Teague in this space on Monday and despite going off for 53.75 DraftKings (DK) points, his price is only up $400. At $5,900 he is still a great play on DraftKings tonight, when he’ll be matched up against Ish Smith, who sits 45th in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus among point guards this season.
Despite Smith’s lack of defensive prowess, the 76ers have actually been very average in terms of fantasy production allowed to opposing point guards – both with and without him on the team. Having now topped at least 25 DK points for five games running, the matchup really doesn’t concern me enough to move away from Teague at his price point.
There’s merit to fading him in large-field GPPs as his ownership is likely to be inflated due to his game on Monday. But if you’re paying down at point guard, he’s a solid option for under $6,000.
Shooting Guard
Rodney Hood – $6,000
Hood is another repeat entry and a player that despite averaging a solid 29.95 DK points per game over the previous 11 games, has only had a price increase of $200. Much of this production has coincided with his increased usage over the month of January – his usage rate of 25.8% in January was notably higher than his average of 21.5% through December. Not only is Hood’s recent production working in his favor, the matchup is one that he should be able to exploit as well – Denver has allowed the seventh-most DK points to the shooting guard position over the previous 10 games.
Okay, good matchup and consistent recent production – let’s roll him out, right? Despite these things working for him, I found myself slightly hesitant to recommend Hood again after his so-so performance on Monday, and wanted to dig deeper before doing so. Luckily, our Trends tool offers us an unparalleled solution for all of our researching needs.
Knowing that Hood should play a ton of minutes against a weaker opponent in a pace-up game, I compiled the query below and found the results to be quite positive.
Small Forward
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – $4,500
The matchup isn’t ideal – the Cavaliers have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.3 to SFs – but the price certainly is. With the way the pricing is set up on the major two sites at the moment, values have been tough to come by on DraftKings. This isn’t the case for Kidd-Gilchrist though, as he sits with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
He’s been great in his two games back, having posted 22 and 42 DK points, and will be a great bet to exceed his implied point total of 19.7 tonight. Unfortunately Kidd-Gilchrist’s viability this evening is largely tied to the status of his injured teammates. If Jeremy Lamb and Nicholas Batum both suit up, minutes will likely be tougher to come by.
Be sure to check our Player News page throughout the day, as updates will be posted as they become available.
Power Forward
Taj Gibson – $5,600
We currently have Gibson projected to play over 37 minutes (check out our Player Models page for all player minute projections) in a game featuring two of the faster paced teams in the league – the Kings play at the fastest pace and the Bulls the 11th fastest. Against a team that has struggled mightily in defending the power forward position all year, Gibson should be in line for a nice game.
Vegas has this game sitting at a 211.5 over/under and a 1.5-point spread. Be sure to monitor any line changes throughout the day though. If DeMarcus Cousins and/or Rajon Rondo are ruled out, this game could threaten to be a blowout. If we see late line movement indicating that Vegas believes this to be the case, Gibson’s playing time could see a hit, lowering his ceiling a bit.
Center
Gorgui Dieng – $5,700
Another player that’s value is largely tied to the injury status of two of his teammates, Dieng has been sublime over his previous 10 games.
Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic are both in jeopardy of missing tonight’s game, which should allow Dieng to see all of the minutes he can handle. Though he is listed as a center, he’ll slot in as the power forward next to Towns if he draws another start. The Clippers have an off-putting Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.9 against opposing centers, but a far more attractive +2.3 against opposing power forwards. With Townes apt to draw the majority of the attention, Dieng should be poised for another strong outing.
