Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Jordan Clarkson – $5,300
I wish that we had more clarity surrounding Jeff Teague’s injured wrist. He’s confirmed that he’s playing, but there isn’t much surrounding how close to 100% he is. With the Warriors always a threat to blowout their opponent, he just carries too much risk to recommend here, but I do like both him and Dennis Schroder in tournaments tonight.
With that said, let’s move on to the actual pick at point guard, which is Clarkson. The Lakers are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but at $5,300 it’s tough to worry too much about it. With Kobe Bryant dinged up and well, just being old, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play fewer minutes this evening, which should result in a boost for Clarkson. His usage rate without Bryant on the court this season has been almost six percentage points higher than when the two play alongside each other.
Over the last few games, Bryant’s presence hasn’t mattered one way or the other for Clarkson though — he’s been on top of his game, exceeding his implied point total in seven of the previous nine games.
Clarkson is listed at point guard on DraftKings (DK), but is expected to start at shooting guard, with D’Angelo Russell drawing the start at the point. This should be to his benefit, as Milwaukee owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.2 against opposing shooting guards as opposed to +0.8 for opposing point guards.
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford – $5,600
Shooting guard is rather ugly this evening and while his price has really crept up on DK, Crawford’s recent production and projected role keep him in play this evening.
Over his previous 10 games, Crawford has been cash game gold, exceeding his implied point total 100% of the time.
In general, when I’m looking for players to feature in this column and utilize as salary relief in my lineups, I always start my research with a trend I’ve constructed within our Trends tool that relies upon three basic principles – are they cheap, are they going to be on the court, and will they have a high usage rate.
Ideally, I want players who we can reasonably project to play 30-plus minutes and sport a usage rate of 25% or higher. Again, this is ideally, not everyone is going to fall into this bucket, but if we can find them it’s a great place to start our bargain research.
And it just so happens that Crawford has been the poster boy for this trend of late and meets the criteria once again tonight.
The Clippers are heavy favorites in what could be a blowout, but at his price, I’m willing to take on that risk when considering the other options at shooting guard tonight.
Small Forward
Jae Crowder – $5,700
I feel the need to preface this, as if Dwyane Wade sits this evening – he’s a game time decision at the time of this writing – Luol Deng probably vaults ahead of Crowder. Let’s assume that Wade does play this evening though, as he was able to make it through shootaround and the Heat are already very short-handed.
Crowder’s price is down $1,000 from a month ago and while he did struggle for a time in January, he finished strong in the two games prior to the All-Star Break and the two games since we’ve been back, averaging 31.3 DK points per game.
The matchup against the Timberwolves is just middle of the road, but while Minnesota has capped the ceiling of many small forwards they’ve faced, they have allowed over 60% to meet or exceed their implied value, the seventh-highest rate in the league.
Power Forward
Julius Randle – $6,100
You really can’t go wrong with many of the value options available at power forward this evening, but Randle stands out as the better value on DK, while Tristan Thompson and Jabari Parker are probably better utilized on FanDuel.
Randle has been producing consistently for the past month, averaging 32.1 DK points per game over his previous 15. In a matchup against the Bucks and their Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7, his consistent play should continue.
Similarly to what we discussed with the Timberwolves above, the Bucks haven’t necessarily been allowing a ton of huge games, but they do allow opposing power forwards to consistently hit value.
Expect Randle to continue to find success against Parker’s suspect defense – he ranks 84th out of 92 eligible power forwards in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus – on his way to a solid outing tonight.
Center
Robin Lopez – $5,400
Lopez has an acceptable Bargain Rating of 66% on DK tonight and that, combined with a plus matchup against the Raptors, should allow him to return solid value this evening.
While the Raptors as a whole have been very solid defensively this season, they’ve actually allowed a decent amount of production to opposing centers. In fact, only three teams allow more DK points per game and a greater average Plus/Minus.
Lopez probably falls closer to tournament territory as he’s been up and down of late, but does have two 50-plus DK point games over his previous six. That immense upside at his modest price is definitely something that should warrant our attention if we’re paying down at the position tonight.
