Alright, let’s dive into Monday’s 10-game slate.
Timberwolves (-6.5) @ 76ers
Implied Total: 105.5 – 99.0, O/U: 204.5
Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns. Just do it.
Rubio is a guy that is usually more GPP than cash because of his inconsistency, but he’s been very solid lately (he’s hit value in eight of his last 10) and gets the 76ers. Towns is in a great spot as well – he had a rough night shooting the ball last game, but still got off 17 shots, which bodes well for his usage going forward. They’re both elite cash and tournament options. Wiggins and LaVine are okay for tournaments as well.
There aren’t any cash-game plays on the Philly side, as Ish Smith has been struggling and is priced up and Jahlil Okafor is barely getting minutes off the bench. Ish is a nice tournament play – his salary is still fine for the upside and his ownership could be decreased of his poor play. Nerlens Noel is a nice tournament option as well, although the matchup against KAT is a tough one. I’m not looking at any other 76er.
Raptors @ Cavs (-8)
Implied Total: 92.3 – 100.3, O/U: 192.5
Kyle Lowry has been great lately, but this matchup against the Cavs and on a slate with really good PG options (see, Rubio above), it’s hard to justify him in cash. However, he does still possess 50-point upside on a given night, so he’s okay in tournaments, although there are better options as stated above. DeRozan is in the same camp, although he’s much less safe and has struggled lately. The rest of the Raps aren’t getting enough minutes to be worth a look.
This is a tough matchup all around for both teams, so I feel similarly about the Cavs – LeBron James is always a tournament option because of his upside, but there are much better cash-game options around his high $9,500 price tag. I’m not really looking at other Cavs – they either don’t have enough safety (Kyrie), upside (Love), or both (Tristan).
Celtics (-7) @ Nets
Implied Total: 105.0 – 98.0, O/U: 203
Jarrett Jack is out for the season with a torn ACL – usually in this situation, it’s nice to target either the backup or the player going against the backup. However, I don’t think Jack’s absence changes a lot for the point guard situation in this game. Isaiah Thomas was a great play against Jack and remains a great play against likely starter Shane Larkin, in either contest format. Jae Crowder is fine in cash if you end up with him but no tourneys. Sullinger is a tourney option if you want to play that roulette game, and a couple darts of Turner is probably warranted. Marcus Smart, too.
As said above, Larkin will likely get the start at PG for Jack, but there really isn’t enough safety here (both in skill set and matchup) to warrant cash-game consideration and really not enough upside here. I’d prefer him in tournaments, but I’d really prefer a fade. Brook Lopez is the play here – he’s been a monster lately, and although the matchup might say GPP only for you (I’m personally okay with Brook in cash), definitely have some exposure in tourneys. Thad is an average tournament play, no cash.
Pacers @ Heat (-2.5)
Implied Total: 95.3 – 97.8, O/U: 193
I have some rules that I live by in NBA DFS and one of them has been “don’t play players against the Spurs” this year. The Heat have moved into that realm as well. I’m fine with Paul George in tournaments – it looks like he’s finally getting out of his extended shooting slump – but that’s it. Fade against the Heat.
Chris Bosh has been really consistent lately, hitting value in seven of his last eight contests. His $7,500 salary puts him at an implied total of 33.2 – I think he’s probably fairly priced and is fine in cash, although not the best play on this large slate. Whiteside is always a tournament option and especially against a not-great Pacers frontcourt. Wade and Dragic have been elite defensively lately, but average offensively. You could look at Tyler Johnson if you want to get cute in tournaments at $3,700, but that’s about it for the Heat.
Magic @ Pistons (-4)
Implied Total: 96.8 – 100.8, O/U: 197.5
Elfrid Payton is questionable for tonight, but honestly the Magic aren’t really interested at any position right now. They have been awful lately – all of their guys got shut down last game against the Cavs, and while this matchup is easier than Cleveland’s elite defense, it’s still not great. Reggie Jackson will play and the matchup against Andre Drummond isn’t a great one for Vucevic. You can have some exposure to Vuc, Tobias Harris and Fournier/Oladipo (if Payton is out), but don’t go overboard.
Andre Drummond is a fine play tonight, but with other centers cheaper (KAT, Brook, and Marc Gasol, for example) and in better spots, I don’t think he’s a great cash option. However, he has 20-20 potential on any night so have tourney exposure. I’m off Reggie Jackson right now, as Brandon Jennings’ return has cut into his minutes and upside. I really like Caldwell-Pope in tournaments, as he continues to play monstrous minutes and can get hot.
Spurs (-10) @ Bucks
Implied Total: 101.0 – 91.0, O/U: 192
Spurs matchups are always pretty simple to breakdown, so I’ll keep it short. I don’t think anyone in this game is cash-worthy, with the exception of possibly Patty Mills since Tony Parker is out tonight. Kawhi, Aldridge, (as usual) and Manu (because of Parker) are nice tournament plays, and that’s about it.
As said above, don’t play players against the Spurs (or Heat).
Kings @ Thunder (-7.5)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 111.3, O/U: 215
Kevin Durant is out tonight, which obviously changes the whole complexion of not only this particular game, but the entire slate. DeMarcus Cousins is always in play in tournaments, and even though his $10,100 price tag is high for this matchup, the PF spot is so brutal on DraftKings that I don’t mind him in cash. Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, and Omri Casspi are all nice tournament plays, though I’d favor the latter two because of their prices and better matchup with Durant out.
This is obvious if you payed attention to basketball at all last year, but play Russell Westbrook when Kevin Durant is out. I don’t mind Serge Ibaka in cash or tournaments as, again, the PF spot is bad and he should see a usage bump with Durant out. But really, Westbrook and some more Westbrook.
Rockets (-2.5) @ Jazz
Implied Total: 101.0 – 98.5, O/U: 199.5
This line and implied totals isn’t great, but I do think there’s some fantasy potential on the Houston side. James Harden will likely be underowned tonight because of Westbrook and other high-end options, but this is a good spot for him if Derrick Favors is indeed ruled out – he missed shootaround this morning. Dwight Howard is seeing solid minutes and is a great play as well if Favors is out, as the Jazz would have essentially zero rim protection. I’m fine with Capela as a tourney option, but don’t love any other Rocket.
If Favors is out, this is a good spot to target Gordon Hayward, as he would see large minutes and usage. The Rockets have been atrocious against SFs this year – they have easily the worst Opponent Plus/Minus in the NBA, so definitely have Hayward exposure in tournaments, although I do think he carries some risk in cash. Other than that, I don’t think there’s a lot here for the Jazz other than some Jeff Withey and Rodney Hood (especially) tournament exposure, as they’ve both played really well lately.
Grizzlies (-2) @ Trail Blazers
Implied Total: 97.5 – 95.5, O/U: 193
Raise your hand if you got burned with the Damian Lillard news last night. It seemed like he was on track to play, but ended up being a late scratch. Obviously his availability changes the complexion of this game for all players. Marc Gasol is a nice play in all contest formats, but that’s about it for the Grizzlies, even against a team we usually like to target in fantasy. Mike Conley is questionable for tonight, and if he was unable to go, Mario Chalmers becomes a really nice play at only $4,000 in the spot start.
If Damian Lillard plays, he’s fine in tournaments but not in cash games. That would knock McCollum to a solid fade – he’s overpriced if Lillard is in and this matchup against the Memphis defense is a tough one. If Lillard is out, McCollum is interesting in tournaments but the matchup is probably too tough for cash on a 10-game slate. No other Blazer is really in play for me.
Hornets @ Warriors (-9)
Implied Total: 99.5 – 108.5, O/U: 208
The game of injuries is the last one we’ll cover. Nic Batum is out, Steph Curry is questionable, Jeremy Lin is questionable, Harrison Barnes is now probable, Festus Ezeli is doubtful, Brandon Rush is probable, Spencer Hawes has moved up to probable, and Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are both out. Okay, deep breath after that.
No player for the Hornets is cash-worthy on the road against the Warriors’ defense. However, Kemba Walker is really intriguing, as he’s been playing really well lately, will get all of the usage he wants, and will likely be underowned because of the matchup. I’m not really interested in any other Hornet, but I do like Kemba a lot tonight in tourneys.
This is a nice spot for the Warriors, even though the line isn’t as high as some of their other games. Batum being out really hurts the Hornets defense, which makes Klay Thompson playable regardless of Steph’s availability. Steph himself is always in play and is an awesome tournament play, as his price tag will make him crazy underowned, as he sits right next to Westbrook. Draymond Green DrayMagic is $9,900. Do your thing.
Good luck!
