Let’s do this.
Toronto Raptors (-1.5) at Indiana Pacers
Implied Totals: 97.3 – 95.8, O/U: 193
Paul George and Kevin Durant are finally involved in a slate with other viable options at small forward, but the former is still arguably the top option in cash. Despite a blowout in Game 3, George logged a team-high 41.9 minutes. With his spot in the rotation secure no matter the score, George is a safe play regardless of the minuscule total involved. Though clearly not as strong of an option, DeMarre Carroll might actually be more valuable, given his 98 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Now that his minutes limit is clearly a thing of the past, Carroll, too, is just too cheap to pass on in cash lineups.
We’ve seen Jonas Valanciunas fall into foul trouble twice now this series, and yet he has finished with 12-19 and 9-14 point-rebound stat lines on separate occasions. His price has increased across sites, but he’s still arguably the strongest option among centers. Still, he should possibly be faded in tournaments, as his foul issues could be problematic and exploitable if his ownership is high. Also, there are enough options to pivot to at his position.
DeMar DeRozan finally broke out for 31 DraftKings points in Game 3, but that performance is arguably his ceiling in this particular matchup. Even with a 93 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, I’m not too sure I’d be in a hurry to go back to him. Kyle Lowry, on the other hand, is once again a terrific tournament option with a sustainable floor. He also has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among point guards in this slate.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets (-2.5)
Implied Totals: 99 – 101.5, O/U: 200.5
Jeremy Lin is just one of the reasons why DeRozan isn’t a necessary play at shooting guard tonight. Without Nicolas Batum (out for the remainder of the first round), Lin has averaged 31.1 DraftKings points this season. Even if he weren’t able to reach that total, he has salary-adjusted expectations of only 15.3 points at FanDuel. That alone makes him an extremely valuable option in cash. Kemba Walker is a tournament option simply because the Hornets are favored. His Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.33, however, suggests that one should have limited exposure to him.
Hassan Whiteside and Luol Deng have both dominated Charlotte’s frontcourt, essentially sapping opportunities from Goran Dragic. Deng especially is a breath of fresh air at FanDuel, where numerous strong options are hard to come by at his position. Considering that he qualifies at small forward on DraftKings, he’s, at the least, worthy of a flex or utility spot alongside Durant or George.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) at Dallas Mavericks
Implied Totals: 105.3 – 96.3, O/U: 201.5
It’s hard to imagine Justin Anderson, Deron Williams (both questionable), and JJ Barea (probable) all sitting out, but it’s certainly a possibility. If so, Devin Harris would be a mandatory play (especially at his minimum salary at FanDuel). If only Anderson and Williams were ruled out, exposure should be focused more towards Barea, who has averaged 32 DraftKings points as the Mavericks starting point guard this season (and has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings). Raymond Felton is a cash play.
Although the spread implies a closer game, stacking Russell Westbrook and Durant is still the contrarian approach for tournaments. If you choose only one, Westbrook appears to be the clear-cut option at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. As mentioned earlier, I would still prioritize George in cash games at small forward. Enes Kanter also warrants tournament consideration, as he is one of the more valuable options at center and offers Upside similar to that of Valanciunas. He also has salary-adjusted expectations of only 17.48 points at FanDuel.
Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5) at Portland Trailblazers
Implied Totals: 104.5 – 103, O/U: 207.5
Given the closer spread and high total, Chris Paul is arguably the strongest option at his position (yes, even in a slate with Westbrook). The same goes for Blake Griffin at DraftKings, whom our models still show with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent despite a Salary Change of +$200. DeAndre Jordan is a great cash option, with the highest projected floor among centers, and he additionally can be rostered in tournaments, as many people will either pay up for Whiteside or down for Valanciunas. Averaging 43 DraftKings points against Portland this series, Jordan additionally has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among centers.
It’s a much better spot for Damian Lillard now that the Trailblazers are back home, but he’s still not viable in cash. For tournaments, however, the contrarian approach would clearly be to stack all of Lillard-Maurice Harkless-Al-Farouq Aminu-Mason Plumlee in hopes that Portland goes back to that lineup (which actually showed signs of hope) early and often. Each of those four players, after all, logged at least 31.4 minutes in Game 2.
Good luck!
