Let’s get to it.
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers (-2)
Implied Total: 100.5 – 102.5, O/U: 203
In eight games without Ian Mahinmi (doubtful), Jordan Hill has averaged 25.8 DraftKings points in 27.7 minutes. Implied to score only 16.65 points, Hill remains a terrific option no matter the format if only due to his salary ($3,900). Lavoy Allen has averaged 26 minutes in said instances, but note his Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.72 in this slate. Still, in the off-chance Hill inexplicably runs into foul trouble, Allen, who need only score 12.97 points in order to return value, is more than viable in tournaments.
Kyle Lowry will likely (and should) be looked upon as a cog for lineup construction at DraftKings. Even if we choose to look beyond his recent performance (otherworldly Plus/Minus of +4.40 in the last month), Lowry’s recent dip in salary — $8,600 to $8,200, for whatever reason — now includes a Bargain Rating of 93% — his Rating in our Phan Model at FanDuel remains much higher due to his +$700 difference. Lowry has also been tagged with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 in this slate. Though avoidable at FanDuel, there’s just no way around him in DraftKings cash.
Washington Wizards (-9.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 113.8 – 104.3, O/U: 218
He’ll include high ownership due to his performance of 69 DraftKings points last night, but it’s undeniably another immaculate spot for John Wall. Not only does he remain underpriced at FanDuel (where he includes a Bargain Rating of 93%), but he includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 in this slate. Additionally, Wall can easily be argued as the strongest cash option among point guards, as he’s quietly averaged +3.8 more points than any other point guard in tonight’s player pool over the last month.
With Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, and Richaun Holmes out for the foreseeable future, it’s another night in which the entire lot of Carl Landry, Nerlens Noel, Ish Smith, and Isaiah Canaan are all cash eligible. Despite his Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.89, for instance, Landry has exceeded expectations by +14.63 points over his last three games. Canaan, who includes an absurdly cheap Bargain Rating of 97% at FanDuel, has averaged 24.3 DraftKings points in his two starts for Covington, while Noel has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among power forwards. You know what to do.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-4.5)
Implied Total: 102.5 – 107, O/U: 208.5
With Miami implied to score 107 points, I can only assume a majority of that comes from Goran Dragic and Dwayne Wade. Though both are similarly priced across both sites, I lean Wade in tournaments due to his projected floor of 18.7 (fourth-highest among off-ball guards). Being the more consistent of the two, Dragic, who’s accumulated a Dud Percentage of 0% over the last month, remains a top-notch cash option.
Though his matchup is certainly concerning (Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.47 in this slate), I wouldn’t shy away from Kemba Walker just yet. Being involved in the fourth-highest total of the evening, Walker has the benefit of withholding the second-highest projected floor among point guards. While both he and Nicolas Batum — projected floor only -0.1 points fewer than DeMar DeRozan among shooting guards — are fine in cash, Marvin Williams warrants a hard look in tournaments: he’s averaged 34.3 DraftKings points on a line of 20.2-6.3-1.2 over his last six games. I can only assume the latter will be the lowest owned of the trio.
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks (-7.5)
Implied Total: 101.8 – 109.3, O/U: 211
Emmanuel Mudiay deserves tournament consideration at FanDuel if only because of his 86% Bargain Rating. Cash, however, is a different story. His two most recent vomit-inducing performances of 11.0 and 19.4 FanDuel points both came on the second leg of a back-to-back, sure, but it remains worrisome that Mike Malone (although a savior for that franchise, mind you) has felt the need to play D.J. Augustin for an additional +2.2 minutes over Mudiay (+2.4 more than Will Barton) in their last three contests. Like I said: tournament exposure at FanDuel where his inevitable floor won’t hit you as hard due to cost. The same goes for Kenneth Faried, whose minutes over his last four contests — 14.6, 20.8, 25.6, 14.8 — look more like ratings for True Detective than actual time logged.
Though an average of 38.1 DraftKings points over his last three games, Al Horford’s salary has decreased -$500 in that span. Now including a Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings, his projected floor of 17 points (tied for second-highest among centers) is more than viable for both cash and tournaments alike. Jeff Teague should also warrant tournament consideration as he’s exceeded expectations in six of his last seven performances. He additionally includes an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43 in this slate.
Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls (-6)
Implied Total: 103 – 109, O/U: 212
With Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson both expected to be out, Bobby Portis remains a perfectly suitable option in cash games. Implied to score only 16.65 points, Portis is considered even more valuable at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 81%. In likely starting at the four, Nikola Mirotic is also an acceptable cash play, as his projected floor is the third-highest among power forwards (sixth-highest at FanDuel where he qualifies as a small forward). Derrick Rose remains an above-average play at DraftKings where his measly salary of $6K should prosper with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.38.
Without Gibson, however, Brooklyn also clearly stands to benefit in the paint. That begins with Thaddeus Young, who’s exceeded expectations by +13.92 points in his last three games. Although his salary has risen +$500 since his last performance, it’s a terrific spot for Young as his seven Pro Trends remained tied atop power forwards. He’s also produced a lowly Dud Percentage of only 8% in the last month. Brook Lopez should also be held to that standard as his Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.89 (not a mistype) remains +3.43 higher than any other center in this slate.
As for Bojan Bogdanovic’s 57.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, there’s no need to go chasing: even with his astounding performance factored in, note Bogdanovic is still averaging fewer than 1 DraftKings points per minute this month.
Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks (-10.5)
Implied Total: 95.8 – 106.3, O/U: 202
Over his last three games, Lance Stephenson has averaged 43.6 DraftKings points in 32.9 minutes. Despite coming off their bench, he’s recorded the third-highest usage rate for Memphis in that span — 23.3%, behind only JaMychal Green (27.0%) and Matt Barnes (25.3%). Though Barnes remains a value at FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86%, Stephenson continues to be a fine play for the short-handed Grizzlies across sites.
Though a terrible spot given his Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.15 in this slate, Khris Middleton remains a steal at DraftKings (where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%). In fact, his most recent performance of 23.25 DraftKings points was actually the first time he’s failed to achieve at least 33 DraftKings points in over a month. Both he and Giannis Antetokounmpo are considered elite cash options, as both have exceeded exceeded expectations in 80% of their last 10 games.
Portland Trailblazers at San Antonio Spurs (-11.5)
Implied Total: 96.3 – 107.8, O/U: 204
Although a ‘revenge’ narrative will likely lead to higher ownership, LaMarcus Aldridge remains one of the stronger power forward plays of the night. Exceeding expectations by +10.07 points in his last 10 games, Aldridge also includes a ridiculous 93% Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Kawhi Leonard has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.92 in this slate, but remains a top option given his highest Projected Plus/Minus among small forwards. If choosing between one, however, I’m still inclined to leaned the former (in this slate, anyways).
Although a Bargain Rating of 75%, Damian Lillard has quietly accumulated a horrid Dud Percentage of 28% over his last 14 games. Unless stacking the Blazers for a contrarian approach (something that’s not suggested), there’s really no reason to roster any of them in this matchup — Portland is implied to score the third-fewest points in tonight’s slate.
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz (-9)
implied Total: 94.5 – 103.5, O/U: 198
Considering plantar fasciitis tends to be a lingering issue, I’m going to approach this game as if Gordon Hayward has already been ruled out. And if that is the case, note Shelvin Mack finished with 44.3 DraftKings points in a team-high 37.2 minutes. Mack now includes an implied total of 20.97 points, but his Projected Plus/Minus of +7.1 remains tied for second-highest among power forwards. He also has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.13 in this slate. I would be more than happy pairing him alongside teammate Rodney Hood — team-high 16 field goal attempts without Hayward in his last outing — at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 86% (and even more advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.17).
Since returning to their starting-unit, Brandon Knight has averaged 39 minutes for Phoenix. In fact, only six players have averaged 28-plus minutes in their last two games while the other five men in their rotation have averaged 10 or fewer. While Devin Booker has been a beacon of consistency as of late, note his terrifying Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.88 in this slate. Despite his recent foul woes, I’d rather go back to Alex Len — highest usage rate among their starters since Knight returned to the starting lineup — at DraftKings (90% Bargain Rating) than Booker anywhere.
Good luck!
