Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague – $6,000
Teague is a player that has seemed to fly under the radar a bit recently, after burning many earlier in the year. On a night that is filled with big name options, it’s likely that he’ll do so once again.
Hitting value almost every night over his past 10 games, he’s been even more impressive over the last five, averaging almost 35 DraftKings (DK) points per game.
A matchup with the Bulls this evening should do nothing to deter you from using him either. The Bulls have struggled mightily against the point guard position this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5.
Utilizing our Trends tool, we can see that they are even more generous than this rating would have you believe. Teague is projected to play just over 30 minutes this evening – a mark he’s surpassed in each of his previous three games – so we’ll adjust our query to include only opposing point guards that have been projected to play at least 30 minutes against Chicago this season.
Not bad. What’s even better? The 37.76 DK points allowed is actually the second highest in the league.
At his price point, Teague should allow you to differentiate yourself from those rostering his counterpart this evening – Derrick Rose – and those opting to pay up for the premium-priced options.
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford – $5,300
On Monday’s edition of our Trend of the Day series, I highlighted a Trend involving bargain-priced players with high-projected usage rates and playing time. Crawford was one of the matches for the day (and Teague was as well, actually), which made me take a further look into his recent production. And while I’ve utilized him on a few tournament lineups recently, he’s not a player I’d generally give much cash consideration to. But a closer look at how he’s been playing without Blake Griffin was eye opening.
Impressive, right? Crawford has really picked up the pace of late though, averaging 31.9 DK points over his previous five games, hitting his implied value in every game.
His matchup tonight isn’t great – Boston is middle of the pack in terms of production allowed to the position – but not daunting enough to push me off of him either.
Shooting guard is packed with value this evening and Devin Booker and Rodney Hood will likely continue to be popular players for those paying down. Both are quality options and should also warrant your attention as well.
Small Forward
Jeff Green – $5,700
Green is in for a nice usage hike with Marc Gasol now out indefinitely – without him on the floor this season Green’s usage rate has been 24.4% as compared to 19.1% playing alongside him. At the moment, our projections have his usage rate for tonight at 26.48% – projections for every player on tonight’s slate can be found on our Player Models page.
Going back to that trend we discussed regarding Crawford, let’s run it again to see what the matches for today would be – keep in mind the Plus/Minus for this trend was well over +6.0, indicating a great potential return on investment.
Unsurprisingly, many of the players mentioned in today’s column appear in the matches for today, and the reasoning shouldn’t be that surprising. It’s incredibly difficult to find cheap players that will play big minutes and have a high usage rate – which is exactly what we have in Green tonight.
The over/under of 199 isn’t exactly inspiring, but Memphis is actually projected to score about four points over their yearly average. Green’s ceiling and projected workload should make him viable in all formats tonight.
Power Forward
Taj Gibson – $5,600
Gibson has been disappointing with the Bulls down multiple integral pieces the past few games. His price seems a tad high, but he should see plenty of work on the boards against an Atlanta team that boasts the league’s worst rebound differential. As bad as the Hawks have been at rebounding the ball this season, they’ve probably struggled even more against opposing power forwards as a whole.
That impressive Plus/Minus of +4.52 is good for second worst in the league, trailing only the Kings.
Zach Randolph will be a very chalky play tonight, but costs more than we’re generally willing to include in this column. If you can’t quite make him fit, Gibson makes for a nice pivot at a slightly reduced price.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas – $6,000
I’ll lead with this – I’m not a big fan of the lower-priced options at center on DK tonight. You can extract a lot of value at a few thousand more, just based on how they are pricing the center position at the moment.
That being said, Valanciunas has a decent enough matchup and does have a solid Bargain Rating of 77% on DK. Minnesota owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 on the year and the over/under of 206.5 isn’t horrible. Valanciunas has upside and actually makes for a nice GPP target, as his ownership should be low, but his volatility makes him a tough sell in cash games.
