Let’s get right into it.
Houston Rockets (-9.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 113.3 – 103.8, O/U: 217
James Harden is the second highest-priced player tonight on DraftKings at $10,700, however we currently peg him to outperform his salary by +6.2 points. I can understand being wary of Harden in cash games because of the potential blowout, but SG is fairly rough tonight — the other usual top options (Middleton and Klay tonight) both have bad matchups. Dwight Howard has an elite matchup (he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.81 tonight), but again, blowout potential. The other guy I’d look at here is Patrick Beverley, who has exceeded expectations in seven of his last eight contests. Maybe some Brewer in tournaments as well.
Going by the Vegas line above — and especially compared to their usual line — Philly is kind of interesting tonight. However, then you look at their rotation and it’s hard to find any player to really pinpoint in either contest format. Both Kendall Marshall and Nik Stauskas are playing tonight, further diluting value in the backcourt. Ish Smith (because of recent play), Covington (because of matchup), and Nerlens Noel (ceiling and matchup) are all worth a quick glance in tournaments, but I wouldn’t go crazy with Philly exposure tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics (-9.5)
Implied Total: 99.0 – 108.5, O/U: 207.5
The Grizzlies shocked everyone Monday by beating the Cavaliers despite having approximately 1.5 healthy players on their roster. As of right now, things aren’t looking they’ll be any healthier tonight — Zach Randolph is doubtful and Mike Conley is already ruled out. Matt Barnes is expected to play, however. The total here isn’t great, but because of the extreme lack of depth, you can look again at Mario Chalmers, Barnes, Tony Allen, Lance Stephenson (*shiver*) and JaMychal Green — all great values at their respective prices. The matchup is tough, but assuming things shake out injury and rotation-wise like Monday, you can get away with mixing and matching the guys listed above in both contest formats.
On the other site, the Celtics are in a great spot as well — the Grizzlies haven’t exactly been a juggernaut defensively since Marc Gasol’s absence, as reflected in their 108.5 implied total. As of now, Kelly Olynyk is “50/50” to play (Sullinger is questionable as well) — if he does, I would avoid the Boston frontcourt altogether; if not, both Amir Johnson and Tyler Zeller are strong plays. The other Celtics we’re typically interested in are all in the same zone of having a decent floor but not super-high ceiling (making them more cash than tournament). Evan Turner might be the best of them at his DK price, but some exposure to Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder wouldn’t be awful — they’re average plays.
New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets (-9)
Implied Total: 100.5 – 109.5, O/U: 210
Speaking of decimated rosters, the Pelicans are without Tyreke Evans (old news) and Eric Gordon (new, out for season). Norris Cole is questionable tonight and if he plays, both him and Jrue Holiday are great options in cash given their workloads. It’s odd that two PGs would be playable together, but they’re splitting time playing off-ball, which makes it fine. Anthony Davis is below $10k. I’ll repeat that: The Brow is under $10k. Play him, especially in tourneys. The rest of the Pellies — Ryan Anderson, Toney Douglas, Dante Cunningham, and Omer Asik — all fall in the “no-play zone”; they’re floor is too low for cash and their ceiling is too low for tournaments.
Centers typically do really well against New Orleans, but unfortunately, the rotation in Charlotte is so spread out that there isn’t value — they’re all playing around 25 minutes or less. As usual, the guys you want are Kemba and Batum — the former is an elite play (both in terms of matchup and recent play) and the latter is probably more cash-y than tournament-y. Both will probably be a little undervalued tonight.
Miami Heat (-2.5) at Milwaukee Bucks
Implied Total: 101.5 – 99.0, O/U: 200.5
#HassanWhiteside4Lyfe. Maxside has been crushing lately and gets a very nice matchup against the Bucks — his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 is pretty enticing. He’s an elite play in all formats. Both Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade are great plays as well — Dragic has been about as consistent as it gets lately and Wade is always a solid play in tourneys (and I’m fine with cash too). Deng has shown that he can still blow up for a nice tourney score every now and then. I wouldn’t dumpster dive in the Heat’s bench; stick to those top guys, and especially Whiteside.
Even Giannis’ “bad” games now are still ridiculous — he didn’t shoot great and his points/rebounds were a bit down last game, but he still ended up with 41.25 DK points. His price is up now to $8,700 and as crazy as it sounds, he’s still really undervalued considering his play. He’s fine in all formats. Middleton has a tougher matchup but is probably a bit underpriced, so he’s a fine, average play. Monroe is a solid fade candidate against Whiteside, and his frontcourt partner in Jabari Parker is one of the hotter NBA players at the moment. Continue to roll him out, like Giannis. Bayless will be popular, but I’m less enthusiastic about him — he’s tourney only for me tonight against the Heat backcourt.
Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5)
Implied Total: 101.0 – 103.5, O/U: 204.5
Stanley Johnson will be out at least four more games for the Pistons — this theoretically opens things up for some of the Detroit wings (KCP, Morris, and Tobias), but they just haven’t been playing well despite high, solid minutes. They’re tournament-only for me. The two Pistons we’re always interested in and very much in play tonight as well — Drummond is absurdly priced and should absolutely be a guy you target tonight. Reggie Jackson also has a nice matchup and while he doesn’t have the consistency of Drummond, he possesses elite upside — great for tournaments.
I’ll keep it short and simple with Dallas — their rotation is such that no player is really in the cash realm tonight. You can throw darts at Dirk (eh), Parsons (better), Deron (even more eh), Matthews (who knows), David Lee (not bad), but I wouldn’t even look at these guys in cash. If anything, mix and match if you play a lot of tournament lineups; if not, I’m fine with a Dallas fade tonight.
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns (-2.5)
Implied Total: 101.3 – 103.8, O/U: 205
Carmelo Anthony has been one of the most consistent DFS players of late, but there’s at least some reason to be hesitant in cash games tonight. The Suns have been nice to target this season, but unfortunately the Knicks just aren’t really set up to exploit that. Porzingis hasn’t show the floor or ceiling we’d like and that goes for just about all of their players. I can get a little on board with a Derrick Williams super-sneaky punt play in tournaments, but then again — if that’s what you’re having to do to play the Knicks, it might be best to just move on.
Alex Len is doing his best to try out-Whiteside Whiteside. His last two games — 54 and 55.3 DK points — have been ridiculous and his salary on DK ($6.6k) is nowhere near where it should be. He’s an elite play and his Opponent Plus/Minus (+1.01) is nice as well. His fellow big man in Tyson Chandler has been surprisingly good the last two games, but I don’t trust the floor or ceiling to go that route. The only guy I’m really looking at other than Len is Devin Booker, who, while inconsistent (like rookies are), has high upside for tourneys.
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5)
Implied Total: 104.8 – 110.3, O/U: 215
Boom, here’s one of the games we definitely want to heavily target. Kevin Durant might be the best player in the world right now (sorry to Steph lovers — just saying it’s debatable with KD’s recent play) and Russ is Russ. They’re elite in every way and you should play them, and especially Durant. Dion Waiters is out tonight, but it’s hard to really be confident in either of the guys who will take his minutes — Roberson has a very low floor no matter his minutes and we just can’t have any confidence that Cam Payne will even see the floor. This is a nice game to go heavy on top guys in Durant and Russ and not stress about the rest.
Given price and matchup, Chris Paul is a better play than Russ tonight, if you’re choosing between PGs in this game. He’s been crushing lately and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.5 is one of the best on the entire slate. Speaking of destroying lately, meet DeAndre Jordan. His matchup is a bit tougher — his Opp Plus/Minus is fairly neutral and both Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka are elite defenders — but Jordan is fairly matchup proof given his role. Play him in tournaments for sure. A semi-sneaky play tonight could be Wes Johnson — he got the Durant matchup and heavy minutes as result last matchup and that’ll likely happen again, especially with LMAM out tonight.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) at Sacramento Kings
Implied Total: 112.0 – 105.0, O/U: 217
The Cavs are projected to score a lot of points, which puts their top guys — LeBron James, of course, but also Kyrie Irving and even maybe Love in great cash-game territory. Timofey Mozgov is questionable to play tonight, which would make Tristan Thompson really interesting, and especially so in tournaments. The Cavs aren’t too confusing right now — play those four (the first two in cash and all four in tourneys) in various lineups. J.R. Smith might be worth a lineup, if only for his crazy high Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.63.
I’m usually skeptical of playing bigs against Cleveland, but no rules apply to Boogie. He would be an elite tournament play against the Monstars. Ben McLemore is questionable, possibly opening up all the minutes for Rondo and Collison to split in the backcourt. Both are tournament-only plays, however, and the same goes with Rudy Gay — they all have upside (considering their prices), but also lower floors than we’d like in cash, and especially so in this matchup (although Vegas doesn’t think it’ll be that bad).
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-13)
Implied Total: 97.0 – 110.0, O/U: 207
This is just a bad matchup for Utah, plain and simple. The Warriors are actually bad against PGs this year — Raul Neto, for example, has a really high Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8 tonight — but that’s simultaneously Utah’s biggest weakness. Hayward has been consistent lately, and both Favors and Gobert have really high upsides, but temper expectations and subsequent exposure — matchups against Iggy, Draymond, and Bogut are not ones you want to sweat in cash games. Finally, make sure to monitor news on Rodney Hood, who is currently questionable.
The Warriors are big favorites as usual, but the total is much less than we’re used to seeing in GS games. The Jazz have elite defenders in Gobert, Favors, and even Hayward — and they play at a slow enough pace that this might not be the greatest spot for the Warriors, at least in relation to their salaries, which are generally priced at their usual high-total games. Steph is always fine in all contests, but perhaps limit exposure to the rest — mostly Klay and Draymond — to tournaments only.
Good luck tonight!
