Okay, nine-game slate. Let’s do it.
Timberwolves @ Thunder (-13)
Implied Total: 98.25 – 111.25, O/U: 209.5
These two teams played just three days ago in Minnesota, and the game was actually pretty close – the Thunder pulled out a five-point victory late. The Thunder are an interesting team – of the top squads that regularly see large spreads (13 here), the Thunder’s isn’t because of their defense, which makes it easier to use players against. For example, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Shabazz Muhammad, and Zach LaVine all had good games in that first matchup, despite it being “tough.”
The same guys are in the mix for the Wolves, and you can throw Rubio in there as well. Interestingly, they stuck Wiggins on Westbrook and hid Rubio on guys like Roberson – that in theory is good for Rubio’s offensive value, but it didn’t translate to points and only got 21 minutes. However, at only $6,900 he’s a nice tournament play. Wiggins is the closest thing to a cash play, although the Wolves are all in tournament range for me tonight. He’s been great lately along with KAT, and although the minutes are inconsistent for Shabazz and LaVine, they’re worth GPP fliers.
The Wolves are not a great defensive team, as shown by the high implied Thunder team total of 110.5. Obviously Westbrook and Durant are in play – they’re both fine in cash if you can fit them in, and I’d lean Durant because of the savings. I’m not sure you’ll get an ownership discount on Russ despite the ejection last game, but perhaps it’ll bump it down a bit in tournaments. Serge Ibaka is a fine tournament play and you can always give Enes Kanter a look in large-spread games with potential blowout minutes. Dion Waiters got a minutes bump with Russ’ ejection, but that’s too points-chasey for me.
Wizards @ Pacers (-6.5)
Implied Total: 99.75 – 106.25, O/U: 206
Some quick news: George Hill is questionable tonight and C.J. Miles will start ahead of Lavoy Allen as the Pacers go with their smaller lineup. Hill has been getting huge minutes lately and is underpriced at $5,200; be careful of his injury situation though. If he’s out, expect Monta Ellis to play the PG minutes and be a really solid option at $6,200, especially with Rodney Stuckey out for a couple weeks. Paul George is under $9k and has been playing better lately – if George Hill is out, I really like PG in this matchup, especially with Otto Porter ruled out. Miles is fine in tournaments and Mahinmi is a sneaky play as well – the Wizards have been fairly tough at times against big men, but that’s mostly because of Gortat, who is out tonight.
John Wall is an elite play tonight if George Hill is out for the Pacers. Even if Hill play, Wall is a solid option in both cash and tournaments, but Hill’s defense is good enough to swing Wall to elite if that happens. This Wizards team is a bit hard to predict right now, but I’ll try – I don’t think Beal is playable until his minutes ramp back up, Garrett Temple is a nice tournament play with Porter out, Dudley is playing high minutes but doesn’t really have the upside or floor you’re looking for, and Drew Gooden is worth tournament fliers with Gortat out.
Suns @ Celtics (-9.5)
Implied Total: 99.5 – 109, O/U: 208.5
Brandon Knight hasn’t been very efficient in Eric Bledsoe’s absence, but the usage is really all we’re concerned about in DFS. His $7,200 DraftKings salary puts him at an implied total of 31.8, which seems very easy, making him both cash and tournament playable. Devin Booker’s salary has rocketed up and is now at $5,100 – he’s now in tournament-only territory for me, along with the rest of the Suns because of minute inconsistencies. Pick your darts in GPPs, and if I had to rank them other thank Knight, I’d go Warren > Booker > Teletovic > Tucker.
This is a really good spot for the Celtics, as they’re nine-point favorites at home and have an implied point total at 109. Isaiah Thomas has been on fire lately, hitting 40 DK points last game and over 50 the two previous. His salary of $7,900 is still fine and this matchup warrants a good amount of exposure. Jae Crowder is one of the more consistent DFS players, both in terms of minutes and production, although that makes him more appealing in cash than tournaments. Amir Johnson has killed it lately despite not a huge amount of minutes, so more tournaments than cash. Avery Bradley has high minutes but not really a safe floor or high ceiling, so meh. The same with Sullinger, Turner, Smart, and Olynyk – stick with good exposure to Thomas, Crowder, and Amir.
Blazers (-4.5) @ Nets
Implied Total: 104.5 – 100, O/U: 204.5
This game I think is a bit juicier than the line implies – neither team is very good and they have predictable players, so despite the low total, we can find some plays. Starting with the Blazers, Lillard is probably the hottest players in the league right now. He put up 52 DraftKings points in only 29 minutes last game against the Jazz. He’s an easy cash-game play tonight and you should have a bunch of exposure in tournaments too. McCollum is in tourney-only range because of his price, but is seeing consistent minutes and has a high ceiling. Aminu and Plumlee are sneaky tournament plays, but I wouldn’t go down further than that for Portland.
DraftKings’ pricing has been really soft on Cs all year long – we’ve discussed this often on the podcast – and Brook Lopez is pretty underpriced at $7,600. The Blazers frontcourt isn’t very good, which makes both Lopez (in cash and tournaments) and Thad Young (tournaments only) very playable tonight. Joe Johnson is fine in a tournament, although I rarely roster him. Either Shane Larkin or Donald Sloan would be in play because of this easy matchup, but they’re splitting minutes, which takes them both out tonight.
Hawks (-4.5) @ Bucks
Implied Total: 106.75 – 102.25, O/U: 209
Speaking of bad frontcourts, the Bucks is one that has been profitable to target this year. Thankfully, the Hawks best DFS players are in their frontcourt, so you should give a long look to both Paul Millsap and Al Horford in both cash and tournaments. They’re coming off a dreadful game against the Hornets, but don’t let recency bias hurt you tonight. Unfortunately, the rest of the Hawks fall in that “no-play zone,” where they have too low of a floor to play in cash and not high enough of a ceiling to go in tournaments. If I had to choose one though, it’d be Dennis Schroder.
Greg Monroe is finally seeing above 30 minutes – he’s been very good in DFS terms for a while now, making it frustrating that Kidd has played him in the 20s. There are better cash-game plays for sure, but his $6,900 price and probable low ownership makes him a very nice tournament play. MCW is always a tournament play – hopefully you catch him on the right night. Both Middleton and Antetokounmpo have been playing so high minutes that I don’t mind them in either format either. Their implied point total and this spread indicates that they should definitely hit value if they go 40-ish minutes, which is where they’ve been lately. Jabari is creeping towards the no-play zone, although I think he’s fine a tournament because of his price.
Hornets @ Pelicans (-2.5)
Implied Total: 99 – 101.5, O/U: 200.5
Kemba had an amazing game Wednesday against the Hawks, putting up 44 DK points in only 26 minutes. The two games before that though, he struggled – that combined with the defense of Jrue Holiday puts him in GPP-only range tonight. Batum’s price is nice, but hasn’t seen the same sort of DFS production since coming back from injury. Unfortunately, he’s not really playable right now until that trend reverses, although because of Jeremy Lamb being out, I’m fine with tournament exposure. Speaking of Lamb’s absence, this will put Jeremy Lin with increased minutes off-ball. I do think that doesn’t necessarily help him that much, as he likes to do his damage against the softer second units. Still, he’s a good tournament play tonight. Other than that, you can play the Cody Zeller lottery if you want.
I don’t think any player has elicited as many Twitter hot takes as much as Anthony Davis this year. I get it – his ceiling is so high on a nightly basis that you have to play him, yet he can get injured at any time. Sounds like a dream GPP play to me, so use him as such. Other than that, the Pelicans are largely tournament-only plays tonight – Jrue is really intriguing if Tyreke Evans gets ruled out, along with Norris Cole. If Evans plays, he’s an okay tournament option, and Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon fall in that category as well.
Mavericks (-1.5) @ Bulls
Implied Total: 101.5 – 100, O/U: 201.5
It looks like the Mavericks will play their starters tonight and are in a good spot here – the Bulls aren’t a great matchup usually, but are coming off a back-to-back where their starters played huge minutes. The Mavericks are rested and have a significant edge in that regard. Dirk and Zaza are in cash range for me – they’re so consistent every night they play. Deron Williams is intriguing as a tournament play, given the tired Bulls and his large minutes last game. Parsons and Wes Matthews have been seeing huge minutes as well, and even though their ceilings haven’t been as high as we’ve expected, that many minutes at reasonable prices are nice bets in GPPs.
The Bulls are the toughest team to judge tonight. Again, they’re coming off a back-to-back where they had to go to overtime just to beat the 76ers. Jimmy Butler destroyed, scoring 53 real points and 81 DK points, but also played 49 minutes. He’s usually not a guy affected by that, but it’s enough of a concern where I’m completely fading the Bulls in cash. Butler, Pau (who missed last night so is more rested), Mirotic, Taj, and Noah are all tourney options, with Pau and Noah being my favorite of them.
Heat (-3) @ Nuggets
Implied Total: 98 – 95, O/U: 193
The Heat travel to Denver to take on the best team in the NBA, the Warriors-slayer, the Nuggets. Whiteside is probable for tonight, while Dragic is out. Chris Bosh is an okay cash play – he’s consistent and this is a good matchup – but there are probably better options on this slate. Whiteside is always more tourney than cash for me because of his statistical profile, but is worth a look in GPPs because of the matchup. Wade is similar in that regard as well. Both Gerald Green and Tyler Johnson are worth looks in GPPs, especially with Dragic out. Beno Udrih will get most of the PG minutes, but his floor and ceiling are both too low for me to have high exposure, even with the matchup.
With Bosh and Whiteside protecting the rim and the Nuggets coming off an emotional, big win, this is a fairly easy fade for me tonight. You can go Gallo, Barton, or one of the rotating bigs if you want to be contrarian in tournaments, but I really hate going against the Heat with Bosh and Whiteside down low. I’ll largely fade in both contest formats.
Cavs (-1) @ Rockets
Implied Total: 102.5 – 101.5, O/U: 204
To finish this slate, we get a Cavs team coming off a tough matchup on the road against the Spurs and now have the second leg of a road back-to-back against the Rockets. The two matchups are about as opposite as it gets, so I do think there’s some merit in targeting Cavs players despite the perceived awful situation. The Rockets are the worst team in the league to SFs, so yes, LeBron James. Both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving struggled last night (understandably so), so this could be a nice bounce-back spot for them, though I would go only tournaments because of the B2B. Lastly, Tristan Thompson had an amazing game last night and is fairly priced at $4,900 – he’s worth a shot against a Rockets team that also struggles against PFs.
Patrick Beverley will play tonight, which takes both him and Ty Lawson out of consideration. This is obviously a tough matchup for the Rockets as the Cavs are elite defensively, but perhaps catching them on a road back-to-back will open up some potential GPP value for their top guys – James Harden and Dwight Howard. They are certainly not cash playable for me tonight, but both possess elite upside and could be sneaky tonight because of the Cavs B2B situation. I’m not really interested in any other Rocket.
Good luck tonight!
