Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At Fantasy Labs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague – $5,500
Teague offers great value this evening at his depressed price of $5,500. With a price decrease of $1,000 over the previous month, it’s tough to argue against targeting him if you’re not paying for one of the premium options tonight.
After a stretch of fluctuating playing time, Teague has now logged 26-plus minutes over the previous four games and has – unsurprisingly – exceeded his implied point total in each contest as well.
Dallas isn’t a great matchup for opposing point guards – they have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.3 – but with an implied point total of only 24.1 DraftKings (DK) points, Teague should be able to return solid value.
Shooting Guard
Rodney Hood – $6,000
Targeting the Bulls with opposing shooting guards hasn’t necessarily been ideal in the past, but the last five shooting guards that have faced the Bulls with a minute projection of at least 28 minutes have all had great success.
We currently have Hood projected for just over 32 minutes this evening, which should allow him to see plenty of court time to compile production. (If you haven’t, check out our Player Models page where you’ll find minute and point projections for every player on the slate.) Hood has been volatile at times, but over his previous 10 games he’s averaging 30 DK points per game.
Small Forward
Stanley Johnson – $4,200
Over his previous three games, Johnson is averaging 25.75 DK points per outing, while logging an average of 29.94 minutes per game. His recent uptick in playing time and production couldn’t come at a better time, as he’ll have an opportunity to take on the weak defense of the Nets.
On the season, the Nets have been average against opposing small forwards, but over the past five games they’ve fallen off a bit. Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve prepared a query that will examine only opposing small forwards that we’ve projected to play a minimum of 25 minutes – Johnson is projected to play 27.5 – over the previous five games. As we’ll see below, the results have been quite positive.
Considering his price and recent play, Johnson should be on your radar this evening.
Power Forward
Jabari Parker – $5,300
Parker has played well over the past five games, posting an average of 26.35 DK points per night. Regardless of if Cousins plays tonight or not, Parker should be in line for another nice night. Over the course of this season, the Kings have allowed huge production to opposing power forwards that we’ve projected to play at least 30 minutes.
With a healthy over/under of 214, there should be an abundance of scoring opportunities to go around. Parker should make for a nice pivot off of some of the higher priced options on this slate.
Center
Zaza Pachulia – $5,800
Pachulia has looked healthy over the past couple of games and now gets a matchup that should emphasize his rebounding ability – he’s seventh in rebounds per game in the NBA. The Hawks have struggled to keep opposing players off of the boards all season, allowing the third-most rebounds to opposing centers this year.
His ceiling isn’t ideal, but should be sufficient for cash game use this evening.
