Let’s get to it.
Indiana Pacers (-5.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 104 – 98.5, O/U: 202.5
With Paul George questionable for tonight, note Jordan Hill has logged the most minutes at the four with the former off the floor over the last month (per NBAwowy). It’s entirely possible that Indiana will choose to start C.J. Miles at small forward much sooner than rotating Myles Turner, but Hill remains a valuable play either way: he’s implied to score only 14.81 points. George Hill remains an elite cash play at DraftKings no matter George’s status — still implied to score 21.71 points, Hill has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.03 in this slate. Tournament exposure should be all in on Paul George if active, as Brooklyn has allowed the most DraftKings points to small forwards over their last five games.
Assuming Shane Larkin receives his second consecutive start, it’s too good of matchup (and too low of salary) to concern yourself with his floor (which, by the way, isn’t good). Having logged 30.8 minutes in Brooklyn’s last game, Larkin has now exceeded expectations by +9.85 points in his last three performances. With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27, his recent salary increase of $500 still isn’t enough to stay off him in cash. Brook Lopez remains the strongest cash option in Brooklyn no matter ,as his ludicrous 97% Bargain Rating at DraftKings also includes a fortuitous Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.72.
Chicago Bulls (-4.5) at Orlando Magic
Implied Total: 107.3 – 102.8, O/U: 210
No team in this slate has allowed more DraftKings points to power forwards than Orlando has over their last five games. Unfortunately, the status of Pau Gasol (questionable, although expected to play) leaves a lot to be decided. While Taj Gibson would typically benefit, he’s implied to score 21.71 points (a feat he’s achieved in only three of his last six performances). In turn, exposure towards Nikola Mirotic in tournaments seems to be the stronger play as he includes a Bargain Rating of 86% at DraftKings. His Projected Plus/Minus of +7.0 also qualifies as third highest among power forwards.
Although his salary has risen $200 since Chicago’s last outing, Derrick Rose remains an elite cash play at DraftKings due to his Bargain Rating of 97%. Additionally, he includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.32 in this slate. Whether Gasol suits up or not, note Rose’s salary leaves very little room for letdown as he’s produced a Dud Percentage of only 9% over the last month.
Mario Hezonja logged a team-high 36.7 minutes in place of Victor Oladipo (questionable) last night, but his disastrous floor leaves little reason to roster him a second time (sorry, HezonjaLabs). Instead, Elfrid Payton should be considered the pivot — in six games without Oladipo, Payton has averaged 35.1 DraftKings points in 35.2 minutes. I’m also inclined to load up on Aaron Gordon (and inevitably hate myself) for the second straight night, as long as both Nikola Vucevic and Ersan Ilyasova are out: though a measly 14 DraftKings points last night, Gordon logged 34.7 minutes as their primary power forward. He’s averaged only 26.7 minutes in the last five games alongside Ilyasova.
Toronto Raptors (-8) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Total: 104.8 – 96.8, O/U: 200.5
Forget Kyle Lowry’s most recent 4-for-19 performance from the field and instead focus on the fact that the Pelicans have allowed the most DraftKings points to point guards over their last five games. With a Bargain Rating of 86% at DraftKings, Lowry’s advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.79 includes the most Pro Trends (11) at his position. In fact, only Russell Westbrook has averaged more DraftKings points (53.7/45.5) among point guards over the last month.
Exposure towards the Pelicans once again remains contingent on Jrue Holiday’s status (questionable) at tip-off. Recording a team-high usage rate of 29.3% without Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson, Holiday is once again considered an elite cash option at FanDuel (Bargain Rating of 90%) if active. Tim Frazier and Toney Douglas should be stacked if Holiday were ruled out — both logged an equivalent 28.7 minutes without Holiday Thursday night, firing a respective 11 and 13 field goal attempts each. But, while Omer Asik should remain the focus at FanDuel (where his implied total remains a lowly 13.99), Alexis Ajinca (if starting) is a fantastic roster across sites — he recorded a team-high usage of 32.1% (and 35.8 DraftKings points) without Holiday in their last game. Luke Babbitt is viable only if starting over Alonzo Gee, as he attempted only eight shots off their bench Thursday night.
(Yes, New Orleans’ rotations sound more like a plot from Lost, but … well, you know who to blame … )
Cleveland Cavaliers (-8) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 104.8 – 96.8, O/U: 201.5
In 21 games at Madison Square Garden, LeBron James has averaged 55 DraftKings points on a usage rate of 33.9%. Given his Plus/Minus of +13.08 in his last three performances, James could easily be argued as the most valuable player at DraftKings (where he has a 86% Bargain Rating). Kevin Love should be targeted more at FanDuel where his lowly salary of $6,600 imply he score only 25.77 points. As for Matthew Dellavedova (starting in place of Kyrie Irving), his limited upside (but implied total of 12.97) makes him more of a cash play — he’s averaged 22.9 DraftKings points in 28.6 minutes without Irving this season.
Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis have benefitted immensely from playing Chicago in back-to-back performances — they’ve averaged 39.5 and 40.5 DraftKings points in that span. Although a mirror-image Bargain Rating of 86% for both at DraftKings, note their horrific Opponent Plus/Minus’ of -2.57 (for Anthony) and -3.43. Chalk their frontcourt up to a unit worth avoiding (Robin Lopez included) rather than actual chalk.
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons (-1.5)
Implied Total: 102.3 – 103.8, O/U: 206
First and foremost, Kent Bazemore’s post-game video bomb remains arguably the most elite play in this slate:
His ownership will likely be high given his performance of 18-14 and three blocks just last night, but it’s not considered points chasing if looking to recycle Andre Drummond: along with double-digit Pro Trends, Drummond has a whopping Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2 in this slate. His projected floor also qualifies as second highest among centers.
Utah Jazz (-7.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves
Implied Total: 101.5 – 94, O/U: 195.5
Despite failing to meet expectations by -6.31 points in his last two games, Shelvin Mack remains a strong cash option at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 81% — he had exceeded expectations by +14.46 points in the seven games prior. As for tournament exposure, there is literally no better feast-or-famine play than Rudy Gobert at this time: implied to score only 20.97 points at FanDuel, Gobert has failed to achieve that total in five of his last eight performances. Even so, note his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.28 (and likely non-existent ownership).
It’s admittedly not the best of spots for Karl-Anthony Towns — Utah has allowed the fewest DraftKings points to centers over their last five games — but he remains absurdly underpriced at DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 98%). Along with the highest-projected floor among centers, Towns additionally includes the highest Projected Plus/Minus of his position. He remains the strongest play in both cash and tournaments alike for Minnesota.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-12)
Implied Total: 97 – 109, O/U: 206
Our models show Kevin Durant with an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.48, but that clearly shouldn’t matter now that San Antonio’s entire first string (Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan) have all been ruled out. In fact, the most optimal tournament strategy for tonight’s slate might even be to stack both Durant and Westbrook (seeing as most will immediately assume blowout). Enes Kanter is also a tremendous tournament option due in part to his recent consistency:
Kevin Martin logged a team-high 33.5 minutes against the Grizzlies last night, but note the presence of Danny Green (28.1 minutes over the last month) will likely render him to his atypical 13.4 minutes he had averaged since debuting. Rather, tournament exposure remains viable towards Andre Miller, Boris Diaw, and David West, as all are likely to be featured in the aforementioned list’s absence. Kyle Anderson remains more of a fringe-cash option as his minimum salary includes minuscule upside.
Charlotte Hornets (-3.5) at Milwaukee Bucks
Implied Total: 103.5 – 100, O/U: 203.5
Since seeing his salary hike above $9K, Giannis Antetokounmpo has exceeded expectations by a measly +0.65 points. Now withholding zero edge — he’s implied to score 43.33 points before even returning value — our models show Antetokounmpo with a horrid Projected Plus/Minus of -6.3. I’d be much more inclined to chase John Henson’s implied total of 13.43, as he’s averaged 21.4 DraftKings points in his last five games.
With Marvin Williams healthy again, Jeremy Lin — 37.1 DraftKings points in his previous two performances — logged only 23.1 minutes. Given his salary increase of $700, the ship has likely sailed if looking to reap the rewards of his additional run. No matter: Nicolas Batum remains an integral cash option as his 93% Bargain Rating at DraftKings has helped produce an immaculate Dud Percentage of only 7% over the last month.
Boston Celtics (-9) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 112 -103, O/U: 215
Jon Leuer’s poor performance against Sacramento last night (due to early foul trouble) is all the more reason to go right back to him. Assuming Tyson Chandler is out, note Leuer (implied to score only 19.41 points) had exceeded expectations by +26 points in the two games prior to running into DeMarcus Cousins. He also includes an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.20. If Chander is ruled active, I would simply get off Leuer entirely. Either way, Alex Len should remain strictly a tournament play as he’s failed to meet expectations in seven of his last 10 performances — he’s averaged 28.9 DraftKings points on 33.9% shooting in that span.
If Avery Bradley (questionable) suits up, he’d make for a tremendous tournament play at DraftKings where his Bargain Rating of 90% includes the highest Opponent Plus/Minus of any off-ball guard in this slate (+4.2). Marcus Smart would be the pivot in his absence, as the former is implied to score only 15.73 points — Smart averaged 18.4 DraftKings points on a usage rate of 21.0% in his last two spot starts. Amir Johnson should remain an essential tournament play in their frontcourt, as he’s exceeded expectations by +14.92 points over his last six games — he’s averaged 27.5 minutes (always the one concern holding him back) in that span.
With a Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel, Brandon Knight (questionable) remains a strong tournament play if active. If a surprise scratch (again), the pivot is simple: Devin Booker has averaged 28.9 DraftKings points on 16.1 field goal attempts in his last 10 games without Knight.
Philadelphia 76ers (-15.5) at Portland Trailblazers
Implied Total: 116 – 100.5, O/U: 216.5
With Nerlens Noel considered doubtful to play, I would be just fine in going right back to Carl Landry — in seven starts this season, Landry is averaging exactly 1.0 DraftKings point per minute. Jerami Grant should have exposure at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 81%. And finally, Ish Smith remains the strongest cash play of the trio at DraftKings where his recent decrease in salary now implies he score only 24.93 points in order to return value — he’s quietly produced a Dud Percentage of only 7% over the last month. Note Portland has allowed a top-three rate of DraftKings points to opposing point guards over their last 10 games.
With a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Damian Lillard (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45) is considered mandatory in cash games. Feel free to stack him with both CJ McCollum and Mason Plumlee: the former includes a Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel, while the latter is now averaging +6.7 more DraftKings points in an additional +5.0 minutes without Meyers Leonard (out for the year).
Good luck!
