Let’s do this.
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)
Implied Totals: 99.8 – 106.3, O/U: 206
In Boston’s last five games without Avery Bradley (out tonight), only Jae Crowder (35.8) has averaged more minutes than Evan Turner (33.9). Given the landscape of off-ball guard, he’s the clear-cut option in cash games at his position. Whether it’s projected floor or ceiling you prefer, Turner sits atop both. Isaiah Thomas warrants the same consideration at DraftKings among points guards, as each and every one of his peripherals shines in tonight’s player pool — 12 Pro Trends, 99 Percent Bargain Rating, Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6, and seven percent Dud Rate.
Dennis Schroder was sparingly used for only 11.4 minutes in Game 1. Assuming Atlanta’s rotation settles a bit more (with this being the playoffs and all), Jeff Teague (36.4 minutes) is both an elite tournament option and cash play (if one chooses to pass on Thomas). Teague remains a value specifically at DraftKings where his -$1300 Salary Change has allowed for an immaculate Dud Rate of zero percent.
Al Horford and Paul Millsap should both be rostered if at possible, but you’ll clearly have to save somewhere in order to fit both. Horford appears to have even fewer options to roster behind him than Millsap. The latter’s floor and overall Projected Plus/Minus remain higher on both accounts, but it might be better to pay less for someone like Zach Randolph or LaMarcus Aldridge than to pay less for a center like Tim Duncan (whose minutes hinge on an 18-point spread) or Jared Sullinger.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-18)
Implied Totals: 84.5 – 102.5, O/U: 187
Last year, San Antonio’s core players saw their minutes skyrocket above their seasonal average once the playoffs came around. On Sunday, though, Kawhi Leonard, Duncan, and Aldridge all played well below their seasonal average. With another gigantic spread on the table, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a similar outcome. Of course, you could use that to your advantage in tournaments, but that would also entail stacking a brutally-paced game. Zach Randolph and Lance Stephenson appear to be the only players worth considering if you use that strategy, given their high Bargain Ratings at DraftKings. Still, they respectively have a -2.11 and -2.36 Opponent Plus/Minus. That’s not ideal.
Good luck!
