The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position is surprisingly thin at the top for an 11-game slate. Damian Lillard is the highest-priced option on FanDuel at $9,100 and has been a nice source of value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.28 over his past 10 games. His matchup today versus the Jazz is interesting. On one hand, the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.54 for Lillard on FanDuel. Further, the Blazers’ implied team total of 101 points is the lowest mark on the slate and represents a decrease of four points compared to their season average (105). On the other hand, Lillard has historically provided elite production against the Jazz, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.88 over his past 13 meetings:
Value
Tomas Satoransky became the latest PG to crush the Cavaliers, scoring just under 40 fantasy points in 31.5 minutes yesterday. Andrew Harrison is the next PG up, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.96 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s a much stronger value on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
The best matchup of the day at the position belongs to Goran Dragic, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.61 against the New Orleans Pelicans. Dragic has seen his fantasy production wane a bit recently, but he’s still averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s been playing only about 32 minutes per game recently, but that should still give him a chance to pay off his current salary in an elite spot.
Kyrie Irving has been priced down to $7,900 on FanDuel, which results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has a tough matchup versus the Pistons, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.60, but he’s still enticing at one of his lowest salaries of the season.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has taken his already-elite production to another level over the past month, averaging 1.60 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. He has a nice matchup today versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have struggled on the defensive end of the court this season. They rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 117.75 is the highest on the slate. These two teams met just last week, and Harden put up 62.7 FanDuel points in a 126-108 win for Houston. He’s a slightly better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Lou Williams has been underpriced on FanDuel for most of February, and his current $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on today’s slate. He’s also in an elite spot against the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers’ implied team total of 117.25 points trails only the Rockets’, and Williams has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39. He should be one of the chalkiest options of the day.
Value
No value SG really jumps off the page, but one guy who could be worth a look is Danny Green. He’s played over 30 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That said, the Spurs will likely be as healthy as they’ve been all season with LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, and Manu Ginobili all set to rejoin the rotation, and Green has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.48 on FanDuel. If you’re going to play him, do it on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio is officially questionable for today’s contest with the Blazers. If he’s unable to go, Donovan Mitchell will once again become an elite play at the SG position. He already leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has seen a team-high usage bump of 2.2 percent with Rubio off the court this season:
Most of the big-name SG options are better values today on FanDuel, which could make a guy like Will Barton intriguing on DraftKings. He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent and has crushed recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.11 over his past 10 games.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is now 3-for-3 in exceeding salary-based expectations with his new teammates. He’s seen a nice bump in usage with the new roster, posting a usage rate of at least 32.3 percent in all three contests. He doesn’t have a great matchup today versus the Memphis Grizzlies, who have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, but LeBron’s salary has been decreased to a very reasonable $11,300 on FanDuel in anticipation of the difficult matchup. The slow pace of the Grizzlies hasn’t stopped Vegas from giving the Cavs an implied team total of 109.75, and LeBron’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.33 isn’t awful either.
Value
Danilo Gallinari is hopeful to play today after injuring his right hand yesterday against the Warriors. If he does suit up, he will find himself in an excellent spot against the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 on FanDuel. He’s underpriced at $6,300 given his recent production: He’s averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is projected for 35.2 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler will probably be overlooked today on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has the best matchup among the elite SFs, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.85, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 109.25 is only slightly lower than Cleveland’s.
Otto Porter has averaged a stout 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month on DraftKings, where his current $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He has a nice matchup today versus the Charlotte Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.36.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis absolutely destroyed the Lakers in his last game before the All-Star break, putting up 79.25 DraftKings points despite briefly exiting the game with an injury. He’s been dominant in general this season with DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup, averaging 57.75 DraftKings points per game:
He’s a bit underpriced still on DraftKings given his production without Boogie, and his current $11,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. That said, he does have a tough matchup against the slow-paced Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.94.
Davis isn’t the only PF underpriced on DraftKings. LaMarcus Aldridge has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent and should return to being the focal point of the Spurs offense. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.5 percent with Leonard off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 fantasy points per minute:
We currently have him projected for 34.6 minutes, which would give him an excellent shot at returning value.
Value
Mason Plumlee will return for the Nuggets after missing the previous eight games and reportedly will not be on any sort of minutes restriction. Of course, he doesn’t typically play many minutes anyway and relies on elite per-minute productivity for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute this season, which has made him one of the most consistent options at the position.
Fast Break
Nikola Mirotic is yet another PF who looks like a nice value on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to $6,600, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He suffers from the same matchup concerns as Davis, but he’s too cheap to ignore at his current salary.
On FanDuel, Blake Griffin will likely be the preferred option for those paying up at the position. His 13 Pro Trends leads the position by a mile, and PFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary ($8,700) have historically been awesome values:
He also has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond saw his price tag get a bit out of hand recently, peaking at a ridiculous $11,200 on FanDuel. He’s back to a much more reasonable $9,700 on today’s slate and has historically dominated the Boston Celtics:
That includes a 70.4-point fantasy game from earlier this season.
Value
Tyson Chandler is doubtful for today’s game, and his absence will likely result in a huge workload for Alex Len. Len has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past month and played just under 38 minutes in his last contest without Chandler. He also has a great matchup versus the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.96. He’s extremely appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
It’s odd to see the top center plays grade out as better values on FanDuel, but that’s exactly what’s happening on today’s slate. Nikola Jokic has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and he’s been a beast over his past 10 games:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.22 against the Spurs, but he did go for 57.1 fantasy points against them just 10 days ago. He could definitely be worth some exposure with projected ownership of just five to eight percent.
Dwight Howard is one of the best values at the top of the position on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has a nice matchup with the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99, and the Hornets were able to limit his minutes a bit in yesterday’s contest versus the Nets.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
