Let’s get to it.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Clippers
Implied Total: 104.5 – 103, O/U: 207.5
DeAndre Jordan, despite his usual consistency, opposes the lowest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to any center in this slate. Given their near mirror-image salaries, Brook Lopez remains the better pivot as, in costing only $100 more, his projected floor remains +3.9 points greater. Chris Paul is obviously still worth paying up for as he’s produced a Dud Percentage of 0% over his last 11 games. He’s also exceeded expectations in 13 consecutive games.
With Kevin Love having said he would play, fear of another surprise scratch is all the more reason to have exposure towards him in tournaments. Note his Bargain Rating of 90% at FanDuel where he’s implied to score 27.08 points. Kyrie Irving is also perfectly acceptable in cash (especially in the Early Only slate) as he includes an even more advantageous Bargain Rating of 95%. If the choice is Paul or LeBron James, however, I lean the latter if only for the bevy of selections at small forward today: James’ floor is +2.2 points greater than that of Carmelo Anthony, +2.5 better than Paul George.
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (-4.5)
Implied Total: 96.5 – 101, O/U: 197.5
Over the last 16 games, Paul George has averaged only -0.1 points fewer than Carmelo Anthony (who remains +$200 more). Given George’s lowly $8,100 price point at DraftKings, I consider it more taking advantage of the salary at-hand rather than points-chasing his performance from yesterday (48 DraftKings points). Despite this total being the lowest of the evening, I wouldn’t even mind tag-teaming George with Monta Ellis, as the latter has exceeded expectations by +13.29 points over his last three games. It’s only considered a plus if George Hill (questionable) were ruled out, as Ellis’ usage rate has climbed from 21.2% to 25.4% in said instances (as he’s been forced to play more point guard).
Along with the second-highest projected floor at his position, Al Horford finds himself in a terrific matchup with a Pacers defense — he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.88 today. Kent Bazemore remains underpriced at FanDuel (as shown by his Bargain Rating of 86%), but Horford remains the stronger play for Atlanta in tournaments (relative to his price).
Utah Jazz (-1.5) at Sacramento Kings
Implied Total: 103.3 – 101.8, O/U: 204.5
No team has allowed more DraftKings points to power forwards over their last 10 games than the Sacramento Kings. That alone makes Derrick Favors a viable roster at any site. Gordon Hayward has failed to meet expectations in consecutive games, but his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.91 today seems all too good to pass up (especially at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 75%).
With DeMarcus Cousins set to return, you don’t have to fret the obligatory Rudy Gay-play no longer: his team-high usage rate of 28.7% without Cousins plummets to 21.3% when the two start alongside one another. Instead, Rajon Rondo and Cousins make for exquisite tournament plays at DraftKings where both have absurd Bargain Ratings of at least 86% — Cousins remains $11K at FanDuel.
Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 103.8 – 102.3, O/U: 206
Seeing as this matchup initially opened as a straight Pick’Em (eventually being pushed in favor of Milwaukee), exposure towards both sides is warranted. For cash games, that means more of the same with the usual suspects: Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo (specifically at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%), Thaddeus Young, Brook Lopez, and Jabari Parker (also at DraftKings as his salary at FanDuel has risen +$800 in the last five nights).
As for tournaments, either Shane Larkin or Donald Sloan is the play; ‘or’ due in part because I have yet to unlock the key as to telling which one (which is why they’re tournament specific). Larkin, for instance – though back-to-back games in which he failed to log greater than 20 minutes – notched 34.8 and 33.7 minutes in his two outings prior. Sloan, on the other hand, has played 27.9 and 33.5 since. Whereas Jerryd Bayless is always a tournament play due to his guaranteed workload (39.1 minutes without O.J. Mayo and Michael Carter-Williams), the Brooklyn back court remains a mysteriously-solid play.
New York Knicks (-2) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 104.5 – 102.5, O/U: 207
Along with an absurd Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel, Kristaps Porzingis boasts an awesome Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55 today. Both he and ‘Melo are more than viable in cash games where each hold value: Anthony, along with a Bargain Rating of 90%, remains the highest-rated small forward in our Phan Model at DraftKings, while Porzingis is rated the same among power forwards at FanDuel.
Robin Lopez has been gifted the highest Opponent Plus/Minus of any center in today’s slate. He’s never “supposed” to be an option in cash, but given his minutes (and matchup, obviously), I’d be perfectly fine in swinging for the fences with Lopez at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Jordan Clarkson has failed to log 34-plus minutes in only three instances since the All-Star Break (and none fewer that 22). Even with Lou Williams and Kobe Bryant expected to play today, note Clarkson has logged the most minutes for LA both with and without Bryant active this season. He and D’Angelo Russell, who has the second-highest projected floor in the four-game Main slate, remain pivotal cash selections.
Good luck today!
