Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At Fantasy Labs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Beno Udrih – $4,000
Udrih doesn’t have a great Bargain Rating at the moment, but at his incredibly discounted price on all sites, the difference isn’t significant. Tyler Johnson proved inept at running the show with Udrih out the past few games and as such, we should see him take over the reins again. Udrih has averaged roughly 0.6 DK points per minute this season – with or without Goran Dragic around. We currently have Udrih projected to see roughly 28 minutes, which should be plenty of court time for him to meet value against a Bull’s defense that has struggled against opposing point guards this year.
Taking advantage of our Trends tool, we’re able to take a look at how the Bulls have performed against point guards that have been projected to play at least 28 minutes in a game this season – and the results aren’t pretty.
Consider utilizing him if you’re opting to pay down at either point guard or the guard spot this evening.
Shooting Guard
Manu Ginobili – $4,700
The Spurs have an important matchup with the Warriors on tap tonight and with Tim Duncan already confirmed out, it should be all hands on deck. Ginobili’s playing time and production have been too erratic for cash, but he does offer potential upside for tournaments. Without Duncan on the court this year, Ginobili has averaged 1.18 DK points per minute. If this game stays close, we could see Popovich extend his playing time a bit, which should allow for a decent bump in production.
Worth noting, in the five games this season that the spread has been within five points on either side for San Antonio, Ginobili has a Plus/Minus of +2.21.
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza – $5,200
Ariza’s been logging heavy minutes of late – 39.32 per game – and we have him projected to do so once again this evening with Dwight Howard doubtful. He took advantage of this minute bump yesterday, posting a monster 44.75 DK point outing. Tonight’s matchup with the Pelicans has an over/under of 215 points, which should provide ample opportunity for Ariza to produce fantasy points. The Pelicans are decent against opposing small forwards, but the price and opportunity are just too great to ignore right now.
Power Forward
Marvin Williams – $4,800
Everyone is going to be on Josh Smith if they’re paying down at the position tonight and rightfully so, as he costs almost nothing and has extreme upside. He also is probably just as likely to post a zero as he is another 30 DK point outing – he’s shot 29.17% from the field with Houston. Williams isn’t a sexy name, but the minutes are consistent and his production has been up of late – he’s posted three thirty-plus DK points over the past five games. Cody Zeller will remain out, which should open up a few additional minutes in the rotation for Williams against a Sacramento team that has been hemorrhaging points to opposing power forwards. No other team allows as many DK points to opposing power forward that are projected to play at least 28 minutes as the Kings do – as confirmed by our Trends tool.
Williams doesn’t look like a terrific value at first glance based upon our Bargain Rating of 48%, but there just aren’t a ton of bargain-priced power forwards on DraftKings right now and Williams is actually one of the best values under $5,000 at the moment.
Center
Spencer Hawes – $4,100
Hawes will see another spot start in Zeller’s absence and look to build upon his back to back double digit rebound games. Scoring has been tough for him at times, but he’s a threat for the double-double bonus if he can get an extra shot or two to fall. With the Kings allowing roughly 2.5 offensive rebounds to opposing centers per game this year, Hawes may be able to pick up a couple of extra cheap points to further his efforts. Willie Caulie-Stein has energized this Kings’ unit – and is worth a look in tournaments himself – but Hawes’ steady playing time without Zeller should allow him to exceed his implied point total of 17.57 in this matchup.
