Let’s get to it.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers (-8)
Implied Total: 100.5 – 108.5, O/U: 209
Although Kenneth Faried was active Friday, Mike Malone chose to hold him out for the entirety of play. Instead, Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne led the way with 26.3 and 24.5 minutes. Since I’m still not entirely sure if there’s an accurate way to predict Denver’s rotation, I would look to lean on 1) Nurkic’s implied total of 17.57 points (in the event that he sees the most time at center) and 2) D.J. Augustin’s shockingly efficient play:
While Chris Paul remains a strong cash-game option due to his Dud Percentage of seven percent in the last month, Jamal Crawford is considered a viable tournament option. He has averaged 28.3 DraftKings points in 32.9 minutes over his last three games.
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers (-1)
Implied Total: 104.8 – 105.8, O/U: 210.5
In the unlikely event that James Harden (expected to play) is ruled out, note Michael Beasley’s usage of 42.1% with the Harden off the floor over his last 10 games. Implied to score only 19.87 points, Beasley has exceeded expectations by +8.43 points in that span. Harden should be considered a mandatory staple in cash games if healthy, as he has averaged 62.4 DraftKings points over his last six games. Patrick Beverley deserves the same consideration at DraftKings, where he has an incredulously underpriced Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Along with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus at his position, Paul George’s $200 decrease in salary overnight is even more reason to pay up at the position today. In being the only small forward priced above $6,200, Paul has a projected floor that is 11.9 points greater than the next player at his position. Ian Mahinmi is also an under-the-radar cash-game option, as his Opponent Plus/Minus remains the highest among centers at DraftKings.
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings (-1.5)
Implied Total: 107.5 – 109, O/U: 216.5
With a Bargain Rating of 95 percent at DraftKings, Dirk Nowitzki (rather than DeMarcus Cousins) is arguably the strongest play among power forwards. With the most Pro Trends at his position, Nowitzki has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.23 in this slate. His Dud Percentage of eight percent should come as no shock when viewing his recent play:
J.J. Barea finished with 35.3 DraftKings points in his last start for Deron Williams (who remains out for the next two games). That performance, however, occurred without Devin Harris. Although Barea averages 30.7 minutes without Williams this season, his playing time sinks to 25.7 minutes alongside Harris. Given his incredulous increase of $700 overnight, Barea should be rostered only at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. Raymond Felton (starting in place of Chandler Parsons) remains a cash-game option, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.67.
Again: If choosing only one, I would lean toward Nowitzki over Cousins due to price point. Fortunately, both can (and should) be rostered at DraftKings, where Cousins’ salary of $10,500 (though high) has still allowed him to produce an immaculate Dud Percentage of zero percent over the last month.
Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors (-20.5)
Implied Total: 102 – 122.5, O/U: 224.5
On the surface, this total of 224.5 points qualifies as the highest of the night. Look closer, however, and you’ll notice that the Warriors opening score of 123.3 points is actually the second-highest total of any team this season. Coincidentally, the highest remains their own implied total of 123.8 points against the Pelicans two weeks ago. They won 125-107 that evening. Though a blowout is certainly worrisome, exposure towards Golden State begins and ends with Stephen Curry. Along with the highest projected floor among point guards, Curry’s Projected Plus/Minus remains +2.9 points greater than the next player at his position. Even with an implied 46.55 points, he has averaged 50.6 points over the last month and remains a fine option in both cash games and tournaments alike.
There are essentially two ways to approach Philadelphia in tournaments:
- Assume the 76ers are blow out and roster players expected to receive extended run (Nik Stauskas, Hollis Thompson, etc.) in the fourth quarter (or, better yet, avoiding them entirely).
- Stack the 76ers in order to receive a contrarian edge on those assuming a runaway. That would involve leaning on Ish Smith, who has a 90 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Even prior to his 50.5 DraftKings points performance last night, Smith had recorded a Dud Percentage of only seven percent over the last month. Robert Covington would be the other piece worth owning, as he has averaged 35.3 DraftKings points since returning from injury.
Washington Wizards (-8.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 111 – 102.5, O/U: 213.5
No matter D’Angelo Russell’s status (doubtful) at tip-off, Kobe Bryant’s being confirmed to play means that Julius Randle remains a strong option. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.67, but Randle has averaged 31.8 DraftKings points in 28.3 minutes alongside Bryant this season, and those averages plummet to 26.6 points in 26.7 minutes when Bryant has been ruled inactive. Lou Williams is also a strong tournament play, as he has averaged 26.8 DraftKings points in his last two games without Russell.
Implied to score 4.52 fewer points at FanDuel, John Wall should reap the benefits of his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.68. He has also exceeded expectations by +7.76 points over his last six games. As strong of an option as Wall is, however, Marcin Gortat is arguably the top cash-game play in Washington. Our models show Gortat with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in this slate (at FanDuel). Implied to score only 24.9 points at FanDuel, note Gortat’s average of 31.7 points over his last five games. Otto Porter is also considered an elite cash-game option, as his recent $200 increase in salary isn’t prohibitive or sufficient: Porter has exceeded expectations by +11.20 points over his last eight games.
