Let’s get to it.
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers (-2.5)
Implied Total: 103.5 – 106.0, O/U: 209.5
The Celtics should be very rested, as they haven’t played since Friday. The question for Boston starting tonight will be how they replace Jae Crowder, who will be out for a couple weeks with a high ankle sprain. Rather than one player taking over the role, however, in Celtics fashion, it will likely be a number of players filling in. We should expect slight bumps for Evan Turner (the most direct fill-in), Jonas Jerebko (could play that 3-4 stretch role), as well as Sullinger, Smart, and Thomas. The three latter players may not see a minute increase but potentially a usage one. All-in-all, Thomas and Turner are strong cash plays, and Jerebko, Sullinger, and Smart are all strong tourney plays.
The Pacers haven’t had the rest the Celtics have, but they should come into this game looking to get rid of the stench of Sunday’s blowout loss to the Hawks. Everyone for Indiana disappointed, but this could be a nice spot to get players in lower ownership, as recency bias possibly creeps into lineups. Paul George embodies that idea, as his salary (and subsequent Projected Plus/Minus) is very reasonable on DK at $8,600 and gets a nice matchup with Crowder out. George Hill is questionable tonight — if he plays, both he and Ellis are tournament options; if he’s out, Ellis moves into cash territory (if he’s not already there). The only other Pacer you might look at is Mahinmi, and only limited in tourneys.
Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic (-3)
Implied Total: 106 – 109, O/U: 215
A lot of people have a variety of opinions on Emmanuel Mudiay and his, uh, up-and-down rookie season, but there’s no doubt he’s been on fire lately. Denver is coming off a back-to-back, but last night Mudiay posted 41.75 DK points against the toughest PG matchup in the league Plus/Minus-wise in the Heat. His matchup tonight is one of the best in the league — he has a very high Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94, and that probably even undersells it with Brandon Jennings likely starting at PG for the Magic. Other than Mudiay, the Nuggets are a cluster of tourney plays — Jokic, Faried, Barton, and Gary Harris are all a little too volatile for cash, but all have very high ceilings and especially in this matchup.
Ah, it’s been so long since Brandon Jennings time in DFS! With Elfrid Payton out, C.J. Watson questionable, and Jennings return to practice yesterday, it looks promising that we’ll get Jennings-as-starting-PG for the first time in way too long. If that happens, Jennings and his super-low $3,700 pricetag will be a must in all contest formats. Nikola Vucevic is also out tonight, but unfortunately the frontcourt doesn’t look to be as clear-cut as the backcourt (Jennings and Oladipo). Dewayne Dedmon will likely get the start again, but he only got 15 minutes last game despite that honor. If you want to gamble on those guys (Dedmon, Jason Smith, Ilyasova?), go for it in tournaments.
Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets (-7.5)
Implied Total: 101.5 – 109.0, O/U: 210.5
The 76ers are actually kind of pleasant DFS-wise right now. We know who will get minutes fairly accurately, which is most of the battle in NBA DFS. Starting with the frontcourt, Nerlens Noel and Carl Landry will get the majority of the minutes , and thus are cash-game plays. Ish Smith will get his usual 30-ish minutes — he’s an average play in either contest format tonight. I like this spot for Hollis Thompson — he will see heavy minutes yet again, and people will likely be a little down on him because of last game’s poor performance. A little Isaiah Canaan in tourneys too? Eh, why not?
Brook Lopez has struggled a bit lately, but his monstrously high Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.85 tonight — and the ongoing saga of DraftKings underpricing centers this year — puts him as a great play all around tonight. Thad Young is a really nice tourney play, especially if he avoids the Nerlens matchup on defense, assuming Philly plays him at center (I know I just highlighted the Brook matchup, but I think both are good — Nerlens probably bothers Thad more than Brook). Other than that, I’m not too excited about any other Net — Bogdanovic is okay in tourneys along with Sloan, but I’m putting most of my Brooklyn exposure in the frontcourt.
Toronto Raptors (-2) at Milwaukee Bucks
Implied Total: 104.3 – 102.3, O/U: 206.5
The Raptors are coming off a disappointing game last night, as they lost to the Bulls for the fourth time this season. They’ll look to get back on track — although, the studs for the Raps have been great throughout the wins and losses. Lowry put up over 60 on DK last night and although the matchup is average, his salary is reasonable and ceiling is high — either contest format is fine. DeRozan is a tournament-only play for me tonight, mostly because of the matchup against the lengthy Giannis and Middleton. Valanciunas is questionable tonight, so monitor his status up to lock; if he’s out, Biyombo is a nice punt play at C. I like Patterson in cash regardless of Valanciunas’ status.
All hail, King Giannis. The dude is on fire lately — his price is way up ($9.2k on DK and $9.9k on FD), but he still has a positive Projected Plus/Minus of +3.4. I know the price is scary, but he’s been so good and his ceiling is so high — I will continue to play him until he comes back to Earth. Khris Middleton has a tough matchup — his Opponent Plus/Minus is -0.68 — but he’s been matchup proof lately. Moreso, his play has gone a bit unnoticed because of Giannis’ destruction. Jabari is kind-of in the no-play zone tonight — lower floor and lower ceiling lately than is rosterable in either format. Greg Monroe has a nice matchup, although note that his great +2.79 Opponent Plus/Minus is misleading if Biyombo gets the start.
LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs (-9)
Implied Total: 95.5 – 104.5, O/U: 200
The Clippers’ Opponent Plus/Minus’ against the Spurs tonight are all miserable, which leads to rule this year: in cash, don’t play guys against the Spurs. I’m following that rule tonight (and even moreso after seeing them shut down Kevin Durant the other night) and only going limited tourney exposure to the studs that can potentially override the matchup: CP3 and DeAndre Jordan.
The Spurs are in a much better spot, as shown by the Vegas numbers above. Kawhi has been in MVP-form lately and is a great play in both formats tonight on either site. Aldridge has been one of the steadiest players in DFS recently and although his Opponent Plus/Minus tonight isn’t great (only +0.36), he’s an elite cash option because of his floor and consistency. That’s probably about it for the Spurs as well — this game is much more exciting in real life than it is fantasy-wise.
Sacramento Kings (-4.5) at LA Lakers
Implied Total: 111.8 – 107.3, O/U: 219
Now this is the game to target. Boogie is the easiest, chalkiest play of the night. He sits a top the Phan Model and rightfully so — he has a huge ceiling (76.3), huge floor (40.9), huge Opponent Plus/Minus (+4.15), huge Projected Plus/Minus (+11.6), is in a game with a huge total … you get the picture. Play him in lots of lineups. Rondo is an elite tournament play tonight and is maybe even borderline cash if his volatility doesn’t scare you. Gay is very interesting as a tournament play — he’s been bad lately and will likely be much lower owned than he possibly should. Collison is an average play and Casspi is a nice punt option at his low $4k-ish DK salary.
Kobe Bryant is doubtful tonight and Metta World Peace is likely getting the start. Despite that, I wouldn’t put much into MWP and would instead focus on the guards — Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell. They both have huge Opponent Plus/Minus’ — +4.94 and +4.55, respectively — and could thrive in an up-and-down affair like this game projects to be, especially without Kobe. They’re playable on both sites, but better bargains on FanDuel, for what it’s worth. Regarding Julius Randle, I wouldn’t be scared because of last game’s low minutes — Brandon Bass is likely out tonight and he has an awesome Opp Plus/Minus of +4.01. Roll him out in tournaments with confidence.
Good luck tonight!
