Let’s get to it.
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5)
Implied Totals: 94.8 – 105.3, O/U: 200
Despite having an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.22 today, Andre Drummond arguably makes for the strongest cash option at DraftKings, given his 12 Pro Trends and 95 percent Bargain Rating. His overall Rating at FanDuel remains slightly less due to an $800 increase in salary, but note his average of 44.4 DraftKings points in three games against Cleveland this season.
Since we’re looking at this slate as a whole, Reggie Jackson is seemingly the second-best option at his position (we’ll get to the first later), but he pales in comparison to Kyrie Irving, especially at FanDuel. With a projected floor 8.2 points greater than Jackson’s, Irving remains the play there. At DraftKings, though, Jackson is valued higher. Implied to score only 27.69 points, Jackson has averaged 38.8 on a team-high usage rate of 31.3 percent against Cleveland this season.
Even though his price has seen an uptick of $500 at DraftKings, LeBron James is clearly the strongest cash option at small forward no matter the format. His regular season average versus Detroit was 4.91 points fewer than his implied total tonight, but his Projected Plus/Minus of +7.1 remains the highest of his positon. Kevin Love warrants equivalent consideration at FanDuel, where his reduced salary implies only 27.95 points — but he averaged only 1.0 point fewer than James vs. Detroit this season.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-4.5)
Implied Totals: 97.5 – 102, O/U: 199.5
While Drummond remains the play at DraftKings for all aforementioned reasons, Hassan Whiteside warrants equivalent consideration at FanDuel in cash games. Not only is he implied to score a much lower total of 34.93 points there, but his projected ceiling and floor remain the highest among centers. For tournaments, Al Jefferson should be looked at heavily given his under-the-radar average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. In fact, I would think he has a better chance of sticking in the rotation than Jeremy Lin, now that everyone is healthy.
With a Bargain Rating of 98 percent at DraftKings, Dwayne Wade is easily the strongest option among off-ball guards. Additionally, Nicolas Batum has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent (and costs $100 less), but his Projected Plus/Minus and floor remain -1 and -4.2 points lower than Wade’s. If you are choosing only one, it’s an easy call.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-15.5)
Implied Totals: 87 -102.5, O/U: 189.5
Given the small size of the slate, there might be some edge to rostering a few players from Memphis, but this is just a friendly reminder that we’re now dealing with San Antonio in the postseason. Tim Duncan, for instance, averaged 28.9 minutes during the regular season last year and then averaged 35.7 in the playoffs. Given that their optimal lineup will now receive regular playing time, you should be rostering Duncan (99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel) or Kawhi Leonard (second-highest projected floor among small forwards) rather than toying around with anyone on Memphis.
Portland Trailblazers at Los Angeles Clippers (-8.5)
Implied Totals: 100.3 – 108.8, O/U: 209
Since Damian Lillard came into the league, Chris Paul has averaged 48.5 DraftKings points against Portland. Though his lowest total over those four seasons just happened to occur this year (38.6), Paul still accumulated a differential of 4.1 DraftKings points over Lillard in four games against one another. Given his minuscule difference of $400 in salary, Paul is the obvious choice between the two at DraftKings. There’s an argument to be had for Lillard at FanDuel, however, as that’s where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. Still, even in that particular case, Paul should probably remain the focus in cash.
Blake Griffin averaged only 24.5 minutes in five outings post-injury and his salary at DraftKings ($7,600) shows it. He did, however, log 33.3 minutes against Dallas two performances ago, and rested with notable teammates after rushing out to a large lead over Memphis, as DeAndre Jordan, Paul, and Griffin all played no more than 28 minutes against the Grizzlies. Given that it’s the postseason, there’s not a chance that Griffin plays fewer than 30, making his 99 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings exploitable in cash and tournaments alike.
Jordan has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among centers today, making him an intriguing option, but it still makes sense to pay $100 less for Drummond in cash. The latter’s floor, for instance, is 2.3 points higher. And while JJ Redick really isn’t an option at DraftKings (given the reduced salaries of everyone else at his position), he’s atop the list at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent and the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among off-ball guards.
Good luck!
