Last night was chaos. Complete and utter chaos. If you failed to produce a winning lineup due to the inordinate amount of values that came rolling in last-second, trust me, you’re not the only one. Roster construction seemed near impossible in those waining minutes.
More of the same could be in store tonight (even with only four games on the schedule), which makes this as good a time as any to remind you that our NBA News blurbs have returned (and are free!).
Now, on to the slate.
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-8)
Implied Total: 105.5 – 97.5, O/U: 202.5
On one hand, Jeff Teague has exceeded his expectations by 60% over the last 10 games and is slated to oppose the Knicks and their Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 points allowed to point guards. On the other, minutes are being handed out like it’s Halloween in Atlanta. Dennis Schroeder, for example, was Jeff Teague’s primary backup for the first 33 games of the season and has now succumb to consecutive DNP-CD. In his inexplicable absence, both Shelvin Mack and Lamar Patterson have received extended run (which includes leaving Teague with only 21 minutes in their previous contest against the Knicks). Only Kent Bazemore (exceeded expectations by an average of +4.36 points in December), Paul Millsap (averaging 49.5 DraftKings points in his last four games), and Al Horford (at least 30 minutes played in five straight) have yet to feel the wrath of Mike Budenholzer.
Aaron Afflalo remains in the Mount Rushmore of players that will either ship a tournament or leave you in tears by halftime. There is no greater example than his last seven performances at DraftKings: 14.2, 27.7, 14.7, 10.5, 22, 4.2, 48.5. Kristaps Porzingis’ recent production (or lack thereof) has recently caused him to garner similar comparisons as he has now failed to exceed the implied points of his salary in four of the last five games (and has a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.9).
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls (-8.5)
Implied Total: 105.3 – 96.8, O/U: 202.5
With Jared Bayless re-aggravating the ankle that caused him to miss 11 games in December, only Michael Carter-Williams, O.J. Mayo, and Rashad Vaughn are available to play point for Milwaukee tonight. Though Mayo has the highest rating among shooting guards in our Phan Model (the equivalent of our Cash Model fine-tuned by Justin Phan), Carter-Williams is tied with Rajon Rondo for the most Pro Trends at point guard. It remains to be seen who Jimmy Butler defends (a.k.a. essentially eliminates) tonight although we assume it to be Khris Middleton.
Speaking of Butler, Jimmy is likely to warrant even more exposure given his 40-point second half on Sunday (not a mistype). After the intermission, Butler managed to score 59% of the Bulls total points on the day. Only Kobe is rated higher at shooting guard in our Tournament Model (though Lou Williams would receive a rather large jump if Bryant is officially declared out).
The Bucks have allowed +2.3 points above expectations to opposing power forwards but even Fred Hoiberg is struggling to juggle a proper rotation between Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis. Simply put, when Mirotic has shot well, Hoiberg has been forced to leave him in the game. Still, Portis’ salary of $4,500 (or $3,900 on FanDuel) implies he’ll score at least 19.41 points, a total he’s achieved in four of his last six games.
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)
Implied Total: 109.8 – 104.3, O/U: 214
Slated with the highest total of the evening, our NBA News blurbs have returned just in time to manage the chaos that is every potential inactive between the Kings and Mavericks.
With Omri Casspi unable to play last night, Quincy Acy was labeled “starting” and mustered only five minutes of court time. Instead, minutes were split between Marco Belinelli (34), Darren Collison (30), and Kosta Koufos (29). Collison would be in line for the largest uptick as Rondo (doubtful) is the only point guard ahead of him. In the one game Rondo has missed this season, Collison played a team-high 41 minutes.
Deron Williams is questionable but has openly stated that he’s more than comfortable coming off the bench (something he’s done in the last two games). With Devin Harris probable to take the court at some point tonight, J.J. Barea is more likely to exceed his implied total of 17.05 points at FanDuel rather than the 24.93 points his $5,700 salary at DraftKings implies. Either way, Zaza Pachulia remains the highest-rated center in our Tournament Model as Dallas will be playing 4.5 possessions faster than their norm.
Golden State Warriors (-13) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 113.5 – 100.5, O/U: 213
As it stands right now, only Leandro Barbosa is officially inactive for the Warriors. It’s hard to lean in any particular direction as it’s expected that one, if not a few Golden State players are likely to rest (this being the second-leg of a back-to-back and all), but no matter: the Lakers have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to guards in tonight’s slate.
The obvious pivot without Stephen Curry would be to pin your exposure on Shaun Livingston, but keep an eye on Ian Clark. Clark has averaged only 7.5 minutes when Curry has played and 21.6 without him. A similar increase in production is noticeable from that Draymond Green-guy, as he’s averaged 5.1 additional DraftKings points without Curry in the lineup (exceeding his expectations by an average of +11.33 points over his last 10).
Finally, while awaiting word on Kobe Bryant, start fitting Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams into your lineups. D’Angelo Russell was sent home from shoot-around this morning and is more doubtful to play than anything. Due to the sheer minutes, our Tournament Model rates Clarkson higher than any other point guard in tonight’s slate. He’s easier accessible at DraftKings where he comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%. Shy away from Larry Nance being defended by Green and settle against a Warriors front court allowing a respectable (but not fearful) -0.2 points below expectations to opposing guards.
