It’s a slate in which lineup lock, for whatever reason, occurs precisely at 3:30ET, which makes injury news as important as ever given the early start.
Let’s get to it.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-7) at Milwaukee Bucks
Implied Total: 113 – 106, O/U: 219
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook obviously make for terrific cash plays, but we can still delve a bit deeper. Durant, for instance, has exceeded expectations by +17 points in his last five games, averaging a team-high 61 DraftKings points in that span (though Westbrook trails that total by only -3.7). Westbrook, on the other hand, still includes a Bargain Rating of 81% at FanDuel (and is Rated higher than Stephen Curry at FanDuel despite his projected floor being -1.4 points lower than the latter). Like I said: they’re ‘ok’ in cash.
Though a Bargain Rating of 90% at DraftKings, I don’t think you need Giannis Antetokounmpo today. He’s a spectacular play, sure, but given overall roster construction, it makes more sense to either find a way up to Durant or pay down for lesser options guaranteed minutes (which we’ll get to) at his position. Still: all of he, Khris Middleton, and Jabari Parker have astonishingly recorded a Dud Percentage of 0% over their last 10 games. Jerryd Bayless remains a tournament option only at FanDuel where he’s implied to score 14.86 points – his implied total increases to 18.95 at DraftKings.
Golden State Warriors (-16.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 119.5 – 103, O/U: 222
With both Kobe Bryant and Jordan Clarkson questionable for this afternoon, D’Angelo Russell is yet again considered mandatory in cash games. Along with a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 98% at FanDuel, Russell is set to oppose the Warriors where they’ve been exploited for an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.64. Though finishing with the worst raw plus/minus among the 11 Lakers that logged minutes Friday against Atlanta, note Russell had exceeded expectations by +19.39 points in the four games prior. Marcelo Huertas would qualify as a strong tournament option if both Bryant and Clarkson were ruled out – he’s averaged 31.3 minutes in consecutive outings.
With a hobbled Andre Iguodala (doubtful for today) mustering only 14.3 minutes in their last two games, Harrison Barnes has logged 36.2 minutes at forward. He’s considered a much more valuable tournament play at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 97% — our models show Barnes with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.5 at DraftKings. And, despite a salary ranging anywhere from $10,600 to $11K, Curry has recorded a Dud Percentage of 0% over his last 10 games. His projected floor is +1.6 points higher than that of Westbrook’s — the latter costs an additional +$200.
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5)
Implied Total: 98.5 – 109, O/U: 207.5
Does Alex Len cost $10K yet? No? In that case, he’s still an elite cash option. Even in facing Memphis (who have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.45 allowed to centers), note the Grizzlies have allowed +14 more DraftKings points per game to opposing centers since Marc Gasol was initially shelved for the year. Len, of course, has not only exceeded expectations by +12.03 points in his last 10 games, but has bested that by recording a Plus/Minus of +19.48 since Kris Humphries was waived. He still includes a Bargain Rating of 90% at FanDuel. And don’t worry about that spread: Len has logged the most fourth-quarter minutes for Phoenix in his last four games.
Zach Randolph will likely be considered a cash option for the remainder of the season given his team-high usage of 25.4 since Gasol went down, but Mike Conley has averaged a mirror-image 31.2 minutes in that span. Despite a few less-than-stellar performances in his last three games, he remains a terrific play given Phoenix’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.89 allowed to point guards. The Suns have also allowed the third-most DraftKings points to his position over their last five games.
Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) at Denver Nuggets
Implied Total: 107 – 103.5, O/U: 210.5
This is certainly a game in which you have to have a short memory (in terms of performances), but at what point do we throw in the towel on Will Barton? It’s been three games since Danilo Gallinari went down, and in that span, Barton has (somehow) produced -2.7 fewer DraftKings points than D.J. Augustin (who’s averaged -10.9 fewer minutes). The good news is that Barton has attempted the third-most shots for Denver in his last three performances. Unfortunately, shooting 26.5% on those attempts isn’t helping. He’s rendered to a tournament play for now, while Gary Harris – team-high 38.5 minutes without Gallinari – and Emmanuel Mudiay (38.4 DraftKings points in that span) remain arguably the strongest cash plays in their back court.
Since debuting with the Mavericks, David Lee has yet to record fewer than 1.4 DraftKings points per minute in any outing. But, although Lee makes for more of a tournament play at FanDuel given his 81% Bargain Rating, Chandler Parsons is the play in cash – he’s exceeded expectations by +12.06 points over his last four games. And, seeing as he still has a Bargain Rating of 90% at FanDuel, I wouldn’t mind going back to Wesley Matthews despite his recent letdown of 17.6 FanDuel points – he exceeded expectations by +13.28 in the five games prior.
Portland Trailblazers (-1) at Detroit Pistons
Implied Total: 103.3 – 102.3, O/U: 205.5
His ownership will clearly be high given his most recent performance of 62.25 DraftKings points, but Damian Lillard has yet again been served a superb matchup: Detroit has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.92 allowed to point guards. He remains the strongest (if only) cash play in Portland as C.J. McCollum, although a 75% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, is set to play opposite of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Tobias Harris and Reggie Jackson are once again considered strong cash options (as both are Rated in the top-five in our Phan Model at their positions), but Andre Drummond’s Pro Trends heading into tonight are worth mentioning:
Note his Dud Percentage of 0% over his last 10 games. He’s also recorded more DraftKings points (42.9) than any other center in today’s slate over that time.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-14.5)
Implied Total: 98.8 – 113.3, O/U: 212
With no Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel (or Kendall Marshall and Nik Stauskas) available for Philadelphia again today, the 76ers are basically forced to play a six-man rotation as T.J. McConnell remains on a minutes restriction. Having said that, all of Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, and even Richaun Holmes are more than viable in cash games. Ish Smith has exceeded expectations by +9.25 points in his last five games but remains more of a tournament play given Miami’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.06 at his position.
Hassan Whiteside has recorded at least 50.7 DraftKings points in five of his last eight performances. In that same span, Goran Dragic has averaged 37.3 DraftKings points on a team-high 34.4 minutes (as their pace since the All-Star Break has been +6.2 possessions faster than their season average). You know what to do.
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors (-7)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 110.8, O/U: 214.5
Whether you’re a fan of narrative or just plain ol’ terrific basketball (on one side, anyways), this one’s for you. Houston, for instance, has been exploited for +4.61 points above expectations at the point, +4.14 to off-ball guards. That makes both Kyle Lowry – 56.3 DraftKings points in his last five games – and DeMar DeRozan essential cash options. Jonas Valanciunas remains an under-the-radar tournament play as he’s quietly shot 68.4% from the field over his last five games. Note the Rockets have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55 allowed to opposing centers and Valanciunas, although bunched in among all lower-priced centers at DraftKings, has a -$1,100 price difference across sites.
I’d be much more inclined to take a second visit to the Dwight Howard-well before rostering James Harden (in cash) in today’s slate. For starters, Toronto has limited opposing shooting guards to a bottom-four rate of DraftKings points on the season (and bottom-two in their last 10 games). Harden’s Projected Plus/Minus of +7.1 is the highest among off-ball guards, but this appears to be a day in which you pay up at, say, point guard or small forward rather than shooting guard (especially at FanDuel where Harden’s salary increases +$400). Howard, on the other hand, fresh off of a ‘poor’ performance of 25.5 DraftKings points, squares off against Toronto’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49 allowed to centers.
Good luck!
