Let’s jump right into this 10-game Monday slate.
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets (-6.5)
Implied Total: 98.0 – 104.5, O/U: 202.5
This game is very average in terms of the Vegas lines, but is sneakily a good place to find some value because of injuries. Jimmy Butler is out for the Bulls, which means that both Tony Snell and E’Twaun Moore will both see a continued bump. Snell isn’t very interesting at this point — even with the bump in minutes and even drawing starts, he’s disappointed, whereas Moore has at least shown the ability to put up a full line at times. Derrick Rose has been on an absolute tear lately, mostly due to high usage and stat stuffing (bad shooting is still there, of course) and without Jimmy, he’s in play for sure. Pau Gasol remains a strong play in both contest formats and Taj Gibson is okay in a tournament lineup or two.
Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum both have been excellent in the last couple of games, and without Jimmy Butler to slow anyone up on the perimeter, this is a nice spot for both players. Marvin Williams continues his consistent play and even though his price has risen a bit ($5.5k on DK), you could do worse in cash. MKG is back and playing well, although his minutes are too up and down right now to trust in cash and the ceiling isn’t there for tournaments. The same thing can be said for the Hornets’ big men, although a Kaminsky or Hawes dart isn’t a terrible idea, considering the Bulls are the worst team in the NBA to centers.
LA Clippers (-9) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 107.3 – 98.3, O/U: 205.5
The Clippers are on a back-to-back after pounding it out with the Miami Heat defense, but get a soft matchup here against Philly. The guys we typically look at for LA — Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan — are actually pretty solid plays here and could be a bit glossed over if people are wary about the blowout factor. I think the B2B and traveling on the road could lead to a perhaps closer game than one might think, forcing CP3 and Jordan into a full minute load. Jamal Crawford and JJ Redick have been consistent lately — they’re average to slightly above cash-game options at their position.
Ish Smith is questionable tonight — he’s a tournament option only if he starts, whereas TJ McConnell is a little more interesting in both formats if Ish sits. McConnell’s price rose (up to $4.1 from $3.4), but is still cheap enough that he should hit his value if he gets 30-ish minutes as expected without Ish. Both Nerlens and Okafor (especially with 52.3 DK points) crushed without Ish last game (which is a surprising trend), but I think that’s probably a fluky situation. I’m mostly getting off the big men here and sticking with Ish or McConnell depending on the news.
LA Lakers at Indiana Pacers (-11.5)
Implied Total: 97.5 – 109.0, O/U: 206.5
Derrick Fisher loses his job in NY and Byron Scott keeps rolling along in Lakerland — basketball is fun. Julius Randle is probable for tonight and is coming off a very impressive game, scoring 46.3 DK points in 31 minutes on the Spurs on the road. He’s grabbing a ton of boards lately — a fairly consistent stat — and while the spread might scare you off cash (and injury status), Randle is a nice tourney play at least. Kobe is questionable and if he plays is definitely a great tourney play — he’s been taking a ton of shots every game and his $6.1k price tag is nowhere close to what we’d expect from a guy with his usage. Other than that, not much to see here from the Lakers side (except Lou if Kobe sits).
The Lakers defense is, well, not good. Really to any position. Paul George has put together three solid games in a row and the matchup here definitely dictates both contest format exposure. I love Monta Ellis as a tourney play tonight considering the Lakers’ struggles against ball-dominant guards. George Hill could be included in that as well, and I can’t mention the Pacers as 11.5-point favorites and not throw a Jordan Hill tourney recommendation in honor of JHill apologist, Jay.
Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers (-12.5)
Implied Total: 103.3 – 115.8, O/U: 219
The total and especially the Cavs’ implied points is quite juicy, so this will definitely be a game to keep your eye on. Starting with the Kings, I typically always avoid playing big men against the Cavs, but perhaps Cousins is the exception here. I think in a slate with other studs you look elsewhere in cash game because of the matchup, but I think heavily targeting Boogie (at hopefully reduced ownership as a result) in tournaments is a great call tonight. Unfortunately, Boogie is the only player I think can overcome the matchup, so I’m off the other Kings, although some Rondo in tournaments is understandable as a contrarian play.
Kevin Love is probable to play tonight and, along with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, is in a great spot with this huge total and implied points. LeBron is expensive but seems like a lock to hit value, so roll in cash for sure. Love is probably more of a tournament option given the injury risk, while Kyrie is still very underpriced at only $7.2k on DK in a dream matchup (PGs against Sac is one of the five best matchups in the NBA). Tristan Thompson is always a bit intriguing in tournaments, but foul trouble against Boogie takes him off my radar tonight — I’m sticking with the Big 3 tonight. (Alright fine, gimme some JR too.)
Denver Nuggets (-2) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 103.3 – 101.3, O/U: 204.5
This is one of the sneaky-awesome DFS games on the slate, in my opinion. Although the total isn’t very high (204.5 is ok), the fact that both teams are awful defensively, have very definable DFS playable guys, and the spread is close. Danilo Gallinari is the highest-priced Nugget and is more of a tournament play than cash at his $7k price point. Jokic’s salary has jumped way up, which makes him tournament only as well because of his low minute threshold. Mudiay is probably the best play for Denver, as he’s been playing well of late, gets the bad Nets backcourt, and has guaranteed high minutes. Will Barton is always on tournament radars as well with his super-high ceiling.
On the other side, Brook Lopez is an easy play tonight, even coming off a very disappointing 24.3 DK point night against the lowly 76ers. I’m not scared off him at all and am very willing to roll him out in both cash and tournaments tonight. Thad is up there as well and his price is probably way under where it should be at the moment — he’s fine in both formats, though I definitely prefer him in tournaments. Joe Johnson is an option in tournaments — he threw up a dud last game but was dominating for a couple before that. Don’t get mixed up on the Wayne Ellington or Donald Sloan train.
Toronto Raptors (-1.5) at Detroit Pistons
Implied Total: 105.5 – 104.0, O/U: 209.5
This game is fairly hard to peg — the total is a nice one and the spread is close, but both teams are fairly tough defensively at positions we’re usually interested in. On the Raptors side, both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan — Toronto’s two DFS studs — are about average cash-game options tonight, and always fine in tournaments because of their high ceilings in any matchup. Valanciunas could get into foul trouble against Drummond, and his ceiling is low anyway, so he’s not really on my radar. Bismack Biyombo is potentially interesting in tournaments because of the potential JV foul trouble and his low $3.9k price, but overall, not a lot of amazing plays for the Raps tonight.
Unfortunately, the same thing is the case for the Pistons. Drummond has been consistent lately and is an average to slight above cash-game option (and always tournament option because of his 20-20 ceiling). Reggie is in the same boat and is finally getting 30-plus minutes consistently. Marcus Morris the same…(I know, not the most exciting breakdown, but that’s indicative of this game). Stanley Johnson continues to be the most intriguing guy with KCP out, and I think his salary and ceiling are definitely good enough to target him heavily in tournaments here.
New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5)
Implied Total: 104.3 – 105.8, O/U: 210
Anthony Davis currently has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the night at +7.8, so consider him easily in play if you’re okay with stomaching the risk of Anthony Davis and his fragile body in cash games. Tyreke Evans remains out through the ASB, which means Norris Cole will likely see 30-ish minutes again. Despite that and his moderate salary (not great at $5.9k), he’s a tournament play at best. Jrue’s minutes haven’t really been affected, so keep him at a tournament play in this matchup. It’s honestly hard to get excited about any of the Pelicans players right now, even with the good Vegas line. That implies there should be some value, but it’s not readily visible — that means focus on Brow and throw some darts in tourneys.
Karl-Anthony Towns is in a similarly great spot as Davis considering salaries. He’s definitely playable in both cash and tournaments and I like the strategy of stacking both him and Brow in a tournament lineup in hopes they and this game goes off as the total implies. Dieng has an elite ceiling (as shown by his 54 DK outing against Chicago last game), so he’s definitely in play in tournaments and could be a nice pivot off the probably high-owned KAT. Wiggins and Rubio are both tournament plays in this matchup as well.
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks (-8)
Implied Total: 97.3 – 105.3, O/U: 202.5
Victor Oladipo is getting just an insane amount of minutes lately, as the lineup as been shaken up a bit with Tobias Harris out last game and questionable for tonight. If Oladipo gets close to 40 minutes (very possible given the recent rotation), it’s very hard to leave him out of your lineups at only $6.9k on DK. In this matchup, Nikola Vucevic is only a tournament option and not a great one at that. There are some elite tournament plays here though — take a long look at Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and Evan Fournier (if Tobias sits).
The only player I ever really use for Atlanta is Paul Millsap and I think he’s a fine cash-game play tonight, as usual. Horford has the higher ceiling but lower floor of the two, so he’s the tourney option if you want a Hawks big man. Kent Bazemore is a really nice tournament play, and especially so if he’s matched up against Evan Fournier instead of Tobias. Teague has been up and down, but his $6k won’t cripple you in tournaments if you want to get him at a low ownership, although the matchup isn’t a great one.
Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5)
Implied Total: 98.0 – 101.5, O/U: 199.5
Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have been hot lately, but the Grizzlies are a tough, slow-paced team — that means both players are tournament-only options tonight (and I much prefer Lillard of the two). Aminu is somewhat sneaky now — he was heavily owned early in the year, then dropped completely off, but now is doing Aminu-y things again. Don’t use him in cash, but he’ll be a very low-owned tournament guy that I don’t hate if he ends up in your lineup. Other than that, not much else for Portland tonight.
It’s always good to target big men against the bad Portland frontcourt, but I do think that Marc Gasol’s recent struggles takes him out of cash games, especially given the better options like Brook Lopez and KAT. However, he’s a very nice pivot in tournaments from those guys. ZBo is the same way and think he’s a very sneaky, yet really good tournament play — I’ll have more than the field of him tonight. Damian Lillard isn’t a great defender, but Conley is always in that no-play zone for me — his floor is fairly low given usage but his ceiling isn’t really high enough to target either. Matt Barnes went off last game, so perhaps you could points chase a bit there, although I’m generally not a fan of that (actually, I’m definitely not — don’t do it).
OKC Thunder (-13.5) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 114.5 – 101.0, O/U: 215.5
The Thunder are coming off a heartbreaking game where they fought all the way back in the fourth quarter at Golden State to make it a game, got superb performances from their stars in Durant and Westbrook, and couldn’t hold on in the end. But now they get…the Suns. This could get ugly. There’s the blowout factor of course (the spread is high at 13.5 right now and will probably climb), but Durant and Westbrook could be pissed and take things out on the lowly Suns — count me in for tournaments. Kanter is also a good play here if you want to get exposure to the game but think it might be a blowout — he thrives in those situations.
On the other side, I really do think this game is going to be very ugly. In theory, I get it — Devin Booker, Archie Goodwin, and some Markieff Morris aren’t bad ideas in tournaments — but I’m so worried about gameflow and utter Thunder domination that I’m really going to limit my exposure here. Throw some darts with the players listed above, but don’t go crazy.
Good luck!
