Let’s get to it.
New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers (-13)
Implied Total: 97.3 – 110.3, O/U: 207.5
Without Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson (out again) in their last two games, Jrue Holiday has averaged 44.6 DraftKings points on a team-high usage rate of 29.3%. Although the third-highest projected floor among point guards at DraftKings, Holiday remains the highest-rated shooting guard in our Phan Model at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 86%. Toney Douglas and Dante Cunningham should also be considered cash options as they’ve averaged 33 and 22 DraftKings points in consecutive games — Cunningham’s limited upside seems worrisome, but his 33.6 minutes over his last two performances is more than enough to see him exceed his lowly implied total of 16.19 points. Luke Babbitt — exceeded expectations by +12.98 points in back-to-back performances — would remain a cash option only if Norris Cole (questionable) were ruled out, as he’s averaged as many field goal attempts (14) as Douglas in that span.
George Hill has seen a price increase of $700 over his last two games, but his salary still includes a Bargain Rating of 86% at DraftKings. With a whopping Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8 in this slate, Hill’s Dud Percentage of 15% over the last month is more than viable in cash games, especially given his implied total of 21.71 points.
Even with limited availability in their front court, Omer Asik remains a concerning roster seeing as Alvin Gentry remains infatuated with Kendrick Perkins. Asik, after all, played the first 7:40 of their second half against Miami, only to see Perkins play the next 14:47 at center — this scattering of their rotation resulted in Asik logging 2.3 fewer minutes than the latter. Rather, a pivot towards Ian Mahinmi is suggested as, along with an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.32, Mahinmi has averaged 33.1 minutes in his last two games.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 107 – 100, O/U: 207
Although a Bargain Rating of 95% for both at DraftKings, Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young have horrific Opponent Plus/Minus’ of -3.45 and -3.55 in this slate. Implied to score the absolute minimum, Shane Larkin might arguably be a better cash play than either as he’s expected to start over Donald Sloan at point guard.
With head coach Tyronn Lue stating “it’s a possibility” that some players may sit on the second leg of their back-to-back, let’s quickly roll through the implications of their absence(s):
If LeBron James sits, note Kyrie Irving’s otherworldly usage rate of 37.8% in said instances remains a team high. He also includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12 in this slate. Kevin Love, though a terrific option no matter, should be targeted more so at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 86% — he’s averaged the second-most field goal attempts without LeBron this season. Given his implied total of 16.19, Channing Frye (if starting) would also become cash viable.
If Kevin Love sits, note James has averaged 54 DraftKings points in four said instances. I would actually rank him well ahead of Durant in this scenario given his recent play: James has crushed expectations by +17.38 points over his last two games. Tristan Thompson would only become cash viable if starting in place of Love — he remains a value at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 75%.
If Kyrie Irving sits, note Matthew Dellavedova has averaged 22.9 DraftKings points in 28.6 minutes without the former. Dellavedova’s combined floor and limited upside, however, make him more of a cash play at DraftKings (where value remains key). J.R. Smith would also become tournament viable at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 86% — Smith has averaged 30.9 minutes and the third-most shot attempts for Cleveland without Irving this season.
If any combination sit, weep.
Chicago Bulls (-5) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 104 – 99, O/U: 203
Having just played each other last night, recycling Robin Lopez shouldn’t be considered point chasing as he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.65 in this slate. Assuming Carmelo Anthony suits up (and there are currently no reports suggesting otherwise), his 93% Bargain Rating (and highest Projected Plus/Minus among small forwards) at DraftKings could easily be argued as the most valuable salary in tonight’s player pool.
Even though a Bargain Rating of 99% at DraftKings, Pau Gasol (questionable) shouldn’t be considered beyond tournaments as long as he remains on a 24-26 minutes limit. Despite his implied total of 18.95 points, Nikola Mirotic would take a backseat to Taj Gibson if Gasol were ruled out — Gibson has averaged 26.1 DraftKings points in seven starts for Gasol this season. Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose need only be rostered at DraftKings where their absurdly valuable Bargain Ratings of 98%/97% imply they score only 31.83/25.39 points.
Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)
Implied Total: 94.3 – 103.8, O/U: 198.5
Although his salary at FanDuel has risen $2,300 in a matter of days, Shelvin Mack’s recent play speaks for itself:
Gordon Hayward also finds himself in a terrific spot at FanDuel as his Bargain Rating of 75% includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.71. He’s implied to score 26.21 points at FanDuel, whereas his implied total at DraftKings remains a much higher 29.53.
Since choosing between Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant is always a conundrum, it appears to be a night in which the former has an edge. Durant, for instance, has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.28, while Westbrook’s salary at DraftKings has inexplicably suffered a decrease of $300 overnight. In the midst of his triple-double streak, note Westbrook has exceeded expectations by +12.92 points over his last three games. Though this game features the lowest-implied total of the night, the Thunder are still implied to score 103.8 (fourth-highest of any team) points.
Portland Trailblazers at Los Angeles Clippers (-5)
Implied Total: 104 – 109, O/U: 213
Damian Lillard’s Dud Percentage of 26% over the last month is concerning for cash, but his Bargain Rating of 81% (involved in the highest-implied total of the night) at FanDuel remains perfectly suitable in tournaments. His projected floor trails only Westbrook and Chris Paul in this slate. As for cheaper tournament options in Portland, note Al-Farouq Aminu (implied total of only 15.73 points) has exceeded expectations in six straight, while Mason Plumlee (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.32 in this slate) is now averaging differentials of +7.2 DraftKings points in +5.5 more minutes without Meyers Leonard this season. I assume Maurice Harkless started at the four against Dallas if only to exploit Dirk Nowitzki’s defense, but if given the starting nod for a second night, note his implied total of minimum at DraftKings (making him an above-average tournament option).
With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.19 in this slate, I’m less concerned about Paul’s 4-of-16 shooting from the floor last night and instead, focused on his incredulous plummet in salary — following one poor performance, after all, Paul’s price point at DraftKings has suddenly dipped $200. With a Dud Percentage of 7% over the last month, Paul is perfectly acceptable in both cash and tournaments alike. Same goes for DeAndre Jordan, who’s quietly averaged 40.9 DraftKings points over his last 10 games.
Good luck!
