NBA

NBA DFS 1/9 Slate Breakdown

Playoffs? Nah. The only wild card today is whether or not the Jazz and Heat will eclipse 100 points combined. Our game-by-game breakdown of tonight’s seven-game slate previews that and more.

EARLY

Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (-7)

Implied Total: 105 – 97.5, O/U: 202.5

The Hornets have allowed 111.6 points per 100 possessions without Batum, 10 points more than their Defensive Rating of 101.6 when Batum has started. Though the Clippers are favored by 7.5, one could argue that Chris Paul – priced $1,300 cheaper than Stephen Curry, $200 cheaper than John Wall – makes for the best play at his position. Paul has recorded at least 11 assists in four consecutive games, averaging 45.56 DraftKings points over that span. With a potential blowout in the cards, however, the doors are left wide open for any one of the Clippers new bench unit.

Since Blake Griffin exited on Christmas day, the five-man unit of Austin Rivers-Pablo Prigioni-Jamal Crawford-Wesley Johnson-Cole Aldrich has logged the second-most time for the Clips (45 minutes, compared to the 79 minutes that their starters have played over that time). This particular lineup has allowed Johnson (who has exceeded his expectations in consecutive games) to spot up from beyond the arc while Aldrich has continuously rolled to the rim following screens set for their trio of guards. “We switch everything,” Austin Rivers had told NBA.com’s David Aldridge. “So the (opposing) guards are coming off, and they’re not having mismatches. We keep switching the guards, so what it does is, it forces one on one basketball.” Needless to say, Rivers has scored 31.5 and 20.75 DraftKings points in his last two games. Our models still slate Jamal Crawford with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the three.

Although Jeremy Lin has averaged 31.4 minutes without Batum in their last three games, his price is easier to accept at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 91%. I’m much more inclined to roster Kemba Walker at DraftKings as his newly implied total of 37.81 points (his salary rose $300 since Thursday) is a total he’s failed to achieve only once in the last seven games. A quick note to also keep an ear out for any news regarding Jeremy Lamb; he had been ‘upgraded’ early Thursday afternoon and scored only 5.25 DraftKings points in seven minutes (trust me, I know).

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks (-2)

Implied Total: 104.5 – 102.5, O/U: 207

Much has been made about the Bulls recent success, but it’s truly been a run that has everyone’s, not just one individual’s fingerprints on it. While Jimmy Butler has shot 51% and averaged 48.25 DraftKings points in his last five games, Derrick Rose has quietly risen to the top-12 in drives per game. Though it’s Butler who continues to post eye-popping numbers, Rose has quietly exceeded his expectations in three of his last five performances. And while this two-man game has been busy fine-tuning their inside-outside presence with one another, Pau Gasol has overshot his expectations by an average of +9.06 points in his last 10. Not to mention Nikola Mirotic, who has averaged 30.25 DraftKings points on 28.8 minutes over the last four. All four are formidable options on Saturday as the Hawks have only held opposing centers below their average expectations.

Mike Budenholzer will have 15 healthy players for the first time all season, which is like handing your kid a black card and allowing him to roam free throughout Toys-R-Us. Al Hordford scored 46.25 DraftKings points in their 124-98 victory over the Sixers but played only 24 minutes (his lowest since December 21). In turn, 13 different players logged at least seven minutes in that game, seven of which logged anywhere from 22-25 minutes. Kent Bazemore has shot 51.9% from the floor in his last four games, but the low ownership play in tournaments remains Dennis Schroeder over at FanDuel; Schroeder has a Bargain Rating of 89% and has exceeded his implied points by +4.19 and +11.19 in his last two games.

MAIN

Washington Wizards (2.5) at Orlando Magic

Implied Total: 100.3 – 97.8, O/U: 198

In their last three games, the Wizards have gone to switching in their pick-and-roll defense in order to stop wing players from shooting with the slight delay that comes in fighting through opposing screens. Although it slowed Dwayne Wade down in their first attempt, Gerald Green and Tyler Johnson finished with a combined 25 points on 10-of-20 shooting off the bench. Kyrie Irving laughed at their next attempt by simply penetrating off the screen, finishing with 32 points on 5.3 more drives than his season average. And last night, DeMar DeRozan finished with a season-high 35 points. Although this would seemingly mean a bounce-back for Evan Fournier (who has exceeded his expectations only once in the last five games), our exposure remains on Victor Oladipo as long as he starts. His price tag of $6,800, albeit $1,000 more than where it stood only two nights ago, is still considered “valuable” as his average DraftKings points scored in the last three games is the equivalent of someone priced at $8,600.

For the Wizards, John Wall could arguably be the best play in cash at his position. The Magic have been hemorrhaged by opposing point guards for +2.4 points above salary-based expectations and Wall – whose Upside Percentage is the highest of anyone with a Dud Percentage at or below 15% — saw a decrease in salary only two nights ago.

Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons (-11.5)

Implied Total: 104 – 92.5, O/U: 196.5

For the record, all of us here at Fantasy Labs are proud that we’re the only crew who has yet to buy into whatever the hell the Shane Larkin-train is called (a shipwreck?). He finished with 27.25 DraftKings points in his last start but shot 50% for the first time since December 23. I’d personally punt Donald Sloan (who has now logged at least 19 minutes in consecutives games) or Wayne Ellington (double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five) knowing full well our models project both with lower floors. The play for the Nets per usual is Brook Lopez as the Pistons have allowed an abysmal +3 points above expectations to opposing centers; opponents, for instance, have shot 48% when being defended by Andre Drummond.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has logged the fifth-most minutes of anyone this season and warrants cash considerations for his durability alone. His 73% Bargain Rating at DraftKings is tied for the highest at his position in a fortuitous matchup against Brooklyn (who has allowed +1 points above salary-based expectations to off-ball guards). Drummond’s ceiling remains as enticing as ever in tournaments, but note he has failed to meet expectations in four of his last five performances.

Toronto Raptors (-9) at Philadelphia Sixers

Implied Total: 105 – 96, O/U: 201

Since being inserted back into the starting lineup, Jahlil Okafor has finished with 21.75 and 32.25 DraftKings points. When sharing the floor with Ish Smith and Nerlens Noel, their team is scoring 114.6 points per 100 possessions (in only three games played together). Noel has arguably achieved cash-game status as he has averaged 35.4 DraftKings points since Smith joined them. Still, rostering Smith seems to be a nightly discussion as we have now seen his floor (17 points), median (21.25, 23.75), and ceiling (48 points) in each of the last four games. Though I personally avoid him on DraftKings, his 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel is too good to pass up.

Since Jonas Valanciunas returned, Bizmack Biyombo has logged 18, 27, 23, 15, 18, and 16 minutes. There has been no official word on his restrictions being limited, but it’s clear that Toronto is all-in on Valanciunas. He’s scored over 20 DraftKings points in six straight and will undoubtedly be priced under $6,000 for only so much longer. Note the Sixers have allowed +1.2 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers.

LATE

Miami Heat (-1.5) at Utah Jazz

Implied Total: 92.3 – 90.8, O/U: 183

The Heat are averaging 93.8 points on the road, a number that on its own would rank second-worst in the league. It’s a brutal game all-around as these two teams are playing at the slowest possible pace for any two teams combined — both franchises rank 29th and 30th-overall in possessions per 48 minutes. Forgive me, but I’ll have very little exposure (and word regarding) to this matchup.

Rudy Gobert returned against the Rockets and befuddled an already-dicey situation. He logged only 15 minutes and scored 9.75 DraftKings points. Jeff Withey received the initial start but was off the court in no time due to being exploited in the paint; Quin Snyder ended up leaning on Trey Lyles to improve their pick-and-roll defense. He finished with 30.8 DraftKings points in 33.7 minutes. It should also be noted that Derrick Favors has an outside chance of returning.

Like I said, I’ll have very little exposure.

Golden State Warriors (-7.5) at Sacramento Kings

Implied Total:  115.5 – 108, O/U: 223.5

Unlike the Jazz and Heat, these two teams play at the fastest combined pace in the league. Omri Casspi is expected to return, shoring up whatever excess minutes had been used in their previous outings between Quincy Acy and Kosta Koufos.

With Casspi healthy, the Kings are projected to return to the tight-knit rotation they had used prior to his injury; Casspi was one of only five players averaging over 29 minutes for Sacramento. Although it will differ once Draymond Green is used in their smaller lineup, the Warriors have an entirely neutral Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers. That bodes well for Cousins in cash games as his nine Pro Trends are tied for the second-most in tonight’s slate.

As for Golden State, Green has found his niche as a $10,000 player and is implied to score 44.71 points in order to return any value. Our Phan Model shows Green with the lowest Projected Plus/Minus at his position as even in recording a triple-double last night, he exceeded his implications by only 3.04 points. Similar salary concerns surround Stephen Curry as he has failed to reach his implied total in all three outings since returning from injury.

Klay Thompson has scored at least 42.75 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, shooting 47.8% from beyond the arc over that span. At $8,000, his implied total of 35.51 points is a number he’s failed to achieve only three times in the last month. Even with a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.3, it’s an amazing spot for Thompson (above all Warriors) as the Kings have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 points allowed to shooting guards.

If playing the night slate, keep your exposure here.

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No related posts.

Playoffs? Nah. The only wild card today is whether or not the Jazz and Heat will eclipse 100 points combined. Our game-by-game breakdown of tonight’s seven-game slate previews that and more.

EARLY

Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (-7)

Implied Total: 105 – 97.5, O/U: 202.5

The Hornets have allowed 111.6 points per 100 possessions without Batum, 10 points more than their Defensive Rating of 101.6 when Batum has started. Though the Clippers are favored by 7.5, one could argue that Chris Paul – priced $1,300 cheaper than Stephen Curry, $200 cheaper than John Wall – makes for the best play at his position. Paul has recorded at least 11 assists in four consecutive games, averaging 45.56 DraftKings points over that span. With a potential blowout in the cards, however, the doors are left wide open for any one of the Clippers new bench unit.

Since Blake Griffin exited on Christmas day, the five-man unit of Austin Rivers-Pablo Prigioni-Jamal Crawford-Wesley Johnson-Cole Aldrich has logged the second-most time for the Clips (45 minutes, compared to the 79 minutes that their starters have played over that time). This particular lineup has allowed Johnson (who has exceeded his expectations in consecutive games) to spot up from beyond the arc while Aldrich has continuously rolled to the rim following screens set for their trio of guards. “We switch everything,” Austin Rivers had told NBA.com’s David Aldridge. “So the (opposing) guards are coming off, and they’re not having mismatches. We keep switching the guards, so what it does is, it forces one on one basketball.” Needless to say, Rivers has scored 31.5 and 20.75 DraftKings points in his last two games. Our models still slate Jamal Crawford with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the three.

Although Jeremy Lin has averaged 31.4 minutes without Batum in their last three games, his price is easier to accept at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 91%. I’m much more inclined to roster Kemba Walker at DraftKings as his newly implied total of 37.81 points (his salary rose $300 since Thursday) is a total he’s failed to achieve only once in the last seven games. A quick note to also keep an ear out for any news regarding Jeremy Lamb; he had been ‘upgraded’ early Thursday afternoon and scored only 5.25 DraftKings points in seven minutes (trust me, I know).

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks (-2)

Implied Total: 104.5 – 102.5, O/U: 207

Much has been made about the Bulls recent success, but it’s truly been a run that has everyone’s, not just one individual’s fingerprints on it. While Jimmy Butler has shot 51% and averaged 48.25 DraftKings points in his last five games, Derrick Rose has quietly risen to the top-12 in drives per game. Though it’s Butler who continues to post eye-popping numbers, Rose has quietly exceeded his expectations in three of his last five performances. And while this two-man game has been busy fine-tuning their inside-outside presence with one another, Pau Gasol has overshot his expectations by an average of +9.06 points in his last 10. Not to mention Nikola Mirotic, who has averaged 30.25 DraftKings points on 28.8 minutes over the last four. All four are formidable options on Saturday as the Hawks have only held opposing centers below their average expectations.

Mike Budenholzer will have 15 healthy players for the first time all season, which is like handing your kid a black card and allowing him to roam free throughout Toys-R-Us. Al Hordford scored 46.25 DraftKings points in their 124-98 victory over the Sixers but played only 24 minutes (his lowest since December 21). In turn, 13 different players logged at least seven minutes in that game, seven of which logged anywhere from 22-25 minutes. Kent Bazemore has shot 51.9% from the floor in his last four games, but the low ownership play in tournaments remains Dennis Schroeder over at FanDuel; Schroeder has a Bargain Rating of 89% and has exceeded his implied points by +4.19 and +11.19 in his last two games.

MAIN

Washington Wizards (2.5) at Orlando Magic

Implied Total: 100.3 – 97.8, O/U: 198

In their last three games, the Wizards have gone to switching in their pick-and-roll defense in order to stop wing players from shooting with the slight delay that comes in fighting through opposing screens. Although it slowed Dwayne Wade down in their first attempt, Gerald Green and Tyler Johnson finished with a combined 25 points on 10-of-20 shooting off the bench. Kyrie Irving laughed at their next attempt by simply penetrating off the screen, finishing with 32 points on 5.3 more drives than his season average. And last night, DeMar DeRozan finished with a season-high 35 points. Although this would seemingly mean a bounce-back for Evan Fournier (who has exceeded his expectations only once in the last five games), our exposure remains on Victor Oladipo as long as he starts. His price tag of $6,800, albeit $1,000 more than where it stood only two nights ago, is still considered “valuable” as his average DraftKings points scored in the last three games is the equivalent of someone priced at $8,600.

For the Wizards, John Wall could arguably be the best play in cash at his position. The Magic have been hemorrhaged by opposing point guards for +2.4 points above salary-based expectations and Wall – whose Upside Percentage is the highest of anyone with a Dud Percentage at or below 15% — saw a decrease in salary only two nights ago.

Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons (-11.5)

Implied Total: 104 – 92.5, O/U: 196.5

For the record, all of us here at Fantasy Labs are proud that we’re the only crew who has yet to buy into whatever the hell the Shane Larkin-train is called (a shipwreck?). He finished with 27.25 DraftKings points in his last start but shot 50% for the first time since December 23. I’d personally punt Donald Sloan (who has now logged at least 19 minutes in consecutives games) or Wayne Ellington (double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five) knowing full well our models project both with lower floors. The play for the Nets per usual is Brook Lopez as the Pistons have allowed an abysmal +3 points above expectations to opposing centers; opponents, for instance, have shot 48% when being defended by Andre Drummond.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has logged the fifth-most minutes of anyone this season and warrants cash considerations for his durability alone. His 73% Bargain Rating at DraftKings is tied for the highest at his position in a fortuitous matchup against Brooklyn (who has allowed +1 points above salary-based expectations to off-ball guards). Drummond’s ceiling remains as enticing as ever in tournaments, but note he has failed to meet expectations in four of his last five performances.

Toronto Raptors (-9) at Philadelphia Sixers

Implied Total: 105 – 96, O/U: 201

Since being inserted back into the starting lineup, Jahlil Okafor has finished with 21.75 and 32.25 DraftKings points. When sharing the floor with Ish Smith and Nerlens Noel, their team is scoring 114.6 points per 100 possessions (in only three games played together). Noel has arguably achieved cash-game status as he has averaged 35.4 DraftKings points since Smith joined them. Still, rostering Smith seems to be a nightly discussion as we have now seen his floor (17 points), median (21.25, 23.75), and ceiling (48 points) in each of the last four games. Though I personally avoid him on DraftKings, his 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel is too good to pass up.

Since Jonas Valanciunas returned, Bizmack Biyombo has logged 18, 27, 23, 15, 18, and 16 minutes. There has been no official word on his restrictions being limited, but it’s clear that Toronto is all-in on Valanciunas. He’s scored over 20 DraftKings points in six straight and will undoubtedly be priced under $6,000 for only so much longer. Note the Sixers have allowed +1.2 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers.

LATE

Miami Heat (-1.5) at Utah Jazz

Implied Total: 92.3 – 90.8, O/U: 183

The Heat are averaging 93.8 points on the road, a number that on its own would rank second-worst in the league. It’s a brutal game all-around as these two teams are playing at the slowest possible pace for any two teams combined — both franchises rank 29th and 30th-overall in possessions per 48 minutes. Forgive me, but I’ll have very little exposure (and word regarding) to this matchup.

Rudy Gobert returned against the Rockets and befuddled an already-dicey situation. He logged only 15 minutes and scored 9.75 DraftKings points. Jeff Withey received the initial start but was off the court in no time due to being exploited in the paint; Quin Snyder ended up leaning on Trey Lyles to improve their pick-and-roll defense. He finished with 30.8 DraftKings points in 33.7 minutes. It should also be noted that Derrick Favors has an outside chance of returning.

Like I said, I’ll have very little exposure.

Golden State Warriors (-7.5) at Sacramento Kings

Implied Total:  115.5 – 108, O/U: 223.5

Unlike the Jazz and Heat, these two teams play at the fastest combined pace in the league. Omri Casspi is expected to return, shoring up whatever excess minutes had been used in their previous outings between Quincy Acy and Kosta Koufos.

With Casspi healthy, the Kings are projected to return to the tight-knit rotation they had used prior to his injury; Casspi was one of only five players averaging over 29 minutes for Sacramento. Although it will differ once Draymond Green is used in their smaller lineup, the Warriors have an entirely neutral Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers. That bodes well for Cousins in cash games as his nine Pro Trends are tied for the second-most in tonight’s slate.

As for Golden State, Green has found his niche as a $10,000 player and is implied to score 44.71 points in order to return any value. Our Phan Model shows Green with the lowest Projected Plus/Minus at his position as even in recording a triple-double last night, he exceeded his implications by only 3.04 points. Similar salary concerns surround Stephen Curry as he has failed to reach his implied total in all three outings since returning from injury.

Klay Thompson has scored at least 42.75 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, shooting 47.8% from beyond the arc over that span. At $8,000, his implied total of 35.51 points is a number he’s failed to achieve only three times in the last month. Even with a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.3, it’s an amazing spot for Thompson (above all Warriors) as the Kings have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 points allowed to shooting guards.

If playing the night slate, keep your exposure here.

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No related posts.