A trend featuring particular team’s performances in back-to-backs this season seems relevant:
Of course, if wanting to delve further, you can always use our Trends tools to filter back-to-backs to home and road only. Meanwhile, I’ll be here.
Let’s get to it.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5)
Implied Total: 102 – 109.5, O/U: 211.5
Kevin Love was the first to fall victim to Tyronn Lue’s recently proclaimed “rest” approach, seeing Kyrie Irving and LeBron James attempt a team-high 18 field goal each. Love is fully expected to play, however, and, in turn, would likely see increased production if someone else (LeBron?) were rested instead. In the event that happens, note Richard Jefferson has logged a team-high 35.8 minutes in two games without their star forward as the Cavaliers have typically opted to keep a smaller rotation throughout – neither Timofey Mozgov or Tristan Thompson have logged greater than 23 minutes in said instances. If Irving rides the pine (all speculative, of course), note Matthew Dellavedova has recorded the most time at point guard (28.6 minutes) under those circumstances while Love has averaged 36.8 DraftKings points.
If any guard or forward were to sit, of course, that would also likely place Iman Shumpert in Cleveland’s starting-unit. And if that were the case, it would be best to fade Boston’s backcourt entirely. Isaiah Thomas’ salary has finally caught up at DraftKings –now $7,600, whereas he’s cost $7,800 at FanDuel in the two games prior – but, despite his 10 Pro Trends, there are stronger options if paying up at point. Jae Crowder would be considered a strong cash play if LeBron were absent as Cleveland’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.78 allowed to small forwards would clearly be nigh if, rather, it were Jefferson at the three.
Detroit Pistons (-5) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 102.5 – 97.5, O/U: 200
He’s never more than a tournament option given his roller-coaster-like production, but Robin Lopez finds himself in another terrific matchup as Detroit has allowed +2.15 points above salary-based expectations at his position. He’s arguably the only convinving play for the Knicks as they’re implied to score the fewest points of any team in this slate. You can make a case for Carmelo Anthony, but note the Pistons Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.92 allowed at his position.
If both Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris hadn’t of stumbled into foul trouble only two games prior, there wouldn’t be any worry as to Detroit’s relevance in cash. The starting unit of Reggie Jackson-Kentavious Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Harris-Andre Drummond, after all, have been the only players to log 30-plus minutes for the Pistons since Harris initially debuted. Given his 93% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Harris is once again considered an elite cash option. The same can be said for Reggie Jackson, who our models show with the highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards at FanDuel.
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards (-2)
Implied Total: 102.3 – 104.3, O/U: 207.5
Markieff Morris has averaged 29.3 DraftKings points in 29.8 minutes over his last three games. He’s logged -13.3 fewer minutes in the instances Nene has been healthy over that span, but his salary at FanDuel still includes a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s more viable as a tournament option, whereas John Wall and Marcin Gortat remain elite cash plays due to Indiana’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.19/+1.72 at their respective positions.
Much has been made about Washington’s struggles in defending wings, but they’ve actually limited opposing small forwards and shooting guards to the fourth and sixth-fewest DraftKings points over their last 10 games. That knocks Monta Ellis down a peg (despite his Bargain Rating of 86% at DraftKings), but leaves Paul George as plausible an option as any: he’s averaged 40.6 DraftKings points, -0.1 fewer than Carmelo Anthony (who costs +$200 more), in his last 12 performances,
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans (-2)
Implied Total: 97.8 – 99.8, O/U: 197.5
I mean, we’ve already done this, right? Shelvin Mack, spectacular matchup, underpriced, etc.? He offers nothing offensively and remains a much better real-life player than DFS permits, but he’s averaged a usage of 22.8 in 28 minutes in Utah’s starting unit. I realize it’s my job to steer you in a particular direction, but eff that: roster him at your own discretion (while noting his projected floor of 4.7).
When Alvin Gentry claimed that Eric Gordon wouldn’t have any restrictions upon returning, he wasn’t kidding: Gordon has averaged 33.1 minutes in his last three games. In their last two, however (along with Anthony Davis, who sat in Gordon’s first game back), Norris Cole has logged +3.8 more minutes than Jrue Holiday, who’s logged 28.8 in that span. While the latter (unfortunately) at this time remains stricken to tournaments, Gordon is as strong an option as any in cash. Still, limited exposure is warranted as this total is the lowest of the night.
Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 109.3, O/U: 213
Sam Mitchell benched the lot of Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns only a few minutes into the third quarter last night due to lack of defense – Minnesota had been outscored 49-14 in the 12 minutes prior. Though these types of shenanigans (although, in this case, respectable) are always on the table with Mitchell, Towns remains the highest-Rated center in our Phan Model due to his absurd Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings. Zach LaVine remains the play at FanDuel where his Bargain Rating of 93% opposes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94. The Wolves are also implied to score the second-most points of any team in this slate.
Thaddeus Young has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute (39.6 in 36.6) over his last five games. With the fourth-highest projected floor among power forwards, Young, who’s accumulated an immaculate Dud Percentage of only 9% in his last 11 performances, is a top-two option at his position. Note his implied total of 27.95 at FanDuel, whereas his salary at DraftKings imply he score at least 30.91.
Houston Rockets (-1) at Chicago Bulls
Implied Total: 108.3 – 107.3, O/U: 215.5
As the highest implied total in tonight’s slate, Houston’s minuscule edge of -1 certainly stands out. If simply using logic, I can only assume that means Vegas isn’t concerned about Jimmy Butler in the slightest as he’s fully expected to play (barring a setback in warm-ups). Considering there are no reported restrictions at this time, he’s a terrific tournament play – Houston has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.67 allowed at his position — but lesser option in cash – our models show him with a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.6. That would also project Derrick Rose to take a hit as his team-high usage of 31.0 in 34.2 minutes without Butler plummets to 29.4 in 30.4 when the two start alongside each other.
The Rockets aren’t completely done with the Josh Smith-Experiment, but Donatas Motiejunas logged an additional +2.6 minutes in his last spot-start for Smith. Implied to score the absolute minimum at DraftKings, Motiejunas is a terrific (and easy) fit for tournaments. With Taj Gibson expected to play, exposure on the opposite side is no longer as safe. Bobby Portis, for instance, has averaged -1.9 fewer minutes with Gibson healthy since the All-Star Break. Doug McDermott, who’s averaged 28.8 minutes alongside Gibson in that span, remains an under-the-radar (though more sneaky than stellar) tournament play – along with a Dud Percentage of 0% over his last 11 performances, McDermott is slated to square off against Houston’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2 allowed to small forwards.
Despite a salary greater than $10,600 since January, James Harden has failed to meet expectations only once in his last 11 performances. Given this total (and his projected floor +15.3 points higher than the next closest shooting guard), he’s arguably the easiest cash play in this matchup; ‘arguably’ only due to Dwight Howard, who’s been gifted a matchup with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+7.22!) allowed to centers in this slate.
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs (-13)
Implied Total: 98 – 111, O/U: 210
Rajon Rondo now includes a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 99% at DraftKings. It’s considered more of an “anti-fragile” strategy for tournaments (as opting to burn your money is safer than playing anyone against the Spurs in cash), but note Rondo has averaged a line of 7.5-7-15 in two games versus San Antonio this season. Given his lowly price-point, I’d be more than happy to give him limited exposure despite an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.64 at his position. Same GPP-stance goes for DeMarcus Cousins, who’s averaged 41.8 DraftKings points against San Antonio this season – he’s implied to score 45.17.
This is likely your last chance to be picked up by the Kawhi Leonard-cash-train that Jay Persson and I have been driving for the last week. (But really, it’s a train: I don’t have the kind of money to purchase and pick you up in a Benz.) Leonard, for example, has exceeded expectations by +12.96 points over his last eight games. If worried about his minutes, note he’s logged a team-high 35.4 in that span. If worried about his production in said minutes, note he’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over that time. And if worried about anything else in his peripherals, note to shut the hell up and roster him.
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5)
Implied Total: 97.5 – 103, O/U: 200.5
With the second-lowest total in this slate, exposure, though lovely if obtainable, isn’t exactly necessary towards Chris Paul (in tournaments, anyways). Sure, he’ll arguably be the highest scoring option among point guards at night’s end, but note his salary of $10,200 at FanDuel; have at it on DraftKings where he’s implied to score a much more reasonable total of 42.41 points. Jamal Crawford is the choice at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 90% (especially given his team-high usage of 32.1% in their last three games). If seeking a deeper tournament option in Los Angeles, however, I can only assume Wesley Johnson logged 30.9 minutes without Luc Mbah a Moute in their last outing due to being the best option in defending Kevin Durant. Jeff Green, of course, logged +6 more minutes than Johnson in their prior matchup against Brooklyn. This seems like more of a game for the latter, you know, having to defend Kent Bazemore and all.
Despite Al Horford’s Dud Percentage of 10% in the last month, DeAndre Jordan remains the play in the paint: Atlanta has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 allowed to centers. Though “only” the sixth-highest projected floor at his position, Jordan is a terrific option across sites as he’s averaged more fantasy points than either Towns or Howard in his last 10 games.
Good luck!
