Tonight’s slate is a nine-game slate that has a heavier load of non-conference games than normal, which is just a quirk of NBA scheduling during the holidays. It does make things a bit interesting, as we have less data with non-conference games since they just play each other less frequently. It’s much easier to predict how Charlotte will fare against Miami than Houston, for example, as they play the former many times per year.
Anyway, I’ll probably go really long here, so let’s jump right in.
Sacramento @ Washington, 7pm (all times EST)
O/U: 217.0, Spread: Washington -2.5
Analysis: One other interesting quirk of tonight’s slate – five of the nine games have one team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back while the other team is rested. Here’s a quick chart if seeing this information visually helps you.
It’s weird to say that a $10,000 player is a value, but that’s exactly what DeMarcus Cousins is right now – that salary on DraftKings puts him at an implied point total of 44.7, a mark he’s exceeded in his last five games. He currently has one of the higher Projected Plus/Minus’s of the slate (as always, keep monitoring throughout the day), which is darn impressive at his high salary. Other than Boogie, the usual suspects are all really good plays yet again – Rajon Rondo continues to kill value (he’s had double-digit assists in the last six games), Rudy Gay is an elite tournament play in this matchup, and Omri Casspi continues to get huge minutes, putting him yet again on cash radars.
John Wall is an elite play tonight as well, as his $9,500 DraftKings salary puts him at implied point total of 42.4, a mark he’s been way above lately. He has averaged 50.5 DK points in his last 10 games, and that includes a 21-point dud against the Grizzlies last week. In this high-total game, he’s a no-brainer in any contest format. Marcin Gortat is racking up huge minutes lately (38 and 40 in the last two) and has been hitting value. He’s been an easy mid-priced C option in cash for a month now. Garrett Temple exploded in his first start Saturday and is a really nice value at his $4,000 price if he starts again, and Kelly Oubre is somewhat intriguing as a tournament punt option if he starts again for Otto Porter.
Minnesota @ Boston, 7:30pm
O/U: 207.0, Spread: Boston -8
Analysis: Ricky Rubio has always been an elite assists/steals guy and he’s racking them up at a crazy rate right now – he’s averaging 4.7 steals per game over the last three. Boston has a good defense so going Rubio in cash is probably too risky, but he remains an elite tournament option. The rest of the Wolves aren’t cash-game plays, but are decent in tourneys – Wiggins is really the only player getting solid, consistent minutes right now so he’s a good tourney play. Towns is getting below 30 minutes for some dumb reason, although he can blow up a stat line in just 28 minutes, so I would have some exposure. Dieng might be the most interesting tourney option, as Mitchell has given him a ton of run recently. LaVine and Kevin Martin are fine, but at their low minute totals against this tough defense, I’d limit exposure.
Isaiah Thomas has been hot lately and going against a team that hemorrhages both real and fantasy points, he’s a great play in both contest formats. His implied point total is 34.1 on DraftKings – that seems pretty easy tonight. The rest of the Celtics are intriguing tournament plays because of the matchup, but Brad Stevens keeps minutes too low for players (other than Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder) to be worth a big look in cash on a nine-game slate. Amir Johnson is questionable, and while David Lee seems like the bet to get the spot start, I am little worried about Stevens actually mixing it up with bigger minutes to Jonas Jerebko instead, as he’s publicly said recently that he wants to shake lineups up a bit. Monitor news tonight – I’d be interested in tournaments for whoever got the start, but I doubt a start would equal huge minutes, so still no cash.
Orlando @ New York, 7:30pm
O/U: 197.5, Spread: New York -3
Analysis: This spread is a bit closer than I expected, but could make the game more interesting than the low total suggests. The only player on Orlando’s side that is possibly cash-game worthy is Elfrid Payton, one of the few Magic players to see consistent minutes and do something with them – other than a 17-point dud against the Cavs (it happens to everyone), he’s been at 30-plus fantasy points in each of the last 10 and his implied point total is 27.7. Nikola Vucevic would be a cash play in a different, easier matchup, but he’s still a good tournament option, as he’s coming off two nice double-doubles and he’s back in Scott Skiles good, 30-plus minute graces. For now. Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo are tournament options, but they’re lower on my radar tonight because of the tough matchup.
I like the Knicks in fantasy this year – they’re easy, as we’re only concerned about three players on a nightly basis. Carmelo Anthony is an elite tournament play and is fine in cash, although I’d prefer the savings on Batum and Hayward if you want to pay up for SF. Kristaps Porzingis has come back to Earth the last month but is in a nice spot with this matchup so target him in some tournaments. Lastly, Arron Afflalo is a fine, yet fringe-y tournament play.
Brooklyn @ Chicago, 8pm
O/U: 197.0, Spread: Chicago -10.5
Analysis: Man, the Nets are bad. They lost easily to the Minnesota Timberwolves – not exactly a juggernaut – yesterday and get a road back-to-back against the Bulls tonight. Brook Lopez is the most interesting play, as the Bulls have actually been pretty bad against big men this year, especially on the boards. However, that has been reversing a bit lately with the resurgence of Joakim Noah. I’m fading the Nets here in cash – they’re very inconsistent anyway and their starters played a heavy minute load last night. Jack, Young, and Lopez are all fine in tournaments but I wouldn’t go too hard with exposure. Bojan Bogdanovic has been getting a lot of minutes lately, but the upside isn’t really there.
Pau Gasol will be back tonight after resting in their last game – the Bulls gave him the night off after that four-overtime slugfest against the Pistons. He’s only $7,600 on DraftKings in a great matchup, so roll him out in cash or tournaments. Jimmy Butler is also in play in both contest formats tonight, Derrick Rose is an okay tournament option if you must, and Joakim Noah remains a great tournament option even at his higher salary of $5,400 on DraftKings. That price takes him out of cash for me, but the implied point total of 23.6 is one he can blow by in tournaments potentially. Also, throw in a tourney lineup to support the #FreeBobbyPortis campaign. Thanks in advance.
Charlotte @ Houston, 8pm
O/U: 208.5, Spread: Houston -3
Analysis: Nicolas Batum was supposedly going to be on a minutes restriction in the last game, but ended up playing 32 minutes and put up 40 DraftKings points. He’s back in cash-game territory and has one of the better matchups on the slate among higher-priced SFs. Kemba Walker is on the tournament side for me, mostly because of his troubles shooting the ball lately. His minutes are so high though – he’s been at 41 and 44 the last two – that if his shot starts dropping, he’s going to crush value. I’m off Cody Zeller and Jeremy Lamb tonight, mostly because of their upsides. Jeremy Lin is a thing again the last two games and I have no problem riding the hot hand, as it seems Steve Clifford will continue to give him heavy minutes. He’s a nice, albeit risky tournament option at $5,200.
I’m off James Harden in cash tonight – the Hornets have one of the best defenses in the league (yes, that’s true), making it too risky to pay $10,600 for him. He’s always in play in tournaments regardless of matchup, though. Dwight has been back over 40 DK points the last two and has a fairly decent matchup here – although the Hornets are good on the whole, they’re obviously a little outmatched in their frontcourt to Dwight. He’s tourney only though because of his low usage rate. I don’t love Trevor Ariza tonight, as a potential matchup against Batum (although Batum could get the Harden coverage) is a negative and he doesn’t have upside in tournaments. Clint Capela has upside but not enough minutes, while Patrick Beverley has minutes but not upside.
Portland @ Atlanta, 8pm
O/U: 197.0, Spread: Atlanta -11
Analysis: Portland will be without both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum tonight, which obviously shakes up the entire slate. If I had to guess how this will end up – Tim Frazier will likely get the start at PG, Gerald Henderson will likely get the start at SG, and Allen Crabbe will see a nice bump off the bench. However, Crabbe could start with Hendo off the bench. Either way, all three will see a big increase in role and honestly all three are cash playable because of their prices and likely minutes. This also bumps the other guys (Aminu and Plumlee mostly) so I don’t mind them in cash, although the bump is smaller because they have a limit on their usage because of the types of players they are. If I had to rank them in terms of cash, it’d go Frazier > Crabbe > Henderson. In tourneys, I’d go Crabbe > Hendo > Frazier.
I’m not sure this bumps up Atlanta a whole lot for me, mostly because I don’t think it will affect Portland’s defense that much. We all know Lillard is a bad defender and while McCollum is good, Hendo is just as stout and will fall right in. If anything, it makes me worried that Atlanta could blow them out – don’t think that means more points for Atlanta than normal, rather than just less points for Portland. You should obviously have some exposure to Millsap, Teague, Horford, and Bazemore in tournaments, but I probably wouldn’t go anyone other than Millsap in cash because of the risk.
Indiana @ San Antonio, 8:30pm
O/U: 199.0, Spread: San Antonio -9
Analysis: Monta Ellis will play tonight, but I’ll keep this short. I’ve said on the podcast many times that I just simply don’t play any players in cash that are going against the Spurs. That hasn’t changed nor will it soon. I’m fine with going Paul George in tournaments – it’s obviously an awful matchup against Kawhi Leonard, but PG is a monster himself. Other than that, fade the Pacers.
On the other side, Kawhi has a tough matchup himself going against Paul George on the other end of the court, taking him out of cash for me. I’ll treat Kawhi and PG pretty similarly tonight. The other Spurs I’m looking at are Aldridge and Duncan, both of who I love in tournaments. If you think that Kawhi and PG will cancel each other out a bit (I do), this is a good spot to target potentially what could be a little more usage and attention for Aldridge. He’s borderline cash too.
Phoenix @ Utah, 9pm
O/U: 198.0, Spread: Utah -4.5
Analysis: This is a pace-down game for Phoenix and it’s significant enough that I’m off the Suns in cash. The reason this is a big deal is because sites don’t price players for matchups – Eric Bledsoe’s $8,400 salary is the same as it’s been in any matchup, whether the total was 220 or under 200, like the one tonight. As such, guys like Bledsoe and Knight are probably a little bit underpriced in high total games, but definitely overpriced in low total games. For that reason, no Suns in cash. However, both Bledsoe and Knight have such high ceilings that you have to get tournament exposure, even in a tough matchup. I’m fading the frontcourt entirely tonight.
Other than the game against the Spurs (no one escapes Kawhi), Gordon Hayward has been very consistent since Rudy Gobert has been out. His price probably puts him out of cash territory – the discount from Batum to him is only $300 which isn’t enough for me – but I do think there is a lot of upside in this matchup. If you take out Favors’ last game – a weird 19-point dud against the Nuggets – I would be fine with him in cash. Unfortunately, that game worries me enough to look elsewhere. But same with Hayward, I love him in tournaments. Alec Burks and Rodney Hood are in the same spot as always – choose one in a tournament and maybe they’ll go off. Unfortunately, those aren’t frequent occurences.
Oklahoma City @ LA Clippers, 10:30pm
O/U: 207.5, Spread: Oklahoma City -2
Analysis: Of the two Thunder stars, I’m more on Kevin Durant than Russell Westbrook tonight. The reason is matchup – the Clippers are obviously star-studded as well, but their weak link (and it’s really weak) is at SF, the position that Durant plays. Russell Westbrook obviously has as much upside as anyone on a nightly basis, regardless of matchup, but that is important and Durant’s is amazing tonight, whereas Westbrook’s is a slight negative. Ibaka is the only other guy I’d look at and only in limited tournament exposure – his focus will be primarily on defense, limiting his upside.
Blake Griffin obviously has a really tough matchup tonight against Serge Ibaka, one of the better defenders at the four in the league, but I’m less worried about that after seeing Blake hold his own against the Spurs the other night. I’m not saying he’s a sure-fire cash option, but I do think he has a really safe floor and really high ceiling, regardless of matchup. Chris Paul is still so oddly underpriced and even though Westbrook is a tough matchup, $8,100 on DK is laughably low for him. Some tournament exposure for DeAndre Jordan is fine, but like Ibaka, I’m worried about the upside in this matchup.
Good luck tonight!
