Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Tonight’s slate is ridiculously small, so I’ll be bringing you an abridged, slightly modified version of our usual column. Because certain positions either have no viable low-cost options or no choice but to pay down due to positional scarcity, the picks won’t be separated by position like normal. Good luck tonight!
Norris Cole, PG – $5,400
Point guard is the position that is most abundant with value options tonight and we’ll likely see two to three on everyone’s roster. As one of the more viable lower cost options at the position, Cole’s ownership may be higher than we’d like, but his cost and potential ceiling should keep in him in consideration for your lineups. The matchup is great, which will likely push ownership towards Cole’s teammate Jrue Holiday, who’s admittedly been playing far better of late.
At the time of this writing, our projections – available to subscribers over at our Player Models page – have Cole and Holiday projected within three DraftKings (DK) points of each other, despite Holiday costing $1,400 more. Both will make for a solid play on such a short slate and paired together could actually represent a nice pivot off of Westbrook and Wall in tournaments.
Jerryd Bayless, PG – $4,400
Bayless has now played 30-plus minutes in two of his previous three games and should be set to see comparable playing time again tonight against a Washington team that has allowed plenty of production to opposing point guards – they have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4.
Jason Kidd has been splitting up the playing time fairly evenly between Bayless and Michael Carter-Williams over the past few games and the additional minutes have certainly helped out Bayless.
MCW is still outscoring Bayless by a good margin, but hasn’t been nearly the value. With all of the options at point guard tonight, utilizing Bayless in what projects to be a close, high-scoring game – the spread is only 1.5 points at the moment – will allow added flexibility on a night that will likely feature a ton of roster overlap.
Enes Kanter, C – $5,100
The two most viable positions to differentiate at tonight will be point guard and center, in my opinion. Everyone will be on Greg Monroe after his monster showing against Boston and Marcin Gortat will likely be seen as a worthy pivot off of Monroe.
Sitting a couple of thousand below these two is Kanter. And I’d understand the hesitancy surrounding rostering him as his playing time and production have been highly variable this year. But on a night with so few options available, his ceiling makes him a viable option.
Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that Kanter is at his best when Oklahoma City is a double-digit favorite (which they are tonight).
Not only has he returned solid value in these contests, but he’s also gone over 30 DK points in six of the matchups. Having to rely upon garbage time production is never ideal, but on such a small slate we can’t be overly picky.
