Let’s get to it.
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets (-9.5)
Implied Total: 103.3 – 112.8, O/U: 216
Without Kenneth Faried (doubtful for tonight) available in Denver’s last game, Darrell Arthur started and logged only 17.6 minutes. Joffrey Lauvergne inexplicable spelled him en route to logging 30.4. Seeing as their frontcourt surrounding Faried (Jusuf Nurkic, Nikola Jokic, Axel Toupane, Lauvergne, Arthur) are all expected to play, none should be considered beyond tournaments. Same goes for Emmanuel Mudiay who, despite having an easily accessible Bargain Rating of 75% at FanDuel, has averaged only 25.2 minutes in back-to-back performances.
Being a pivotal part of the highest-implied team total of the evening, Kemba Walker has all the makings of a top-two option at his position. Not only does Walker include an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.53 in this slate, but his Projected Plus/Minus of +8.9 remains the highest of anyone involved in tonight’s player pool. His projected floor of 32.2 points trails only Russell Westbrook (37) and Steph Curry (36) among point guards. Feel free to stack him with Nicolas Batum, who’s averaged 43.5 DraftKings points in 37.4 minutes over his last five games. Al Jefferson remains an under-the-radar option only if Cody Zeller were ruled out — the former produced 1.41 DraftKings points per minute when filling-in for Zeller in their most recent matchup versus Miami.
Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons (-8.5)
Implied Total: 109.3 – 100.8, O/U: 210.5
Much has been made of Bojan Bogdanovic’s recent surge — 41.7 DraftKings points in 32.9 minutes over his last four games — but his uptick in production (and, in turn, on-court time) means his horrendous defense also remains in play; Brooklyn has allowed the most DraftKings points to small forwards over their last five games. In other words, fire away at Marcus Morris (especially on FanDuel where he’s implied to score only 19.66 points).
Both Andre Drummond and Brook Lopez are worthy plays in this slate, but each should be designated appropriately. Lopez, although certainly cash viable, remains a stronger tournament play given his projected ceiling of 59.7 points (+5.1 points greater than Drummond’s). Drummond, on the other hand, has a projected floor +4.9 points higher than that of Lopez (making him the better option in cash). Either way, note both Lopez and Drummond have been gifted an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10/+2.34.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) at Indiana Pacers
Implied Total: 107 – 103, O/U: 210
Though the impending return of Ian Mahinmi (currently on track to play) boosts Indiana’s interior defense, Enes Kanter remains a strong option at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 75%. Additionally, he’s exceeded expectations by +11.67 points over his last seven games. Though Kanter should easily be considered a cash play, a pivot towards Steven Adams is arguably the better move in tournaments (as long as you’re willing to accept his floor, of course): his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.59 remains +0.15 higher than that of Kanter’s in this slate. With the Thunder being favorites of only four points, I would also look to build around Russell Westbrook (even more so than usual): along with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92, Westbrook’s Projected Plus/Minus of +7.7 remains second only to Kemba Walker among point guards. Note Westbrook (in a much better matchup) actually has an equivalent Dud Percentage to Steph Curry over their last 14 games.
Both Monta Ellis and Paul George are in precarious situations in which their projected floors are either at or just outside the top five among their respective positions. Even so, their price points (at DraftKings, anyways) remain well below value: both include Bargain Ratings of 90%. In a plus matchup at home, stacking the duo seems like the inviting approach (more so for tournaments than cash).
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards (-8)
Implied Total: 99.3 – 107.3, O/U: 206.5
Although Sasha Vujacic continues to start off-ball for the Knicks, Langston Galloway has averaged 26.7 minutes over his last four games. His actual upside is concerning, but note Galloway’s minuscule implied total of 13.55 points at FanDuel (Bargain Rating of 86% included). With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92 in this slate, he’s considered a viable tournament option (especially in the Early Only slate). Carmelo Anthony remains the strongest cash play amongst New York as his Projected Plus/Minus of +6.9 (-0.1 points fewer than Kevin Durant) includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68 (and the most Pro Trends among small forwards) in this slate.
Having exceeded expectations by +12.74 points in his last four games, Otto Porter remains incredulously underpriced at FanDuel (where he has a Bargain Rating of 81%). Given his lowly implied total of 17.92 points, Porter should be considered an elite cash option among small forwards if only because of his recent workload: he’s averaged 33.7 minutes over his last four games.
Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks (-7)
Implied Total: 104.3 – 111.3, O/U: 215.5
“We need to make sure we get Dwight more than four shots a game,” head coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters prior to their game against Minnesota. Howard, after all, had attempted only four field goals in each of his last two performances.
Fast-forward to last night where he attempted seven.
That alone renders Howard’s juicy Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.27 seemingly useless; rather, a pivot to Al Horford appears to be the stronger play as his absurdly cheap Bargain Rating of 90% at DraftKings also includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.48 in this slate.
Having averaged 50.8 DraftKings points over the last month (and 57.2 in his last two), it’s more a question of fitting James Harden rather than wondering if you should. Even with a salary of $10,400, Harden’s Projected Plus/Minus of +4.6 remains only -0.6 points lower than Klay Thompson (who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards). If you can afford him, you should. And Michael Beasley — 27.1 DraftKings points on a usage rate of 29.8% since debuting for Houston — among others could provide that value.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) at Miami Heat
Implied Total: 105 – 102, O/U: 207
In five games since leaving Miami, LeBron James has averaged a line of 25.2-5.6-6.0 against the Heat. Given the horrific matchup for all, James appears to be the only confident lean for tournaments as he remains ridiculously underpriced at DraftKings ($9,300). Even Hassan Whiteside, although always tantalizing upside, should be avoided entirely in cash as our models show him with the lowest Opponent Plus/Minus (-4.02) in this slate.
As I said: horrific matchup for all.
Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls (-2)
Implied Total: 96.3 – 98.3, O/U: 194.5
Although injuries galore, note this implied score of 194.5 remains five points lower than any other total in tonight’s slate (warranting limited exposure). Fortunately, all will clear once Gordon Hayward’s final status is announced. If absent, note Shelvin Mack has averaged 41.1 DraftKings points in his last two performances. Although his salary has increased +$600 since his last outing, Mack has still exceeded expectations in eight straight. Implied to score only 15.73 points, Joe Ingles, though limited upside, would also remain an elite cash option: he’s averaged a line of 10.5-4.5-3.0 and three steals in two starts for Hayward.
Taj Gibson is expected to play (and start in Pau Gasol’s absence), but his lingering hamstring injury has limited him to 7.3 and 27.1 minutes in his last two games. I’d be much more inclined to roster Bobby Portis, who’s averaged 28.3 DraftKings points in his last two. Portis is considered even more valuable at FanDuel where he’s implied to score -2.78 points fewer. As for surrounding Chicago options, Doug McDermott — 32.1 DraftKings points in 31.8 minutes in his last three games — remains the more viable tournament option among their forwards: although 25.3 minutes over his last three games, Nikola Mirotic has averaged only 8.0 attempts from the field (failing to meet expectations by -7.58 in that span). It should be noted that McDermott includes a horrid Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.56 in this slate.
Los Angeles Clippers (-10) at Memphis Grizzlies
Implied Total: 104.8 – 94.8, O/U: 199.5
In his last three performances, Lance Stephenson has averaged 42 DraftKings points on a team-high 34.8 minutes. Even so, note his incredulous +$1,600 increase in salary at FanDuel. Now implied to score at least 28.39 points, there’s no question as to where he’s best rostered — his implied total at DraftKings (along with a Bargain Rating of 98%) remains -1.62 lower. Matt Barnes remains a strong cash option no matter as he’s averaged 37.8 DraftKings points in 36.1 minutes in back-to-back games.
Given that Memphis has been hemorrhaged for 108.7 points during their four-game losing streak, exposure towards the Clippers is 1) warranted, and 2) best directed at Chris Paul: along with a Bargain Rating of 86%, Paul includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12 in this slate. His Dud Percentage of 0% over the last month makes him the essential pivot if concerned about Westbrook (blowout?) or Curry (matchup) in this slate.
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (-5)
Implied Total: 106.5 – 111, O/U: 217.5
Though the numbers are a bit skewed due to the final result, Curry produced 56.5 DraftKings points in just 28.4 minutes in the Warriors last bout with San Antonio. I’m much more inclined to lean Westbrook (for the matchup) if paying upwards of $10k at the point, but Curry remains a magnificent tournament option as Golden State (five-point road dogs) will likely need their big three for the entirety of play. Still, that benefits only their point guard as both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have been marked with a horrid Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.40/-3.98 in this slate.
Though a measly Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.83, all hands should remain on deck for LaMarcus Aldridge in both cash and tournaments alike. Not only does he include a Bargain Rating of 86% at DraftKings, but his Projected Plus/Minus of +6.4 trails only Green among power forwards. Same outlook goes for Kawhi Leonard, who produced 1.12 DraftKings points per minute despite the result in their last matchup with Golden State.
Good luck!
