Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At Fantasy Labs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Patrick Beverley – $4,200
The Rockets and the Thunder are projected to score a ridiculous amount of points this evening – 222.5 at the time of this writing – which means we need to find ways to get exposure to this game in any way possible (you’ll notice this trend develop further below). Russell Westbrook will be a very chalky play at point guard, but Beverley will allow us to gain exposure at a greatly reduced price tag.
Beverley and the Rockets have taken part in 11 games over the past two seasons with a projected point total of at least 215.
Not only is his average point total acceptable when considering how reasonably Beverley is priced, but his impressive Consistency Rating of 72% is exactly what we’d like to see out of a low priced punt play. There is no guarantee that this past success will carry over to this evening’s game, but the performance of opposing point guards against the Thunder certainly bodes well for Beverley.
Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve queried our database for all opposing point guards facing the Thunder this season that we’ve projected to play at least 30 minutes (which Beverly is).
To expect him to approach thirty DraftKings points may be on the optimistic side, but the average Plus/Minus of +4.39 strengthens the case for playing him tonight.
Shooting Guard
Archie Goodwin – $5,600
Goodwin’s price is up again, but still within a reasonable range for the production that he is capable of. The Knicks have been taken advantage of by opposing point guards – which is where Goodwin should see most of his minutes – this season, particularly those that we’ve projected to see heavy minutes like Goodwin is.
With his price hike and uninspiring performance the last time out, Goodwin’s ownership should see a decent decline, keeping him in play as a tournament or cash option.
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza – $5,500
Ariza predictably fell back to Earth against the Spurs on Wednesday, but will have a chance to rebound against an OKC squad that is surrendering the third most points to the small forward position this year. Additionally, they own an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +1.7, implying that Ariza should be able to take advantage of his matchup.
As we touched on earlier, this game is one to target and Ariza is a bargain option that actually offers an impressive ceiling, having posted back to back 40-plus DK point games (though these were without Dwight Howard in the lineup). The Thunder’s perimeter defense isn’t elite – they’re allowing the third most three point makes to the small forward position this year – which should bode well for Ariza, as a lot of his fantasy appeal is tied into his three point shooting. This game should be up-tempo – both teams are top-ten in pace – with plenty of shots to go around, which will help make up for Ariza’s drop in usage with Howard in the lineup.
Power Forward
Julius Randle – $5,900
Randle has really upped his play of late, producing an average of 27.43 DK points over his previous 10 games.
The Clippers have struggled to defend opposing power forwards of late, allowing an average of 31.5 DK points to the previous five power forwards that we’ve projected to play a minimum of 25 minutes. This evening we have Randle projected to play 29.7 – all minute and fantasy point projections can be found over at our Player Models page as always – which should allow him plenty of court time to pile up statistics.
Blow-outs are a concern with the Lakers, but Randle has now played at least 24 minutes in his previous ten games.
Center
Spencer Hawes – $4,800
I spoke about my worries surrounding Hawes facing Rudy Gobert in Wednesday’s column and why I’d be hesitant to roll him out again. Against the Trail Blazers I have no such concerns and am perfectly happy to get back on the Hawes bandwagon tonight.
Portland allows the tenth most points to opposing centers on the season and this game has an acceptable projected point total of 206. Hawes’ price is really just too cheap for the floor and ceiling that he possesses in this matchup. If you’re trying to squeeze in Westbrook and/or Durant this evening, paying down at center makes sense.
