Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague – $6,000
Despite playing some really consistent, productive basketball over the past month, Teague has only had his price increase +$200.
There are some compelling tournament options priced lower than Teague, but I’m not sure any offer the consistency we’d like to see for cash games. With Teague, we’re getting player that has been incredibly consistent – throw out his dud two games ago due to injury and he’s surpassed his implied point total in seven of his previous eight games – with a really solid matchup, at a price that will allow us some flexibility in constructing our rosters tonight.
Chicago has been an exploitable matchup for opposing point guards, largely due to Derrick Rose’s horrendous defense – he ranks 82nd out of 84 eligible point guards in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Even if Rose doesn’t play, E’Twaun Moore isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart himself.
I’m not sure pivoting off the premium players at the position is an optimal move, but Teague is a solid option if needed.
Shooting Guard
JJ Redick – $5,100
Redick has been running hot the last two games, hitting a combined 10 3-pointers. Tonight he’ll have the opportunity to take on a Kings team that is allowing the most 3-point attempts to opposing players and is fifth in 3-point field goal attempts on the season. This perimeter defense against wings is just so lacking, that at Redick’s price, it’s something that’s worth looking at.
Against opposing shooting guards that average five 3-point attempts per game, the Kings have struggled mightily. Utilizing our Trends tool, we can isolate only the opposing shooting guards that are averaging at least five 3-point attempts per game to see exactly how bad Sacramento has been.
For comparison, that 31.92 average is third in the league.
Jamal Crawford is still in play in this matchup as well, but his price on DraftKings (DK) makes it a bit more questionable. Crawford likely has a higher ceiling, but the savings of Redick offers him a slight edge tonight.
Small Forward
Matt Barnes – $5,400
Barnes may seem a little point-chasey, but the matchup is solid and he should receive plenty of playing time to justify his consideration in your lineups this evening.
The Lakers have actually not been that horrible in terms of DK points allowed to small forwards on the season as a whole, but they’re not a matchup to be scared off of, as witnessed by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 75-point DK game on Monday and Barnes’ 43.5 DK points on Wednesday.
Barnes will likely be a very chalky play, but that shouldn’t deter you from considering him at his price point.
Power Forward
Brandon Wright – $3,700 / JaMychal Green – $4,200
As you can probably guess by the dual options located above, power forward kind of sucks for value tonight. There are some really strong options closer to the top of the pricing spectrum, but just not a lot of value in the lower tiers.
You could look to both Bulls guys against the Hawks or Myles Turner at $6,000, but if you’re looking to punt the position, both Memphis guys had a ton of success against the Lakers on Wednesday.
Make no mistake, both of these players are true punt plays and carry lots of risk. But at their prices, I think they do deserve some consideration.
Green has two games over 25 DK points since the All-Star Break and Wright is playing about 20 minutes a game over the past three, but hasn’t done much outside of last Wednesday when both guys had their way with LA. If they get comparable playing time tonight, both are good candidates to do so again.
Center
Robyn Lopez – $5,600
Lopez’s price is still intriguing as a tournament option, just due to his extreme upside. The Magic have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5, which makes for a very exploitable situation for Lopez.
One look at Lopez’s game log over his last few previous matchups against teams that have an Opponent Plus/Minus over zero, show the type of upside he carries in tournaments.
The spread of 2.5 points implies that this game should stay close, providing Lopez with ample opportunity to rack up fantasy production tonight.
