Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Darren Collison – $4,700
Collison and the Kings have the second-highest over/under on this evening’s slate, making this game one we’re going to want to target. Rajon Rondo is a strong play against the weak Nugget defense.
Denver struggles as a whole defensively, but can particularly be attacked at the point guard position, where they have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.9.
With Collision coming off of the bench, there’s always concern regarding his playing time, but at the time of this writing, we do have him projected for 27.7 minutes – as a reminder, all player projections can be accessed by subscribers on the Player Models page.
Luckily, we do have a bit of a sample to draw on for Collison, as he’s been in a comparable situation seven times already this season. Utilizing our Trends tool, we can access the information from these previous contests by setting our filters to only games this season where Sacramento has had an over/under of at least 217 and we’ve projected Collison to play at least 27 minutes.
Not a huge sample size, but impressive nonetheless.
He’s a bit risky for cash, but is capable of returning great value if utilized in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Will Barton – $5,500
Sticking with that same Sacramento-Denver game, Barton finds himself with a fantastic 90% Bargain Rating tonight. Not only is the price enticing, Barton will have the opportunity to abuse a Kings defense that has struggled against wings all year, allowing the third-highest Plus/Minus to opposing shooting guards.
Barton’s minutes have been a bit unpredictable, but Denver will likely need Barton’s firepower to hang with the Kings. The price is low enough that he’s in play as a fringe cash-game option and his ceiling makes him a potentially elite tournament play.
Small Forward
Luol Deng – $4,900
Deng isn’t someone we ever get excited about playing, but he’s been steady and will see heavy minutes tonight.
Over his previous 10 games, he’s hit value 70% of the time and has a solid Plus/Minus as well.
At the moment he’s projected for over 37 minutes and at only $4,900, he should be able to meet value if he gets anywhere near that projection against an Atlanta team that has been middle of the pack against opposing small forwards (they have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.5).
Power Forward
Dirk Nowitzki – $6,000
Nowitzki continues to be underpriced on DraftKings, sporting a Bargain Rating of 95%. At $6,000, his implied point total is only 26.31, a figure that he has surpassed five out of his last six games.
His matchup with the Magic is expected to be close (a 1.5-point spread) and has a decent over/under of 204.5, so there should be plenty of quality minutes available to him this evening.
For as great of an athlete as Aaron Gordon is, his defensive game could still use some work, as he’s 60th in the league in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus among power forwards. Nowitzki should be able to exploit the young up and comer on his way to a solid evening.
Center
Tim Duncan – $5,000
The matchup is ideal, Kawhi Leonard is sitting, and Duncan appears healthy. Now, with all of this said, we’re still talking about the Spurs here. It’s entirely possible we could see Popovich decide to limit his aging big man’s minutes again and severely hinder his upside.
But if he doesn’t, Duncan should thrive tonight against a Lakers defense that struggles mightily against opposing bigs, allowing the ninth-most DK points to the position.
With playing time always a concern, Duncan is likely best utilized as a low cost tournament option tonight.
