Let’s get to it.
Charlotte Hornets (-5.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 108 -102.5, O/U: 210.5
With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson expected to return, Bojan Bogdanovic has notably recorded 4.5 fewer minutes on a decreased usage rate of 17.5% alongside the former. That might not mean much seeing as Joe Johnson was around during that span, but it’s worth pondering whether or not his usage of 31.5% over his last five games will suddenly plummet upon Hollis-Jefferson’s return. Either way, his Bargain Rating of 90% at FanDuel doesn’t leave all too much of a floor to be concerned with. Thaddeus Young remains the strongest cash play on their roster as his incredulously underpriced Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings includes the highest-projected floor among power forwards.
With Marvin Williams questionable for tonight, note Frank Kaminsky has logged the most minutes at center in instances with the former off the court. Although Cody Zeller (97% Bargain Rating at DraftKings) would be the cash option amongst their front court, Kaminsky — implied to score only 12.97 points — could certainly provide sneaky tournament value. Nicolas Batum, although an average of 43 DraftKings points over his last seven games, should be avoided at FanDuel as his Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings remains much more valuable.
Miami Heat (-8.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Total: 109.3 – 100.8, O/U: 209
With Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis both absent Sunday (and again tonight), note Jrue Holiday recorded a usage rate of 27.0% amongst their starters. Although his salary now imply he score at least 36.43 points at DraftKings, Holiday includes a 95% Bargain Rating at FanDuel (where he was just moved to shooting guard). His Projected Plus/Minus is also the highest of anyone involved in tonight’s player pool (at FanDuel). But, while he and Toney Douglas are both cash viable given their first and second-most field goal attempts (as well as 39.3/36.9 minutes) for the Pelicans, Tim Frazier’s eligibility remains concerning. Despite a team-high usage rate of 34.5%, for instance, Frazier logged only 20.1 minutes. Fortunately, his implied total of 13.55 at FanDuel isn’t a floor worth avoiding entirely.
Although the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among centers in tonight’s slate, Hassan Whiteside is still implied to score 35.51 points. His projected ceiling (also highest among centers) and Dud Percentage of 7% this month make him viable no matter the format, but Omer Asik is still expected to log a greater total of minutes (with only Alexis Ajinca and Kendrick Perkins standing in his way). Implied to score 14.81 points, Asik’s 29.8 minutes in his last outing is definitely worth some exposure. Same goes for Dante Cunningham, who logged a team-high 39.8 minutes at the four in place of Davis/Anderson.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)
Implied Total: 106.5 – 115.5, O/U: 223.5
Albeit listed as a game-time decision, Harden reportedly went through shootaround (on a limited basis) Tuesday morning. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff additionally stated that he was optimistic on Harden’s chances of suiting up. Even so, his limited ability to even so much as cut without pain seems worrisome for cash games. Given his average of 35-6-5 against Oklahoma City this season, I’d be more than willing to continue riding him in tournaments. Either way, Michael Beasley (team-high usage rate of 31.7% over his last six games) and Patrick Beverley (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94) remain cash options no matter Harden’s status at tip-off.
Averaging a line of 25.5-9.0-12.5 in two games versus the Rockets this season, Russell Westbrook remains easily the top cash option in this slate. He additionally includes the highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+4.4) among point guards. Seeing as he and Kevin Durant (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.97) are both far and away the highest-priced options at their respective positions, however, lineup construction essentially boils down to where you’re looking to save. It’s easy to lean Westbrook given his exponential upside, but Durant (Dud Percentage -7% lower than Westbrook over the last month) includes the highest-projected floor of anyone in tonight’s slate. No matter: Serge Ibaka remains a strong tournament play at FanDuel where his Bargain Rating of 97% additionally includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.02.
Although Enes Kanter has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.77 in this slate (and highest Projected Plus/Minus at his position), the tournament pivot remains Steven Adams: implied to score -5.06 fewer points than Kanter, Adams has quietly averaged only -4.01 DraftKings points less than the former over his last five games.
Memphis Grizzlies (-3) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 102.5 – 99.5, O/U: 202
Prior to Zach Randolph’s recent return, Lance Stephenson had averaged a usage rate of 26.6% on the third-most minutes for the Grizzlies. In the last month alone, his increase in salary — from $3,400 all the way to $6,500 — could even be justified as he had exceeded expectations by +5.54 points in that span. Then Randolph came back, and Stephenson has since averaged 19.6 DraftKings points in 24.9 minutes — he’s implied to score 28.61. It’s a small sample, sure, but Randolph’s usage rate of 27.2% over that time (essentially taking away from Stephenson) rather than the actual results is why this scenario remains worrisome (for Lance, anyways). Still $7k at FanDuel, I would avoid Stephenson, dare I say, vehemently, until this situation further shakes itself out. Meanwhile, continue recycling Randolph as he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76 in this slate (or +3.67 if targeting his lower price-point at FanDuel).
Although Kobe Bryant is expected to play, Byron Scott was quite emphatic about his plan to play D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, and Julius Randle in the fourth quarter “no matter what” for the remainder of the season. “That’s my goal,” Scott said, “is allow them to be out there and play through the mistakes and play through when they’re playing badly. They have to figure out how to come together as a group.” With that being said, Russell remains the most intriguing of the trio as his Opponent Plus/Minus qualifies as the only positive of the group. Randle should be targeted more on FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Good luck!
