Contrarianism plays a much larger role in smaller slates since ownership is near transparent as it pertains to the more polarizing options. Not contrarianism for the sake of it, of course, but differing in a way in which you forego on values to use not-so-obvious values. This is when simply knowing the sport and current situations for players is at its most profitable (and cash games are at their least). Keep that in mind when sifting through the three games on-hand.
San Antonio Spurs (-14.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 103.8 – 89.3, O/U: 193
I’m assuming all larger GPPs are going to come down to who rosters the correct values (or in this case, darts) involved in this particular matchup, so let’s just list them all:
- The Nets are implied to score six fewer points than any other team on tonight’s slate and, unfortunately for them, someone has to play point guard. Shane Larkin was benched to begin the second half in their last game, leading Donald Sloan to score five of his 15 points and record six of his 10 assists in that time. Sloan averaged 11.1 points (on 38% shooting), 6.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in 21 starts with the Pacers last season and remains $500 cheaper than Larkin.
- Patty Mills has scored a total of 11 DraftKings points in his last two games despite logging 23 and 15 minutes. Note his salary has reduced $200 since last week and now comes with an 84% Bargain Rating at DraftKings.
- Although implied to score 22.08 points, Tony Parker has exceeded his expectations in 70% of his last 10 performances. In 16 games that the Spurs have been favored by double-digits this season, Parker has averaged +7.12 points more than his expectations.
- Danny Green has scored double-digit DraftKings points in every performance in the last month, but scored no more than 15 points in eight instances over that span.
- Wayne Ellington scored 42.25 DraftKings points on December 28 and that feels like forever ago.
- At $4,200, Manu Ginobli certainly counts as a reasonable bargain. He’s eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, exceeding his expectations by an average of +3.81 points in his last 10. It bodes well that the Nets have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.0 points allowed to off-ball guards.
- Jonathan Simmons logged 20 and 17 minutes once the Spurs took commanding leads over the Bucks and Jazz, but played only nine minutes in their down-to-the-wire bout against the Knicks. Take that however you will.
- David West hasn’t had a single-digit performance on DraftKings since December 12. In his last 10 alone, he’s overshot his expectations by an average of +4.09 points. If Tim Duncan sits, he’ll be highly coveted (as he should be).
- Brooklyn has allowed +2.2 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers. Boban? Maybe just this once, please?
Like I said: Darts.
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-8)
Implied Total: 99.8 – 107.8, O/U: 207.5
Going Stephen Curry or John Wall tonight will also be another crucial decision (for those willing to pay up) as there are merits to be had with both. For example, our models show Wall with a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.0. That leaves only Kirk Hinrich, Shaun Livingston, Ramon Sessions, and Tony Parker ranked below him in that particular category. On the other hand, his 10 Pro Trends lead his position as the Bulls have allowed +1.4 points above salary-based expectations at the point. His 73% Bargain Rating at DraftKings seems ridiculous when weighing the fact that he’s scored fewer than 43 points only twice in his last 12 appearances. Same goes for Otto Porter, who costs $300 less at FanDuel despite three consecutive games of at least 28 points.
If not willing to pay top dollar for Brook Lopez, either Marcin Gortat or Pau Gasol (or both) will do just fine. Though the Bulls have allowed +1.7 points above expectations to opposing centers (essentially giving Gortat the initial nod over Pau), both big men are ranked in the top-five in field goals defended at the rim (with Gasol leading that particular category). While Pau has allowed those opposing him to shoot 45.3% underneath the hoop, Gortat has allowed a field goal percentage of 48.3% — only Andre Drummond is allowing a higher field goal percentage of those defending at least 8.5 shots at the rim per game.
The return of Joakim Noah would certainly rustle who comes off the bench for Chicago, but ultimately it would mean 1) Taj Gibson, who’s eclipsed his implied total only once in the last five games, would no longer be cash viable, and 2) Bobby Portis would fall out of existence. One could argue the latter has done so already, logging only nine minutes on 0-for-3 shooting in his last game. Instead, Nikola Mirotic continues to flourish, having exceeded his expectations by an average of +6.19 points in his last 10. Note Mirotic has strung together five consecutive performances of at least 25 DraftKings points, scoring at least 43 in two of those instances.
Much like Derrick Rose and his recent consistency – Rose has exceeded his implied total of 26.31 DraftKings points in four of his last five games — one could argue both are top options in cash due to their price points alone.
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors (-13.5)
Implied Total: 96.0 – 109.5, O/U: 205.5
Arguably the most intriguing matchup of the night isn’t even between two franchises, but rather two individuals. Draymond Green is defending 16.8 field goal attempts per game, most in the league. But, while Green has forced opponents to shoot -6.6% below their average field goal percentage, Chris Bosh leads Miami with 19.2 points per game. Something’s gotta give.
While it’s just as easy to roster Bosh at reduced cost, it’s important to note that Green has been at his best in blowouts at home. Golden State, for instance, has been double-digit favorites at the Oracle in 12 of their 37 games this season (or 32.4%). In those 12 games, Green has exceeded his expectations by an average of +13.93 points. That’s the equivalence of being given an additional flex position and told to roster anyone that cost up to $3,300.
Although Miami is road dogs of 13.5 points doesn’t mean there isn’t anyone to like. Their peripherals might be down across the board when away from American Airlines Center, sure, but Gerald Green has exceeded his expectations by an average of +4.47 points in their 12 road games this season. With Tyler Johnson questionable for tonight, Green could see extended run as he did when he scored 27.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes in their last outing.
For Klay Thompson, it’s hard to argue against him albeit in a horrific spot. Our models project Thompson to score -4.2 points fewer than his implied total of 35.97, as the Heat have suffocated opposing shooting guards to -1.0 points below salary-based expectations. It’s worth noting that Jimmy Butler costs only $200 more.
As for the rest of your roster, it appears mirror the theme for the night: Your guess is as good as mine.
