Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Tony Parker – $5,100
Performing well since the All-Star Break, Parker has posted back-to-back 30-plus DraftKings (DK) point games. And now he’ll be gifted with one of the best possible matchups available to point guards right now, as San Antonio will travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings this evening.
The Kings are generous to opposing players in general, but opposing point guards have particularly taken advantage of them this season. Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that they’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +5.24 this year, the third highest in the league.
Minutes are always a concern with Parker (and the Spurs in general), but our projections currently have him pegged for over 27 minutes tonight, a total that should allow him sufficient time to accumulate enough production to pay off his price tag.
If you’re looking for minute projections for every player on this evening’s slate, be sure to check out the Player Models page.
Shooting Guard
Vince Carter – $3,300
So the Dunk Contest is relevant again, Vince Carter is a usable fantasy asset, and Derek Zoolander is on the big screen? Are we really sure the calendar reads 2016?
Carter is just so cheap, it makes so much sense to utilize him on tonight’s slate that is chock-full of premium players that we’d like to find a way to roster.
At $3,300 and carrying a projected usage rate of just over 21% and minute projection sitting over 25 at the moment, Carter is in good company.
The matchup is good – The Lakers have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.8 – and Memphis is projected to score roughly 10 more points than they average on the season.
Tony Allen is doubtful at the time of this writing, but be sure to confirm his status prior to locking Carter into your lineup.
Small Forward
Tobias Harris – $6,000
Harris has wasted no time in acclimating himself to his new team, as he’s averaging 29.33 DK points in the three games since he’s been acquired.
The best part about what we’ve seen from him in Detroit thus far is the consistent playing time he’s getting from Stan Van Gundy. Harris is averaging over 33 minutes per game since his arrival and hasn’t seen less than 30 minutes in a game yet.
In a matchup with the 76ers and their Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6, Harris makes for a solid cash game option this evening.
Power Forward
Myles Turner – $5,800
The options below $6,000 at the power forward position are a bit limited tonight, but Turner’s price is down -$600 from it’s peak a few weeks ago and he does possess a ceiling that is far greater than anyone else in his price range.
Despite playing at a fairly steady level – he’s dropped below 27 DK points once over his past six games – Turner has struggled to meet value as his price had been climbing. With it now back down, he is far more affordable and has appeal in tournaments tonight.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas – $6,000
Valanciunas is really just too cheap on DK right now, with his Bargain Rating coming in at 93%.
Since the All-Star Break he’s already posted double-doubles in two of three games and has managed two 20-plus point nights in that stretch as well.
The matchup against Minnesota doesn’t jump off the page as being great – they’re right around the league average in fantasy production allowed to the position – but they’re Opponent Plus/Minus sits at an attractive +1.7. Because Opponent Plus/Minus factors in the pricing of the opposing players a team has faced, it will often prove to be more predictive than just raw fantasy points allowed.
A look at some of the recent gamelogs of the opponents Minnesota has faced would appear to back this up.
They’ve had some success, but many of the better players they’ve faced have had their way with them. Look for Valanciunas to have comparable success this evening.
