Who says a four-game slate can’t be exciting? On the menu are possible returns (GOBERT!), bargains galore, and shocking number of reasonably priced players (only James Harden and DeMarcus Cousins are priced above $9,000).
Dive in.
Atlanta Hawks (-9.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 108 – 98.5, O/U: 207.5
The good news is that the Sixers claim the title of worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards (+3.1) in tonight’s slate. The bad news is that the Hawks won the championship for not knowing what to do with they’re guards. Dennis Schroeder, for instance, followed up consecutive DNP-CD with seven points, four rebounds, and eight assists accumulated in clutch minutes in his last game. Meanwhile, Jeff Teague missed out on recording at least one assist for the first time in two seasons. It’s easy to say Teague would be the obvious play, but nothing seems obvious with the Hawks backcourt (especially since our models show Teague with a Projected Plus/Minus of -1.4). Having said that, taking a swing at Schroeder’s 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel isn’t the worst idea.
In his last game, Ish Smith crushed his implied total of 30.45 points by 18. Though his salary has stayed the same for the first time since joining Philadelphia, our models show Smith with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.6. His Rating remains higher at FanDuel due to his 97% Bargain Rating.
Nerlens Noel has also been effected by Smith, averaging an additional 10.8 DraftKings points in the six games played alongside him. Even if Jahlil Okafor were to receive his second consecutive start (which we fully expect), note Noel played 30 minutes in his last outing. The loser in all of this has continued to be Robert Covington, who logged only six minutes against Minnesota. Still, our models show Covington with a projected ceiling of 32.1 points.
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (-6)
Implied Total: 104.5 – 98.5, O/U: 204
With Avery Bradley out for one more game, the Celtics will likely continue starting Kelly Olynyk (to give them an outside shooting presence with Evan Turner starting) and bringing both Jared Sullinger and Jonas Jerebko off the bench. That essentially eliminates David Lee from the rotation completely (as Brad Stevens had told him) and assures minutes for the lot of Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Turner, the latter of which who has now scored at least 24 DraftKings points in his last two. Lost in all of this, however, is the fact that Amir Johnson is a power forward in every notion of the word except at FanDuel.
Johnson has a 74% Bargain Rating at FanDuel and still qualifies as a center. Even though Olynyk is priced $100 cheaper (and has logged a total of three more minutes since Bradley went out), Johnson has now exceeded his salary-based expectations in five of his last six performances. It also helps that, coming from someone who personally rostered him over the last three contests, you’re guaranteed to get him at an exposure lower than 2%.
As it pertains to Chicago, I can generally close my eyes on any given night and take a wild gander that either Pau Gasol or Brook Lopez ranks atop our models at center (spoiler alert: it’s Pau tonight). And why not? Having now exceeded his salary-based expectations by +9.15 points over his last 10 games, he remains criminally underpriced (even at DraftKings, where the term “criminally underpriced” can be used for every center). Gasol remains listed as a power forward for $900 more at FanDuel, but the nightly question remains the same: Can he exceed the implied points of this salary as opposed to his price at DraftKings? And the answer, as always, is yes. And he’s proven it in eight of his last nine games.
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets (-8)
Implied Total: 103 – 95, O/U: 198
Following his worst performance in recent weeks, Jeff Withey should return to normal form without San Antonio lined up opposite of him. Houston has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 points allowed to opposing centers and Withey has averaged 27.1 DraftKings points in eight games without Derrick Favors. Gordon Hayward has also averaged 3.5 more DraftKings points over that span. If Rudy Gobert’s music were to hit (he’s currently listed as questionable), then it would probably be best to shy away from Utah centers entirely.
If Dwight Howard were to sit, it would open the doors for the likes of Clint Capela and Terrence Jones. In the six games Capela started at center this season, he averaged 27.5 DraftKings points. Jones would likely play upwards of 30 minutes without Howard seeing as Donatas Motiejunas has already been declared out. If Howard plays, Jones would remain the more underrated tournament play (coming off the bench) as Utah has limited opposing forwards to -1.8 points below expectations.
Both back courts are worth watching down to the wire as Trey Burke has logged at least 29 minutes in four of his last five games (the lone instance being last night’s 24-minute performance in which he still went 10-for-17 from the floor). Jason Terry quietly played 30 minutes and scored 21.75 DraftKings points without Ty Lawson (who is currently listed as questionable) available last game.
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings (-8.5)
Implied Total: 110.5 – 102, O/U: 212.5
DeMarcus Cousins is tied for the most Pro Trends at power forward tonight, as Sacramento’s implied total of 110.5 is the highest of this slate. The real news is whether or not Rajon Rondo and Omri Casspie will play. Without two of their starters against the Mavericks, Darren Collison and Marco Belinelli each logged at least 43 minutes. Consider Collison in cash only if Rondo is out, as the Lakers have allowed a whopping +2.7 points above expectations to point guards.
Although Kobe Bryant is in line to play, that shouldn’t ruin Jordan Clarkson. Implied to score 24.93 points, Clarkson has averaged 27.6 DraftKings points in 27 games with Bryant. Lou Williams, on the other hand, has led the Lakers in DraftKings points with an average of 28.2 without Kobe. That number sinks to 22.6 in all other instances. Sacramento has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1 allowed to shooting guards and even Bryant, 77% Bargain Rating at DraftKings and all, is in play as long as he suits up.
Finally, tonight might be our swan song for Larry Nance priced under $5,000. Though he played only 20 minutes in their blowout to the Warriors, Nance has scored over 20 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, exceeding his expectations by +4.84 points over his last 10. Julius Randle continues to have higher upside (shown in his projected ceiling of 35.1 points), but no matter: Nance has received the minutes.
Good luck tonight.
