These two-day slates have undoubtedly thrown a wrench into overall lineup construction, but there’s still more than enough room to create a strong lineup no matter the format of your choosing.
With that being said, let’s check out what tonight alone has to offer.
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers (-2)
Implied Totals: 96 – 98, O/U: 194
I don’t know about you, but I’ve learned my lesson in fading Paul George. He’s mandatory at FanDuel given his 97% Bargain Rating, but even at DraftKings (where his salary is now $10k) I wouldn’t look to avoid him. DeMarre Carroll, on the other hand, is clearly hobbled and ineffective. His time in their rotation is still cutting into the prospects of Patrick Patterson logging 30-plus minutes, but I would much rather pay down for the latter than worry about Carroll in any format.
Kyle Lowry has met expectations in only one game this series. Seeing as the choice at point guard essentially boils down to him, Damian Lillard, or Kemba Walker, I wouldn’t fret shying away from Lowry’s Dud Percentage of 50% over the last month — yes, whether Lowry reaches even one-half of his salary-based expectations has suddenly become a coin flip. DeMar DeRozan, on the other hand, finally took 20-plus shots for the first time all series, but I wouldn’t bank on another performance of 43.25 DraftKings points. Fortunately, there are a few standout options guaranteed to receive similar run (and potentially produce equivalent points) for less among his position.
With everyone focused on the same centers tonight, Jonas Valanciunas has suddenly become an intriguing tournament play. Foul trouble is certainly concerning, but his declining salary at FanDuel (where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%) now lends an implied total of only 24.03. Sure, he failed to meet that expectation in his last game, but it’s hard to imagine many on him given the surrounding options. Of course, in cash, it just makes more sense to pay the same for Plumlee. Still, Valanciunas benefits from an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets (-1.5)
Implied Totals: 95 – 96.5, O/U: 191.5
The uptick in Jeremy Lin’s minutes have been a detriment to Courtney Lee (among others) as, quite frankly, that’s all the latter had going for him. If he’s logging at or around 30 from this point on, he’s near useless despite the value at FanDuel. Lin should be considered more of a fringe cash (rather than cash) play, however, as Nicolas Batum will likely be featured a bit more — although coming off their bench again, Charlotte will lean on an eight-man rotation with Spencer Hawes out. Batum wouldn’t be an elite option in many slates, but if deciding between him and Joe Johnson (as you’re clearly not fading Paul George), I’d rather Batum at 28 minutes than Johnson at an inevitable 35-plus.
Walker had a horrid shooting performance in his last start, but he still attempted the most field goals of Hornets players. Assuming his usage rate remains a team-high, he’s once again a strong cash option. Rostering him, of course, comes down to choosing between two of he, Lillard, and Lowry, in which case I would look to prioritize Walker above any of Toronto’s backcourt.
Walker’s usage rate in their last game may have finished as a team-high, but it was quietly only 0.1% greater than that of Al Jefferson’s. The choice is clearly between Mason Plumlee and DeAndre Jordan at center (more on that later), but Jefferson remains all too cheap at DraftKings. Hassan Whiteside’s projected ceiling might be a whopping 22.9 points higher, but Jefferson can easily be argued as the stronger option in tournaments given his price point (and, more importantly, a lower expected ownership).
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers (-10.5)
Implied Totals: 93.8 – 104.3, O/U: 198
Austin Rivers is an underrated defender, but even at his best, he’s no Chris Paul. That makes Damian Lillard’s salary at FanDuel — $300 less than his DraftKings price point — all too good to pass on (and arguably the strongest cash option at his position). Rivers, on the other hand, can easily be used at off-ball guard in the same format at DraftKings, but need not be rostered at FanDuel (where he qualifies at point guard). There are better positions to save cap at that have much higher floors.
Over his last two games, C.J. McCollum has produced a Plus/Minus of +13.7. He might have a higher ceiling than, say, Jamal Crawford, but the latter remains a much more valuable option: along with a 93% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Crawford has exceeded expectations in every game this series. He also produced a team-high usage rate of 25.8% without Paul. If anything, the real upset is Jeff Green attempting the same amount of field goals off their bench without Paul or Blake Griffin. Still, his value (or, 93% Bargain Rating) at DraftKings allows the flexibility to use him in cash.
Much like Wednesday, the real decision in cash games comes down to Jordan or Plumlee. You might be able to get away with Jefferson at DraftKings (if only for his aforementioned salary there), but Plumlee saves $2,100 if choosing him over Jordan at FanDuel. I won’t argue that Jordan has a higher ceiling, but since we’re talking overall lineup construction, it likely comes down to a 2-vs-2 battle between the combinations of Courtney Lee/Jordan or Crawford/Plumlee. And if that is the case, I would clearly lean the latter.
Good luck!
