I apologize for the lack of podcast/video for tonight’s slate, but I hope this article will suffice. I’m going to break it down similarly to how we do it on the pod, going game-by-game through the slate. First, let’s look broadly at the slate and the Vegas lines. Of note, most games have a low total – obviously three of the four later games are fairly high, but overall, no game truly stands out as the one to focus on in cash.
Okay, let’s get into the games.
Toronto @ Indiana, 7pm
O/U: 202, Spread: Indiana -5.5
Analysis: The Raptors are on the second leg of a back-to-back, although I’m generally not worried about that too much when the first part of it was vs the 76ers, like Toronto’s game yesterday. DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas remain out, which have opened some possible value plays in Terrence Ross and Bismack Biyombo, but neither have put up amazing numbers even with the increased minutes. Ross played 29 minutes versus Philadelphia Sunday and finished with 9.25 DraftKings points – he’s worth a flier in tournaments (he does have a 50-point game in his career, after all) but neither he nor Biyombo are consistent enough to trust in cash, even at their nice price points.
Kyle Lowry remains at that $8,900 level on DraftKings – an implied level of 39.65 DK points – which is lower than he’s been in his last three games. Indy has been solid defending PGs, and while Lowry can certainly rise above good defenses (see, 67.75 DK points vs the Warriors a couple weeks ago), he’s been a little lower than expected lately. He’s not a terrible cash-game play – he’s certainly not going to tank your lineups with a sub-30 point outing, but 40 isn’t guaranteed tonight, which is what you want at that level. However, Cory Joseph continues to be a solid play and has been getting very consistent minutes. Lastly, DeRozan has been hot lately, but the matchup – with Carroll out, Toronto could go small with their dual-PG lineup – potentially puts Paul George on him, which is obviously a negative.
This is a really good spot to target Paul George, especially in tournaments. He’s coming off a bad game – he only put up 25 DK points in 34 minutes against Detroit, although it was the second leg of a tough back-to-back. He’s certainly expensive at $9,900 on DK, but with Carroll out, this matchup is a lot better for him and he obviously has as much upside as any player in the slate. The rest of the Pacers are all tournament plays – they have upside in this offense, but Vogel has shown that he’s not afraid to mix up lineups, making it a little hard to predict minutes. For example, he started CJ Miles over Lavoy Allen last game to play smaller, but then ended up playing Miles only 24 minutes. Again, upside here, but don’t get cute in cash games.
LA Clippers @ Detroit, 7:30pm
O/U: 202.5, Spread: LAC -1.5
Analysis: The line on this game is pretty interesting – I personally would’ve been surprised if I had seen this line prior to the season. For the Clippers, we should look at the usual suspects: Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Griffin is the best cash play in that group, as his fair $9,100 price tag on DK puts him at an implied total of 40.57 – he’s been right near that in each of the last five games, and while the DvP says this is a tough matchup, I haven’t been too impressed by Marcus Morris or Ersan Ilyasova’s play lately. CP3 and Jordan are good plays in this matchup – CP3 has shown his upside more recently, but is still up-and-down enough to question in cash; Jordan is close to cash level at that price point, but I always get a little worried about playing centers in cash vs Andre Drummond because he can put them in foul trouble.
Andre Drummond is a fine cash-game play, although he is much more expensive than any other center on the slate – his $9,300 price tag is $1,400 more than the next highest-priced player in Pau Gasol. Doc Rivers believes in DeAndre Jordan as an elite defender, but the data hasn’t supported that and Drummond should be fine in this matchup. Reggie Jackson is also in play in both cash and tournaments here at $7,200, which is an implied total of 31.83. He’s been easily over that in his last 10 games, save for a tough outing against Charlotte when the Pistons got blown out. Ilyasova is the only other Piston playing well right now, but this matchup against Blake is tough. Fade except in a tourney lineup or two.
Orlando @ Brooklyn, 7:30pm
O/U: 198, Spread: Orlando -2.5
Analysis: Tobias Harris will start Monday after suffering a leg injury in his last game. You should probably have some exposure to a bunch of Magic players – this obviously isn’t the highest total of the slate, but they’ve been all playing so well lately except for their last game against the Cavs, which is understandable. Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton are cash-game options and definitely great tournament plays, while Victor Oladipo and Harris are more tournament plays tonight. However, they all have upside against a Nets team that doesn’t defend well from really any position.
On the flip side, Brook Lopez is in cash territory and has been really solid lately except for a poor outing against the 76ers last week. His salary of $7,400 puts him at an implied total of 32.75, a mark he’s been right at or above in the last 10 games minus that one dud mentioned above. There are better options at center probably (really, DraftKings has just been soft in their C pricing all year so there’s always value), but Lopez is fine, especially if you want to go double-C. I’ve played Thad Young a lot this year and that will likely continue tonight. Like Lopez, he’s not the best cash play on the board, but he has a solid enough floor and ceiling that I’m always fine if he ends up in my lineup. Jarrett Jack is a good tournament option, Joe Johnson is an okay one, and Bojan Bogdanovic is now too expensive for me.
Miami @ Atlanta, 8pm
O/U: 191.5, Spread: Atlanta -6
Analysis: There are only three Miami guys we’re interested in here: Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Hassan Whiteside. Goran Dragic was a thing again for a couple games and Luol Deng was good in his last game, but they aren’t consistent and don’t have enough upside to worry about. Bosh has been the most consistent of the group, although is price point ($7,200, so an implied 31.83) doesn’t give much value. I like Wade a lot in tournaments – he was playing really well until the last three games, all of which were very tough matchups. This one is a bit easier and he could be a bit underowned. Whiteside has been bad lately, but we know his upside and can’t completely fade him from tournaments.
The Hawks are one of the most frustrating fantasy teams this year. I love Millsap obviously, and I never mind playing him, although this matchup against Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside isn’t a great one. But the other players – Jeff Teague, Al Horford, Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, Kyle Korver, etc… — I can never pick correctly. Teague and Horford, and maybe even Bazemore, have some upside, but I wouldn’t go there in cash, especially against this Miami defense.
Philadelphia @ Chicago, 8pm
O/U: 194, Spread: Chicago -13
Analysis: Quick injury news at the time I’m writing this: Nerlens Noel and Kendall Marshall are out, and Tony Wroten is in. The 76ers are coming off a back-to-back and while this line is concerning, just about every Philly line is concerning this year. The matchup is enough to fade Robert Covington in cash games (although I’d still have exposure in tournaments because of his elite steals upside), but I’m perfectly fine with Jahlil Okafor in all contest formats. It’s obviously not the best matchup on the board, but Okafor without Nerlens has seen high usage and is playing really well right now – he had 45 DK points yesterday against an equally tough Toronto team.
Pau Gasol is an elite play tonight against Philly, and especially without Nerlens Noel to protect the rim, but there’s always a blowout risk against the 76ers, as shown by the large spread. If that worries you, get your exposure to these good plays in tournaments – Pau especially, but also Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah. Derrick Rose and Nikola Mirotic are okay tournament plays I guess, but they’ve been so bad this year that I don’t even really trust their upside even in such an ideal matchup as tonight. Don’t fade completely, but I wouldn’t break your bank getting exposure with those guys. Definitely Pau and Jimmy, though.
Washington @ Memphis, 8pm
O/U: 200, Spread: Memphis -4
Analysis: John Wall was not a beast. John Wall is now a beast. John Wall is now expensive on DraftKings, but he’s still a beast. Play him, even at this high price point and even against a good defensive team. Gortat continues to be cheap at center, despite his great play – he is one of the best values of the slate and I’m perfectly fine with him in cash, despite the tough matchup (which actually I don’t think will be as tough tonight for a reason I’ll get to in one second…). Otto Porter has been playing great lately and is still fine at his $6,200 price point, although I’d go more tournament than cash because of the matchup. You could get cute with Jared Dudley, Gary Neal, Garrett Temple, or Ramon Sessions, but I wouldn’t in this matchup.
The Grizzlies’ coaching staff is apparently on the hot seat, and they’re trying to mix things up a bit by going small in their last game and will reportedly do the same tonight. Matt Barnes saw the biggest increase in value as a result of this move last game, posting 42.75 DK points in 37 minutes. At only $4,300 you have to have significant tournament exposure to him. I wouldn’t go as crazy with Jeff Green, but he has similar upside and is only $4,600. Marc Gasol is a fine tournament play, and I’m fading Mike Conley and Zach Randolph here.
Phoenix @ Dallas, 8:30pm
O/U: 209, Spread: Dallas -4.5
Analysis: Tyson Chandler returned to action in the Suns last game, and it surprisingly didn’t tank the value of Jon Leuer or Alex Len. With Markieff Morris likely getting another DNP-CD, I think you can look at Leuer again, even in cash – his salary of $5,900 puts him at an implied total of 25.85, which is almost exactly where he’s been the last five games. Len and Chandler are tournament-only plays, and possibly not even that because they will likely vulture each other’s upside. Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight are great cash plays – I wouldn’t go both in cash, but I’m fine with it in tournaments (I actually really like the strategy because most people choose one or the other instead of both).
Deron Williams will be back for the Mavs tonight and should fall right back into cash-game territory. If you look at his game logs, you’ll be amazed by how consistent the dude has been this year. I don’t love the matchup against two good defenders in Bledsoe and Knight, but that hasn’t particularly affected Williams’ value this year. Dirk is a fine cash play, and I’d lean more cash than tournament. Zaza Pachulia, Wesley Matthews, and Raymond Felton are all intriguing tournament plays, but a bit risky outside of possibly Zaza in cash. The high total and spread suggests having exposure to the Mavs, certainly.
Utah @ San Antonio, 8:30pm
O/U: 185.5, Spread: San Antonio -12.5
Analysis: Wow, this total is crazy low. It makes sense because of how good these two teams are defensively, but it obviously doesn’t make things very interesting fantasy-wise. Utah is a complete team-fade for me in cash games, and while you could possibly have some exposure in tournaments to Gordon Hayward (playing really well lately), Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, or Rodney Hood (good luck picking between those two correctly), I would certainly limit it to only a couple of lineups. The Spurs are that good defensively this year.
Kawhi Leonard is just about matchup proof for me this year – Gordon Hayward is an excellent defender, but Kawhi can fill up the box score from so many places that his floor is so safe. At only $8,600 on DraftKings, he’s certainly in play tonight, as he usually is. However, the rest of the Spurs are kind of like the Jazz – this matchup is a tough one (as indicated by the line), even without Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint, and the Spurs spread out production too much outside of Kawhi to warrant a whole lot of exposure in this matchup. I know it’s boring, but it’s kind of Kawhi or nothing in this game.
Houston @ Denver, 9pm
O/U: 209.5, Spread: Houston -4.5
Analysis: Clint Capela is questionable for tonight, and if he isn’t able to go it would bump up Dwight Howard, and potentially either Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, who played a season-high 15 minutes last game. The issue with the last two is trying to figure out who would get the bump – the safe answer is Jones, who will get the start, but he hasn’t been playing a lot lately. Howard moves into cash territory if Capela is out, James Harden is always in cash and tournament territory, and have some tournament exposure to Jones and Trevor Ariza.
Emmanuel Mudiay will be out, putting Jameer Nelson in the starting lineup. At only $4,200 on DraftKings, he’s a terrific value tonight, assuming he gets 30-plus minutes in Mudiay’s absence. Danilo Gallinari, Will Barton, and Kenneth Faried have all been playing well the last several games and although it makes me feel uncomfortable to say this, I’m actually okay with all of them (though don’t use all of them in the same lineup) in cash and especially GPP lineups. If you want to guess the frontcourt rotation other than Faried with Nikola Jokic, Joffrey Lauvergne, and JJ Hickson, good luck to you.
New Orleans @ Portland, 10pm
O/U: 211, Spread: Portland -3
Analysis: This game is the highest total on the night and a juicy one for fantasy purposes, as neither team are any good at all defensively. Anthony Davis is a great cash-game play tonight – I’m starting my lineup with him and going from there. Tyreke Evans has been really good since coming back from his injury and is really underpriced still at $7,000 on DraftKings. He’s a SG on DraftKings which makes him even more valuable. I honestly don’t mind playing both in cash together. The rest of the Pelicans are GPP-only plays, and even then I’d only look at Ryan Anderson if he plays, maybe Jrue Holiday, and Eric Gordon.
Damian Lillard has been very consistent lately, even in tough matchups, so I’m fine with him in cash at $8,800 on DraftKings. He’s taking so many shots lately – he jacked up 28 last game against the slow-paced Knicks – and his usage is so high, he’s fairly safe and obviously has upside. CJ McCollum has been consistent as well – taking out the last game against the slow Knicks, he’s been at 35 or more DraftKings points in the last five games. His $6,900 salary puts him at an implied total of 30.45. To round it out, Aminu has some upside in this matchup, Allen Crabbe has been good lately but I question his upside, and the frontcourt rotation continues to be frustrating to predict.
Good luck tonight!
