Quite honestly, if you’re reading a breakdown for a two-game basketball slate, then you’re my favorite type of player and I wish you all the best. Let’s get to it.
Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks (-1)
Implied Total: 105 – 106, O/U: 212
With Miles Plumlee and O.J. Mayo slated to start in place of Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams for a second time, we don’t have to look too far for relevant numbers according to how each will be used. There’s always the possibility that Kidd pulls a Kidd – better known as an obscure lineup change that inevitably screws someone over – but both logged only 18.5 minutes in the starting-five in their last outing. Even off the bench, Monroe recorded a team-high usage rate of 38.6%, finishing with 54.5 DraftKings points in 29.5 minutes. His salary has risen +$300 since that performance, but his 10 Pro Trends remain the highest among centers. His 95% Bargain Rating at DraftKings is also enticing. Considering this to be the closer game of the two in tonight’s slate, Monroe is arguably the top option in cash at his position (you know, for all those masochists playing cash in a two-game slate). Still, if looking for a safer play with less upside among centers: Marcin Gortat has strung together a ridiculous Consistency Percentage of 83% over his last 12 games.
Although his salary stayed the same, I still believe Jerryd Bayless, not Carter-Williams, to be the better tournament play of the two. Attempting the third-most field goals per game from beyond the arc of any player this season, Bayless should have no issues exceeding his implied total of 18.95 points. With Washington’s issues in defending off-ball guards having been well-documented, note they also have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 allowed at the point (+1.4 allowed to shooting guards). Khris Middleton should also remain an integral cash option as he actually logged numerous minutes at point guard while Mayo was on the floor (which would explain his usage rate of 25.1% in their last game). His 33.3 DraftKings points were second only to Monroe, but he’s also not likely to shoot 37.5% from the field again.
One of the many strategies you could use in this slate would be to pay for John Wall (rather than fading him) and hope this game goes into overtime. Hope is never a strategy, but it’s hard to forego him given that he’s exceeded expectations by +12.73 points over his last seven performances. Bradley Beal is also considered a top option (assuming he’s in their starting five) – he’s averaged 34.8 DraftKings points in 28 minutes as a starter in their last three games. Although he’s now implied to score 28.61 points, note he exceeded that total in each of his aforementioned performances.
With most flocking to either Kevin Durant (we’ll get there) or Giannis Antetokounmpo at small forward, there’s merit in pivoting towards Jared Dudley’s minutes in tournaments. Having logged over 30 in four of his last six games, Nene being limited at this time has opened the door for Dudley to play somewhere around three positions per night. Despite his Projected Plus/Minus of -3.8, his 3.5 three-point attempts in his last seven games are certainly worth throwing a dart at in this smaller slate.
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder (-11.5)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 115.3, O/U: 218.5
In their first game of the at-least-we’re-now-certain-Tyreke-Evans-is-out era, Jrue Holiday came off the bench to record a team-high usage rate of 39.8% in 31 minutes. With his salary having inexplicably dropped for the second consecutive game, he’s the top option in New Orleans’ back court if attempting to stack this matchup. If you’re having issues fitting him alongside Durant and Russell Westbrook, note Toney Douglas logged only two fewer minutes than Norris Cole last night. Although implied to score the minimum of 12.51 points, Douglas would obviously qualify solely as a tournament play (unless of course you want to hate yourself for rostering him in cash, in which case you should tweet me your lineup and I’ll gladly send you a free shirt or something).
Oklahoma City has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers of the four teams in tonight’s slate. With a majority of players likely focused on Gortat and Monroe, it should be noted that Alexis Ajinca accumulated 1.04 DraftKings points per minute against Utah last night. He obviously had his role extended due to Utah’s habitually larger rotation, but even Enes Kanter (who our models show with a Projected Plus/Minus of -5.1) would clearly qualify as a big when the Thunder choose to go small. He’s implied to score the absolute minimum, meaning the limited exposure you have towards him shouldn’t hurt all that much.
As for the Big Three, Westbrook, Durant, and Anthony Davis all unsurprisingly have the three highest-projected floors in this slate (39.8/36.2/31.3). Despite his salary of $11,200 (now tied with DeMarcus Cousins for highest in any given slate), our models show Westbrook with a Projected Plus/Minus of +7.8. We’re all aware of what Davis can do when fully healthy, but Westbrook remains atop this player pool no matter the format as the Pelicans have allowed +1.5 points above salary-based expectations to opposing point guards. Forget about his inevitable ownership and pay up.
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