Five games are more than enough to recover from an 11-game barrage. Let’s get to it.
Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6)
Implied Total: 98 – 104, O/U: 202
Tonight marks the fifth consecutive game in which Chris Paul’s salary has risen, but there’s an argument to be had that he is the top player in tonight’s slate. Even with a Projected Plus/Minus of -1.7, Paul is tied with Rajon Rondo for most Pro Trends among point guards. His projected floor of 27.1 points is fourth-highest of the entire player pool, assuring him as one of the safer plays in cash. Same goes for DeAndre Jordan whose salary has decreased -$300 since his last performance (even though he’s exceeded expectations by an average of +7.59 points over his last six games).
Don’t let the increase in salary fool you: Kyrie Irving has only managed to exceed expectations by +0.45 points over his last 10 games; his implied total of 30.91 points is a score he’s surpassed only twice in his last seven. LeBron James remains the (obviously) safest play for Cleveland as his Projected Plus/Minus of +4 leads all small forwards.
Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans (-2)
Implied Total: 102.3 – 104.3, O/U: 206.5
More worrisome than Andre Drummond’s free throw percentage is the fact that he’s failed to meet expectations by an average of -0.65 points over his last 10 games. Reggie Jackson is now implied to score 32.29 points, but no matter: he’s exceeded that total in five of his last seven games. He’s fine even in cash as his projected floor of 19.3 points (and Projected Plus/Minus of +2.1) is third highest among point guards.
There are likely ways to fit both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins into your lineup, but if choosing one, we still lean towards Cousins for only $600 (and reasons I’ll explain shortly) more. His Projected Plus/Minus of +7.6 leads all power forwards by a whopping +1.7 points, but, outside of what I’m assuming will be lower ownership due to others paying up for Cousins, the Pistons have limited opposing forwards to a median of -0.1 points below expectations. Oh, and that whole injury thing, as well.
Memphis Grizzlies (-2) at Denver Nuggets
Implied Total: 98.8 – 96.8, O/U: 195.5
Since returning from injury January 2, Danilo Gallinari ha exceeded expectations by an average of +4.99 points. Exclude his 20% shooting and measly production of 18 DraftKings points against the Heat and that average climbs to +7.34. Although the Grizzlies have stifled at the small forward position, limiting those who oppose them to -1.1 points below salary-based expectations, Gallinari makes for a subtle option at his position if not paying for the likes of LeBron or Kawhi Leonard. Emmanuel Mudiay is also a top option for Denver as long as Jameer Nelson (questionable) sits – he’s logged 38.8, 36.8, and 33.2 minutes in three starts without Nelson since returning from injury and only 25.6/16.7 minutes in two games off the bench.
Riding Mario Chalmers was fun, but alas, his implied total of 26.77 is basically unachievable as long as Mike Conley suits up. Our models show Chalmers with an abysmal Projected Plus/Minus of -9.8 for a reason. Avoid the chaos in their back court and focus more on Marc Gasol, whose projected floor of 22 points leads all centers. This matchup features the lowest implied total of the night, but Gasol has exceeded expectations by an average of +12.12 points over his last four games. With Jusuf Nurkic still on a closely-monitored restriction of 15-20 minutes, Gasol should dominate a Denver defense allowing +0.6 points above expectations in the paint.
Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings (-1)
Implied Total: 106.8 – 107.8, O/U: 214.5
If you can pinpoint minutes for the Hawks, 1) call me, and 2) load up on their backcourt – the Kings have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3 points allowed at the point and +3.9 allowed to off-ball guards. He’s arguably the more explosive of the two, but our models show Dennis Schroeder (rather than Jeff Teague) with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.6. He’s also averaged only 19 minutes in his last four. Teague, on the other hand, has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at his position.
It was stated in yesterday’s preview but it deserves reiterating following his line of 36-16-2 last night: In 14 games without Willie Cauley-Stein, Cousins has started at center and averaged 22.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, 45.2 DraftKings points, and a usage of 33.8. In 19 games with Cauley-Stein, Cousins has rotated to power forward and averaged a difference of +6.2 points, +1.3 rebounds, +5.6 DraftKings points, and an increased usage of 36.3 (+2.5). Enough said.
San Antonio Spurs (-16) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 108.3 – 92.3, O/U: 200.5
“Oh yes, there will be blood.” – John Kramer
Phoenix began their game against the Pacers only absent of Jon Leuer and finished without T.J. Warren (benched for lack of hustling after an underwhelming three minutes of play), Markieff Morris (strained right shoulder in the first quarter), and Mirza Teletovic (sprained right ankle while filling in for Morris). Although the Spurs have suffocated opposing forwards to the tune of -2.3 points below expectations, P.J. Tucker need be considered if he could get near his previous minute total.
Patty Mills has averaged +4.3 more minutes without Tony Parker (out) this season, but one can only guess his production in a game in which the Spurs are favored by 16 points. San Antonio, for instance, has been favored by 16 points or more twice this season. In those two games, Mills exceeded expectations by an average of +9.15 points. Still, that pales in comparison to LaMarcus Aldridge’s Plus/Minus over that time:
Good luck tonight!
