Although only a five-game slate, there’s one in particular that would stand out even if every team were playing. Before you get any ideas, however, just know I already tried it:
Let’s get to it.
San Antonio Spurs (-7) at Miami Heat
Implied Total: 100 – 93, O/U: 193
What if I told you this implied total of 193 was +8 points more than the lowest of the night? You would at least think twice before driving-by entirely, right? Well, the options remain the same as always for both sides. Hassan Whiteside (questionable) has averaged 20.4 minutes off the bench in his last three games, but his 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over that time render his actual minutes-logged useless. Though San Antonio has suffocated opposing centers to -1.6 points below expectations, Whiteside’s salary has decreased -$400 since his last performance (in which he recorded 10-10). He’s a fine tournament play even with the unfortunate matchup at-hand. Chris Bosh is in a similar predicament, except that he’s personally failed to meet expectations by an incredibly poor -5.45 points over his last five games. Given his fall in salary for the third consecutive game, limited exposure (at the least) is suggested.
No Manu Ginobli has yet to lead to more time for Kyle Anderson, who logged only 9.2 minutes in their last game. It’s an equivalent situation for Boban Marjanovic, who continues to only see run in leads of 20-plus points. Kawhi Leonard is now implied to score “only” 33.63 points, but his disparity in minutes has seen him fail to meet expectations by -3.28 points in his last 10 games (and -4.21 over the last month). Still, he’s a cash play in this slate, I guess.
In related news, don’t play cash games in this slate.
Washington Wizards (-1) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 104 – 103, O/U: 207
John Wall has scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in five of his last six performances, achieving 41 in seven straight. He’s exceeded expectations by +9.94 points over that time. Despite his recent +$300 hike in salary, Wall arguably makes for the strongest cash option at his position as the Knicks have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8 allowed to point guards. Bradley Beal should also be heavily considered as he’s scored 30.25 and 30 DraftKings points in consecutive games as a starter. Although he logged only 20.1 minutes in his last outing, note it was the second leg of a back-to-back (in which he logged 31.8 minutes the night prior). It won’t be long before his $6,100 salary takes an incredulous jump.
Your guess is as good as mine as it pertains to the Knicks and their new head coach, but I would expect slightly fewer minutes for Jose Calderon, in turn seeing an uptick for Langston Galloway — his salary decreased -$500 since their last outing against the Nuggets. Either way, Washington’s back court remains one of the worst in defending opposing guards as shown by their Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 at the point, +1.4 off-ball.
Though he’s exceeded expectations by +13.90 points in his last two performances, Kristaps Porzingis’ salary has risen for the second consecutive game. Now implied to score at least 31.83 points in order to return value, our models show Porzingis with a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.6. He’s only considered a “value” at FanDuel where he holds a Bargain Rating of 94%. The same can be said for Carmelo Anthony at DraftKings where he’s priced -$500 cheaper. If choosing only one for cash, note Anthony’s projected floor is +13.2 points greater than that of his teammate’s.
Boston Celtics (-4.5) at Milwaukee Bucks
Implied Total: 106.5 – 102, O/U: 208.5
Don’t ask me how Tyler Zeller worked his way back into this rotation. All I know is that he’s exceeded expectations by a whopping +14.13 points over his last four games, averaging 20.3 minutes in that span. Still implied to score a lowly total of 16.19, forget about ownership percentages and load up on his $3,800 salary while you still can. This being the second-highest total of the night, both he and Amir Johnson are well worth rostering despite their projected floors of 3.1 and 1.8.
Isaiah Thomas remains the obvious play in cash in their back court, but Evan Turner has forced his way into consideration over Avery Bradley off-ball. Over his last 10 games, Turner has exceeded expectations by +9.51 points. Milwaukee has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 allowed to shooting guards, giving Turner (implied to score 24.47 points) the nod for one more night. Although he’s continued to receive minutes, note Marcus Smart has failed to meet expectations by -4.68 points in his last four performances. If anything, his decrease in salary for the third consecutive game makes for enticing tournament exposure.
Jarryd Bayless continues to eat into Michael Carter-Williams’ minutes when healthy, as the latter has averaged -7.2 fewer DraftKings points in -3.9 minutes when both suit up. Carter-Williams is implied to score only 25.85 points, but note Bayless has logged more minutes (55.8/54.1) in their last two games together. Considering his assumed low ownership, it’s a terrific spot for Bayless as the Celtics have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards in tonight’s slate.
Greg Monroe arguably makes for the top option among centers as his salary has decreased for…well, for no reason, really. Along with 11 Pro Trends, his 94% Bargain Rating at DraftKings make him one of the easiest rosters of the night. It only bodes well that Boston has allowed +1.1 points above expectations at his position.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks (-1.5)
Implied Total: 91.8 – 93.3, O/U: 185
Allow me to direct you towards our recent sit-down with SI’s senior Jazz reporter, Ben Dowsett, who discussed this game, as well as Utah’s stifling defense (and why we’re avoiding them in this particular matchup) in length.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-14)
Implied Total: 107.8 – 122.3, O/U: 229.5
This opening total of 230 actually rivals that of Wizards-Warriors from Saturday, only it falls short a mere 0.5. Whatever the case, this is clearly where you’ll want your exposure (or as much as DraftKings will allow, anyways).
Stephen Curry has seen his price rise as of late, now slated as an even-keeled $11K. Although implied to score 49.31 points before even rostering him, Curry has surpassed that total in each of his last two games (and seven out of his last 10). There’s a legitimate question as to whether or not you should pay for him given that the Warriors are 14.5-point favorites (leading to a potential blowout), but his Projected Plus/Minus of +4.0 suggests he’s worth it, even at that price.
As for James Harden, he’s scored at least 52.5 DraftKings points in 80% of his last 10 performances, eclipsing 60 in four of those. His projected floor of 33.2 points is clearly the best at his position, but, being implied to score 47.47 points and all, I do believe there’s a much better avenue to be had in roster construction by resorting to some of the less expensive options at his position rattled off earlier. Even Klay Thompson, who has the second-highest projected floor among off-ball guards, is at least opposing a fortuitous Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.7.
Expect Trevor Ariza to once again start at the four where 1) he’ll likely be guarded by Draymond Green (while the Warriors stay big) and 2) Golden State has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.7. Tournament exposure towards Corey Brewer, who’s exceeded expectations by +3.00 points over his last 10 games, is probably more considerable than paying up for Ariza in this matchup.
No matter who rotates to power forward for Houston, it’s a terrific matchup for Green, whose Projected Plus/Minus of +3.7 is second-highest at his position. Though a slight salary increase from his last appearance, Green is still implied to score “only” 41.49 points in order to return value — he’s exceeded that expectation in three of his last four performances. Considering cheaper options elsewhere in this slate, spending-up here and instead, down at shooting guard or center (for at least one lineup) seems to be the way to go.
Good luck tonight!
