Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At Fantasy Labs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Trey Burke – $4,400
Raul Neto has been ruled out of this evening’s game, which should result in a start and boost in playing time for Burke. Our projections have Burke pegged for 35.4 minutes this evening – you can find minute and point projections for every player within our Player Models – if he gets anywhere above 30 minutes, chances are he’ll return great value. In the seven games that he’s played at least 30 minutes this season, Burke has averaged 26.5 DK points.
He will take on the Hornets, owners of an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3. They have surrendered some really big games to opposing point guards this year, including lately. To illustrate this, I’ve utilized our Trends tool. Because of Burke’s projected heavy minute allocation, I’ve opted to set up my query to pull only opposing point guards that we have projected for at least 35 minutes of playing time this year against Charlotte.
For subjectivity’s sake, I re-ran the query to include any player that has been projected for 31-plus minutes against Charlotte and the results were still extremely favorable.
Burke doesn’t possess an incredibly high ceiling, but at his price, he is a great bet to meet value tonight.
Shooting Guard
Archie Goodwin – $4,800
Goodwin is still listed at shooting guard on DraftKings and is not a great bargain – he has a gross Bargain Rating of 4% – but the playing time and usage keep him in play.
Largely because he’s actually playing point guard, Goodwin has a crazy Usage Rate of 29.3% since Brandon Knight has been out of the lineup. The ability to fit in an additional point guard is always alluring and on a night that will see James Harden faced with a tough matchup against the Spurs, Goodwin is a nice pivot.
This game projects to be a blow-out, but Goodwin played heavy minutes in his first game as a starter that also ended up as a blow-out. We don’t know exactly how coach Hornacek will handle the situation, but there just isn’t much behind Goodwin. At the time of this writing, we have him projected for over 38 minutes. If he gets anywhere near that mark, hitting value shouldn’t be an issue.
Small Forward
Thabo Sefolosha – $3,900
Disclaimer: I’m not a fan of rostering Thabo. His ceiling is limited and frankly, I find him boring to watch. Putting aside my biases, I think his price and the matchup are difficult to ignore on tonight’s slate.
The Clippers have struggled against wing players all year and I don’t believe tonight will be the night they shore things up. Many players will likely be drawn to Kent Bazemore, but his price is just too high right now. In the month of January, the production you’ve received from Thabo hasn’t been that far off of what you’d get from Bazemore either.
In an evening with many projected blow-outs, this game projects as the closest, which should be a good sign for Sefolosha, who has a Plus/Minus of +1.94 in games that the spread has been within five points this year. He’s strictly a cash game punt, but one that should return 18-22 DK points.
Power Forward
Charlie Villanueva – $3,000
I’m not sure that I’m paying down at power forward tonight, but there are a few minimum priced options that offer potential value. Villanueva is in line for increased minutes with Dirk Nowitzki confirmed out. In the three matchups that we’ve projected Charlie V for at least 20 minutes this year, he’s only hit value once.
The opportunity will be there for him tonight though and at minimum price, we won’t need much from him.
Josh Smith would be my choice for tournaments, but his floor is comparable to Villanueva’s. Again, not sure I’d want to pay down for cash at the position, but I’d take the $1,200 savings and play Villanueva over Smith if you’re punting power forward.
Center
Gorgui Dieng – $4,200
Dieng hit a lull in late December and early January, but appears to be back to producing in the mid-twenty DK point range on a consistent basis. He’s in line to start with Kevin Garnett doubtful this evening.
At a Bargain Rating of 73%, Dieng offers great value on DraftKings. He’ll likely split time between power forward and center against the Thunder in this matchup, but it shouldn’t have a large impact either way. OKC has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5 against power forwards and +1.7 against opposing centers.
Many will likely be on Spencer Hawes again, but the presence of Rudy Gobert is enough of a threat to put his value into question in my mind.
