With only two players priced over $9K in tonight’s slate (one over $10K), value isn’t the issue, but rather which value you direct exposure towards. Let’s sift through a majority of it in our game-by-game breakdown.
Boston Celtics (-4) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 106.5 – 102.5, O/U: 209
Featuring the largest implied total of the night, there are a few injuries that would certainly alter exposure here given their outcome.
With Jose Calderon set to return, it’s as good a time as any to get off Langston Galloway (at DraftKings, anyways, where, unlike FanDuel, he doesn’t hold a Bargain Rating of 89%). Though he’s averaged 31.1 DraftKings points in 32.1 minutes as a starter for the Knicks, those numbers plummet to 17.4/23.9 when coming off the bench. New York, after all, will have just about everyone healthy for the first night in quite some time and although Boston has been exploited by point guards (where they hold an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8), Carmelo Anthony and his slate-high 13 Pro Trends seem like the only safe option for the Knicks in cash games.
The moment Brad Stevens finally embraced a nine-man rotation was of course the moment that Jae Crowder had to go and get banged up. He’s questionable for tonight. Depending on his status, it should be noted that the five-man unit of Marcus Smart-Avery Bradley-Evan Turner-Jonas Jerebko-Kelly Olynyk have logged 81.5 minutes more than any other lineup for the Celtics with Crowder off the court. Either way, Jerebko makes for an underrated tournament play as he’s implied to score only 12.97 points – he’s averaged 24.1 DraftKings points in 20.3 minutes in consecutive games.
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets (-4)
Implied Total: 100.5 – 104.5, O/U: 207
Rumor has it the Heat is involved in an implied total over 200 for only the ninth time this season. Given his recent play (and the Rockets Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.8 at his position), Dwyane Wade should have no issues exceeding his implied total of 32.29. Even if cumulatively using his recent hike in salary (now $7,300) to gauge his production, Wade would’ve exceeded expectations by +14.27 points.
The starting centers being absent in this particular matchup – Hassan Whiteside due to lingering effects of his oblique, Dwight Howard to suspension – leaves a bevy of value behind them. For starters, Amare Stoudemire has averaged 25.3 DraftKings points in 22.2 minutes over his last five games. Though a projected floor of 2.4 points, his lowly implied total of 18.95 points is viable in tournaments, especially considering Houston has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to opposing centers (where Stoudemire will start and Chris Bosh will rotate) in this slate.
Clint Capela (likely) starting at center means continued opportunity for Trevor Ariza at the four, where he’s scored 35.7 DraftKings points on a team-high 36.8 minutes over his last six games. It’s even more advantageous that Miami has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2 allowed to power forwards, but +0.2 allowed to small forwards (where Corey Brewer is projected to start). Rather than pivoting towards Capela (who our models show with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.8), however, exposure should (unfortunately) remain towards Josh Smith, who’s recorded a usage of 26.7 in three games without Howard this season. His projected floor of 5.3 points, as well as the fact that he’s Josh-effing-Smith, keeps him out of cash considerations entirely.
(You can read more on usage without Howard in this piece from Bryan Mears.)
Toronto Raptors (-9.5) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 104.5 – 95, O/U: 199.5
Admittedly, with all other standout games in this slate, I won’t be looking for much (if anything) from this one. Archie Goodwin logged 36.4 minutes in his last performance but failed to meet expectations by a whopping -16.89 points. Guaranteed minutes ensure him as a fine tournament play, but his Projected Plus/Minus of -3.3 remains worrisome. If anything, continue loading up on at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%. Same goes for Devin Booker (with a Bargain Rating of 91%).
Oh, and don’t worry about Kyle Lowry’s performance against the Nuggets. With a pace differential of +4.4, Lowry (and the Raptors as a whole) are in perfect position for a low-exposure bounce-back spot in tournaments. Note his projected floor of 25.7 points is second only to James Harden in the entirety of tonight’s player pool.
(More on the Raptors and their performance in back-to-backs in our Trend of the Day.)
Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trailblazers (-7)
Implied Total: 99 – 106, O/U: 205
Even without John Henson (out again tonight), Miles Plumlee has logged 13 minutes in back-to-back games. Instead, Jason Kidd has extended Greg Monroe’s minutes, having him play 34.1 and 34.6 in his last two performances. Though our models show Portland with a miniscule Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.4 at center, Monroe’s additional work (and projected floor of 10.2 points) remains a strong option in cash games. Michael Carter-Williams, on the other hand, remains strictly a tournament option following his performance of 48.25 DraftKings points against the Kings, as our models show him with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.2.
Damian Lillard has scored at least 39.5 DraftKings points in four consecutive games, including 42.7 in three of four, but he’s failed to meet expectations by an average of -1.18 over his last 10. Given his implied total of 41.03 points and Consistency Percentage of only 23%, it’s likely best to look elsewhere to spend at point guard. He’s implied to score only 35.37 at FanDuel.
Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 104.5 – 100, O/U: 204.5
Karl-Anthony Towns has exc…
(coughing…)
Sorry. Choked on chalk for a second there.
Factor in everything – his 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, the Lakers Opponent Plus/Minus of +3 allowed to centers, likely no Nikola Pekovic or Kevin Garnett (both doubtful), double-digit Pro Trends, etc. – and it’s no secret that exposure is warranted, if not mandatory here. The key is really in building a unique lineup around him (but hey, that’s what our new lineup builder tools are for!). And though that won’t end with Gorgui Dieng (he had an ownership of over 46% in most contests last night), stacking the two could certainly begin a winning roster; despite his recent rise in salary, for instance, our models still show Dieng with the highest Projected Plus/Minus (+12.2) in tonight’s player pool. As for Zach LaVine, it all comes down to whether or not you believe he’ll receive the minutes.
LaVine departed Oklahoma City just last week having exceeded expectations by +21.55 points in ensuing nights, only to essentially meet said expectations by +0.43 points in his last two. His most recent outing against Portland was especially troubling because it wasn’t even his performance at that time that limited him, but rather more Sam Mitchell shenanigans. Either way, Los Angeles has the largest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards in tonight’s slate and LaVine has averaged 24.3 minutes when Kevin Martin (doubtful) has been ruled out.
Good luck tonight!
