It’s a four-game slate bombarded with stars (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, etc.) and scrubs (the Phoenix Suns). Let’s get to it.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-4.5)
Implied Total: 94 – 98.5, O/U: 192.5
Over his last four games, Giannis Antetokounmpo has exceeded expectations by an average of +15.71 points. His averages of 22.5 points, 12 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 47.4 DraftKings points over that time are impressive, but not as impressive as the fact that FanDuel actually raised his price higher than DraftKings. In turn, Antetokounmpo can be rostered with a Bargain Rating of 86%. It’s not the best of spots admittedly as the Bucks are implied to score the fewest points (in the lowest overall total) of tonight’s slate, but note they’ve overshot their implied total by an average of +5.6 points – scoring 104.5 points per 100 possessions, good for seventh overall in the league — over the last four.
Greg Monroe has exceeded expectations in 80% of his performances over the last 10, but his recent trend in minutes keeps him from cash considerations. John Henson has gotten a lot of recent run at center, getting 31.2 and 18.6 minutes in consecutive games. Albeit roamed by Hassan Whiteside (whose Projected Plus/Minus of +8 leads all centers), the Heat have an entirely neutral Opponent Plus/Minus in the paint and Henson could easily exceed value given limited time; he averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in those two showings.
The wheels might obviously be turning while he learns to read the court at this early stage in playing point guard, but for fantasy purposes, there might be no greater value than Tyler Johnson. His minutes (and salary) have rose in four consecutive games as Beno Udrih (already declared out for tonight) has shared minutes at the point. Though Johnson now sits at $5,100, his implied total of 22.17 is a score he’s exceeded by an average of +4.33 points without Goran Dragic available; he should have no problem exceeding that total given that he’ll have the entire reigns to the Miami offense all to himself.
Even so, there’s an argument to be had for Milwaukee at the point. Jared Bayless returned in their last game and logged 21 minutes (and a line of 3-2-6) compared to Michael Carter-Williams’ 26. Considering his Projected Plus/Minus of -0.4 is +4.7 points higher than that of Carter-Williams (-5.1), throwing a dart at Bayless in tournaments isn’t the worst idea – no team has allowed more raw fantasy points to points than Miami over the last five games.
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans (-5)
Implied Total: 104 – 99, O/U: 203
Norris Cole has started for Tyreke Evans in the two games he’s missed this season. Although his minutes in those instances (38 and 30) are certainly worth punting his implied total of 16.19 points for, Jrue Holiday continues to come off the bench and produce exponentially. The latter has exceeded expectations by an average of +6.59 points over his last 10 despite logging greater than 30 minutes in only 30% of said performances. Since DraftKings sets their salaries the night prior, Holiday is actually -$100 cheaper than he was just yesterday.
For Minnesota, one could argue Gorgui Dieng as the most valuable player in tonight’s slate. Implied to score only 17.57 points, Dieng has averaged 22.2 DraftKings points in 24.7 minutes without Pekovic this season. Even if Kevin Garnett were to start (and he will), Gieng has logged 24 minutes in 36 games with Garnett. It’s only fitting that his Projected Plus/Minus of +5.5 is second-highest at his position.
He has an abysmal projected floor of 1.1, yes. The Pelicans have allowed -0.4 points below salary-based expectations at his position, sure. But I believe there’s merit to rostering Kevin Martin in tournaments tonight. It’s not for the faint of heart, and I certainly wouldn’t suggest you use more than one bullet on him, but it’s of note that Martin logged 28.8 minutes before sitting out Friday with illness. He returned to play 15 minutes on Sunday, scoring 14.50 DraftKings points. More importantly, he exceeded expectations in both games.
Oklahoma City (-9.5) at Denver Nuggets
Implied Total: 110.5 – 102, O/U: 212.5
The Thunder are implied to score the most points of any team team, meaning it wouldn’t be the worst idea to have exposure towards either of Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook – both have the highest projected ceilings and floors at their position.
We’re on Jameer Nelson Watch in Denver. Despite false reports that he had already been listed out, Nelson is currently leaning towards doubtful. If he were to sit, the seas would part for another night of exposure towards Emmanual Mudiay and his Projected Plus/Minus of +2.1. Mudiay, for example, has played four games since returning from injury. In the two he’s started in place of Jameer Nelson, he’s logged 38 and 36 minutes, exceeding expectations by an average of +6.14 points. He’s failed to meet expectations by an average of -4.96 points in the other two. Russell Westbrook is personally allowing only 98.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, but the Thunder still hold an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1 allowed to point guards.
Indiana Pacers (-7) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 108.3 – 101.3, O/U: 209.5
Exposure towards the Pacers depends entirely on availability. As it stands, George Hill is questionable while Ian Mahinmi remains likely to play.
No team has allowed more raw fantasy points to off-ball guards – a position in which Monta Ellis will likely start whether Hill is available or not — over their last five games than the Suns. Without Hill, however, it should be noted that Ellis’ usage climbs from 24.1 to 27.5. Joseph Young, who erupted for 26.3 DraftKings points and a line of 15-1-7 off the bench in a similar matchup, would also lose tournament focus if Hill suits up.
Myles Turner rattled off 1.46 DraftKings points per minute in fill-in duty for Mahinmi but has averaged only 13.4 minutes when both suit up. Still, despite his projected floor of 3.9 points, our models prefer Turner over fan-favorite Markieff Morris (who has a projected floor of 2.3). And while we’re here, note that Morris’ Projected Plus/Minus of -6.2 ranks third-lowest at his position. Considering Phoenix has their entire front court healthy (Morris, Alex Len, Tyson Chandler, Jon Leuer, Mirza Teletovic), one can only guess which rotation they’ll lean on at night’s end.
Good luck figuring it out.
