Nine-game slate is up — I know we’ve been off audio/video podcasts lately, but they’ll be back very soon. Thank you for your patience and I hope you’ve been successful in the meantime with the written breakdowns.
Let’s jump into tonight’s slate…
Hornets @ Magic (-5)
Implied Total: 94.8 – 99.8, O/U: 194.5
The big news for the Hornets tonight is that they’ll be without Nicolas Batum, which will likely mean that Jeremy Lin will fill in. For a lot of players, getting a spot start usually means auto-cash, but Lin is a guy that feasts on second units. Playing against the harder starters — or even if he got some second-unit run against Oladipo (who is playing tonight) isn’t a great spot for Lin. His price and minutes upside screams tournament, but I’m fine with being one of the few in the industry to be lukewarm on him in cash games tonight. Kemba Walker is the other Hornet you want and only in tournaments as well due to his recent inconsistencies and low Vegas line.
Elfrid Payton would be in a really nice spot for both contest formats if Dipo was going to be out again, but alas, his presence makes them both tournament plays. The Magic aren’t projected to score a whole lot either — which makes it tough to target this game in cash — but Vucevic and especially Tobias Harris (with Batum out) make for very intriguing and probably low-owned tourney options. Fournier’s minutes have been way up, and even though his ceiling hasn’t been high, he’s worth tournament exposure. Aaron Gordon to a lesser extent, as well.
Bulls @ Celtics (-4)
Implied Total: 101.8 – 105.8, O/U: 207.5
Jimmy Butler is probable and is a stud, so feel free to use him, although the Avery Bradley or Jae Crowder matchup probably leans him towards tournaments. The other guys we’re interested in for Chicago is the frontcourt, which is really hard to predict right now. The main guy who got a bump with Joakim Noah out in their first game was Taj Gibson, while Pau Gasol kept his the same and Mirotic and Portis didn’t see a bump. Portis saw a bit of one in the last game, but most of it was garbage time against the Warriors. Pau continues to be a good play — he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot tonight — and Taj is the guy in cash. In tournaments, I’d rank them Taj > Pau > Portis > Mirotic.
Isaiah Thomas has been a bit up and down lately, but has put in three solid games in a row, is probably underpriced at $7,800, and gets a very nice matchup against Derrick Rose and one less rim protector with Noah out. Jae Crowder continues to be so consistent, although I understand the Butler matchup concern. Bradley is pretty sneaky in tournaments, as his matchup looks tough against Jimmy, although I think Butler will likely play a bit more against Jae instead. Olynyk has been very good the last two games but the minutes between him and Amir Johnson have been all over the place — they’re fringe tournament options.
Clippers (-1.5) @ Knicks
Implied Total: 104.3 – 102.8, O/U: 207
First off, the Clips are only 1.5-point favorites against the Knicks. That deserves its own sentence. On the Clips side, Chris Paul is easy cash right now — he’s carrying the entire LA burden and is crushing on a nightly basis. He might be the hottest fantasy player at the moment. This is a pretty tough matchup other than Paul, so I think exposure is warranted for DeAndre Jordan in tournaments, but limit it for the other guys a little more — Redick and Crawford, mostly. They traded Josh Smith today, but that doesn’t really move the needle for anyone.
This line is pretty interesting and that plus the matchup against the Clips’ awful SFs makes Carmelo a pretty easy cash-game play, especially at his $8,300 DK pricetag. Porzingis versus Jordan will be fun, but Kristaps’ minutes are too volatile to trust in cash, although it’s nice to target in tournaments. RoLo (Robin Lopez) is always a super-sneaky tournament play and I really like that call tonight as well. The rest of the Knicks — especially Afflalo and DWilliams — are only really intriguing if Melo or Porzingis are out.
Jazz (-5.5) @ Nets
Implied Total: 97 – 91.5, O/U: 188.5
These next two games are brutal in terms of fantasy expectations tonight. Look at those totals — ouch. In these awful lines, I try to look for players whose fantasy value isn’t affected by low totals, or even enhanced by them. Rudy Gobert fits that perfectly — if he wreaks havoc defensively and gets a bunch of blocks, that will likely be reflected in the line. As such, don’t be scared off a guy like him because of low totals. He’s fine in cash or tournaments. Derrick Favors is constantly questionable. Gordon Hayward is a nice tournament play because of his ridiculously high minutes and nice matchup. Finally, get some Hood exposure — he was over 40 minutes last game and has a really high ceiling if that happens again.
The only guys we’re really concerned with ever for Brooklyn is Brook Lopez, Thad Young, and perhaps Donald Sloan. The Lopez-Gobert matchup is about as bad as it gets, and that more-or-less extends to Thad as well. Lyles is quick enough to matchup against him and Gobert patrols the paint anyway. Sloan doesn’t really have a high floor or ceiling and with the low total, I think this side is a stay-away. Have some Thad if you must in tournaments.
Heat @ Raptors (-11)
Implied Total: 88.5 – 99.5, O/U: 187
Here’s the other brutal game that I kind of just want to ignore on the slate. However, literally everyone is out for Miami, so there is some value here despite the bad matchup and bad line. Bosh is great in cash — he’s the only starter that will suit up tonight and will get a ton of minutes and usage. The other guys you want exposure to because of the injuries are Tyler Johnson (tournaments), Josh Richardson (same but maybe cash if you’re in a bind), Amar’e Stoudemire (same as Richardson), and Winslow (eh in both contests). This is a good spot to takes some risk other than Bosh and hope a guy goes off for a very cheap price.
On the flip side, the Raptors have a great matchup because of the Heat’s injured players, but this game could also get out of hand early. As such, I’m still okay with Lowry, DeRozan, and Valanciunas in cash games, but I can understand if you’re more hesistant. In any instance, definitely target those three heavily in tournaments, and I would target them in that order. Scola and Ross could be really sneaky tournament plays as well.
Bucks @ Rockets (-3)
Implied Total: 102.5 – 105.5, O/U: 208
James Harden is expensive as usual tonight, but is pretty easy in cash and tournaments, as he gets the bad Bucks defense at home. He put 80.3 DK points in a tougher matchup (KCP for Detroit) just two nights ago. Dwight Howard is out tonight, which bumps up both Clint Capela (good in both contest formats) and Terrence Jones (only tournaments). Beverley is also out, which means the very volatile Ty Lawson could see big minutes and at only $4,200 is a nice tournament option if you’re okay with the risk.
Greg Monroe is in a nice spot here with rim protector Dwight Howard out (although Capela is pretty good too). He does have some minutes risk — as do all Bucks not named Khris Middleton — so perhaps lean more tourney than cash, although I’m fine with both. Speaking of Middleton, he’s an elite play in both contest formats. Same with Giannis. Jabari and MCW are very meh tournament options, but I don’t mind them because of their probable low ownership.
Thunder (-5.5) @ Mavericks
Implied Total: 106.3 – 100.8, O/U: 207
Dirk is a game-time decision tonight, which will definitely affect this line — currently a pretty close 5.5-point spread. Westbrook might rival Chris Paul for the hottest player in fantasy right now and will likely continue that tonight. Fit him in as much as you can. Durant is cheaper, and thus probably a slightly better value, and you should definitely have a ton of exposure to him as well. Play them separately, play them together, play them however you have to. That’s it for me for the Thunder.
Zaza’s minutes have been safe and that will be the case regardless of Dirk’s status. He’s probably not playable tonight, however — his floor in this matchup is too low for cash and he never has a high ceiling. Parsons has looked excellent lately, and even though this matchup against Durant is brutal, he’s worth a look in tournaments because of his very high usage without Dirk. Wes Matthews’ minutes have been sky high and is a tourney option as a result, and if you can guess minutes between Charlie V, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Powell, you’re a better player than I.
Pacers @ Warriors (-12.5)
Implied Total: 101.8 – 114.3, O/U: 216
Considering this matchup has the highest implied total of the evening, exposure at the top would obviously help (though a blowout is certainly in play). As it stands, Stephen Curry has a Rating of 87.77 in our Phan Model, highest of anyone in tonight’s player pool. He’s exceeded expectations by an average of +10.47 points over the last two games despite Golden State’s point differential of +65. I worry more about not rostering him (especially with a Projected Plus/Minus of +9.6) than if he were to sit the entire fourth quarter.
Myles Turner has a Projected Plus/Minus of +8, highest among centers. In the last two games alone, he’s exceeded expectations by an average of +20.98 points while seeing an increased usage of 21.2 (up from 18.8 when Mahinmi has been active). Once again, there’s fear for his playing time if the score were to get out of hand, but his 1.17 DraftKings points per minute without Mahinmi would assume he can produce in limited time.
Spurs (-16) @ Lakers
Implied Total: 107 – 91, O/U: 198
It’s another night in which the Spurs are favored by 16 points. Though it might be considered point-chasing, it’s actually another terrific matchup for Boban Marjanovic to flourish. Despite his projected floor of 0.7 points, the Lakers have allowed a whopping +3 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers. He likely won’t see another 21 minutes with Tim Duncan starting tonight, but his implied total of 13.43 points remains more than achievable.
San Antonio is exploitable at the point (where they hold an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3), but most of us here at Fantasy Labs have been more than comfortable living by the “Don’t play anyone against the Spurs” mantra. If anything, Brandon Bass, who scored 35.25 DraftKings points on 29.6 minutes in their last blowout to the Kings, could receive extended run as long as Larry Nance (questionable) is sidelined. But, you know, he’s playing the Spurs.
