The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Carmelo Anthony missed the Thunder’s last game with a sore back and participated only in non-contact practice yesterday. If he were to miss, it would definitely be a positive situation for both Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Westbrook played 32.7 minutes last game without Anthony versus PG’s 42.2, but it’s possible Billy Donovan was riding George’s red-hot hand; PG has gone for 37 and 42 real points over his past two games. Westbrook still saw a massive increase in usage rate without Melo, posting a 40.9 percent mark — a team-high 9.1 percent increase. If Anthony misses tonight’s game, he’s certainly intriguing, especially on FanDuel, where he comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and 13 Pro Trends. The only downside is a possible blowout: The Thunder are the largest favorites of the day at -12 (no other team is more than -5, incredibly) against a poor Bulls squad. With that said, Westbrook has shown he’s fine in double-digit spread games over the years:
Value
Nicolas Batum will make his first start of the year tonight for the Hornets, who have a juicy matchup against a Cavs team that now ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing an atrocious 111.1 points per 100 possessions. You might think that Batum’s inclusion in the lineup hurts Kemba Walker, but that wasn’t the case last season. Here are his splits with and without his backcourt mate:
- Without Batum: 35.1 minutes, 29.4 percent usage, 94.3 pace, 33.7 DraftKings points, 0.96 fantasy points per minute
- With Batum: 34.7 minutes, 29.5 percent usage, 95.7 pace, 38.1 DraftKings points, 0.97 fantasy points per minute
With Batum, Walker played faster, scored more DraftKings points, and was more efficient offensively. Given Walker’s ridiculously-high +10.64 DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus today, it might be a good time to buy before his price rises.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard has struggled of late, mostly because of cold shooting:
For that reason (and Westbrook possibly without Melo), Lillard could go underowned tonight. He faces an Orlando team that ranks sixth in pace (103.7 possessions per 48 minutes) and has been the fourth-most generous team to opposing PGs this season.
Kris Dunn has played well of late, hitting value in 71 percent of his games this season. Justin Holiday is out tonight, and Fred Hoiberg is reportedly leaning toward starting Dunn in his absence. Dunn has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season without Holiday on the floor.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The top of the SG pricing tier is pitiful today: DeMar DeRozan ($7,600), Bradley Beal ($7,200), and Victor Oladipo ($7,100) are the highest-priced options. DeRozan is on the second leg of a road back-to-back, and Oladipo is on the road in Memphis. Beal might be the guy to target if you want to pay up, as he has a manageable matchup against the Heat. Miami owns a top-10 defense this season but has struggled specifically against SGs, as evidenced by Beal’s +4.34 Opponent Plus/Minus. In similar spots, he’s been solid enough:
Value
And the usage leader for the 2017-18 Utah Jazz is … rookie Donovan Mitchell? You’re darn right: The Summer League superstar has kept things rolling in the regular season, and he’s getting legitimate minutes, going for 30-plus in five of his past seven contests. In the two games so far without Rudy Gobert, Mitchell has dominated, posting a 33.9 percent usage rate and averaging a ridiculous 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. Load him up again today against a bottom-10 defense in the Knicks; they don’t exactly have the greatest wing defenders:
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson has been up and down, and it’s worrisome that he’s playing only about 20-25 minutes per game. But his usage during that time is hard to ignore — he posted a 30.7 mark last game en route to 36.1 FanDuel points — and he’s still incredibly cheap, especially at FanDuel, where his $4,200 price tag comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating. Ditto for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who has a lower usage rate but higher minutes.
Tyreke Evans faces a bottom-10 defensive team in the Pacers tonight, and Mike Conley is questionable with a left Achilles issue that has plagued him all year. This is hard to fade:
Small Forward
Studs
Unlike the SG position, SF spot is full of studs today, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Ben Simmons, and Paul George. The latter has been utterly ridiculous lately, posting 60.5 and 70.3 DraftKings points in his past two games and playing over 40 minutes in his past three. Even at an elevated price tag of $8,500 and in a double-digit spread against the Bulls, George should be considered if Melo sits out again. If Melo is in, you can’t really go wrong with the other three options. Giannis might be the contrarian play, as weird as that sounds. He has the toughest matchup against a Detroit team that ranks ninth in defensive efficiency. Fortunately, matchups don’t really matter for the MVP hopeful: He just put up 55.8 and 61.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies and Spurs.
Values
Norman Powell sat out last night for the Raptors, and both OG Anunoby and C.J. Miles put up solid games, posting +9.08 and +18.8 FanDuel Plus/Minus values, respectively. Neither saw a price increase overnight, so they remain dirt cheap at $3,200 and $3,100 on FanDuel. Anunoby is still min price on DraftKings. Of the two, Miles is a thinner play, as he didn’t really see an increase in minutes sans Powell. He did post a very high 32.2 percent usage rate while on the floor, but his 16.6 minutes won’t fly most nights. Anunoby, on the other hand, played 29.6 minutes and proved to be immensely valuable on both ends of the floor, scoring 16 real points and playing excellent defense on James Harden. If Powell is out, he’s worth a look again tonight as a min-priced punt play.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler said he wanted to shoot more, and he’s gotten his usage rate up to at least respectable levels in the past two games:
That, plus improved shooting, has led to his best fantasy performances of the season, as he posted 47.8 and 43.9 FanDuel points. He has a tough matchup against San Antonio tonight, although they are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Butler is SG-only on DraftKings, but he’s way too cheap there; his $6,900 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
In three games this season without Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, or Nik Stauskas, J.J. Redick has averaged 33.2 minutes and 26.0 DraftKings points. That’s not exciting, but it’ll play at $4,800.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons is a PG and SF on DraftKings and a PF only on FanDuel. Fun stuff. He’s a better value on the former site, where his $9,100 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating, but he’s still in play at $9,800 on FanDuel. Simmons has an interesting matchup against the Lakers, who rank third in pace this season, averaging 105.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and somehow fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.5 points per 100 possessions. They’re likely playing over their head in that regard, and Simmons may not be affected anyway: He owns a nice +2.70 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. After Lonzo Ball opened the season as the Rookie of the Year favorite, you think Simmons might get up for this game?
Values
Dario Saric had his worst game in a while, posting just 11.6 FanDuel points against the LA Clippers. Still, he got 33.6 minutes in the win, and he’s averaging more than 30 minutes in games without Bayless. He’s not terribly efficient — he’s accumulating just 0.64 FanDuel points per minute — but he’s still so cheap. Saric’s $4,500 salary comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends. For those reasons — plus his massive +4.61 Opponent Plus/Minus mark against the Lakers — he has one of the highest PF ratings in several of our NBA Pro Models.
Fast Break
Zach Randolph isn’t playing a ton of minutes, but he’s consistently hit his value this year thanks to his sky-high usage rate:
He has nice upside today against a Hawks squad that ranks 29th in rebound rate, grabbing just 46.6 percent of the boards this season.
Anthony Davis has a poor -1.31 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings against the Raptors, but he does get them on the second leg of a back-to-back. He’s been just fine in similar spots:
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid just finished eviscerating DeAndre Jordan and that other guy, and now he gets to take more beef into tonight’s game against Lonzo and the Lakers. He got up to 35.5 minutes last game — a career-high for him — and will look to do damage against a Lakers squad that has allowed centers to score 2.3 DraftKings points over salary-based expectations. Brook Lopez is allowing a 59.1 percent field goal rate in the restricted area, which could be a death sentence against the massive Embiid. Joel is very affordable at $8,600 on DraftKings, where he comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Given his play in LA, he’s one of the scariest fades of the night.
Value
Taj Gibson has played 39.3 and 36.4 minutes over the past two games without Gorgui Dieng in the lineup, and Dieng is likely to miss tonight’s game. Taj has gone for 32.5 and 35.3 DraftKings points in those contests, and he’ll likely have to play big minutes tonight. He has a tough matchup against a Spurs team that ranks top-10 in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate, but he does get them on the second leg of a back-to-back. Either way, he’s too cheap at $4,900 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel given his current role.
After exploding for 46.4 DraftKings points in 35.4 minutes in his first game without Gobert, Derrick Favors came back to earth a bit, putting up only 26.0 fantasy points in 27.3 minutes against the Timberwolves. That said, there’s still upside here: He’s averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute without Gobert, and he’s posted a 19.3 percent rebound rate. He faces the Knicks, who are good at grabbing boards, but Favors remains in play at $5,600.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond is coming off a tough game, scoring “only” 34.4 FanDuel points. Still, he’s been a monster lately:
He has 11 FanDuel Pro Trends and a massive +6.50 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bucks.
Karl-Anthony Towns played more than 40 minutes for the first time all season last game, and he could be needed a bunch tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. He put up 51 DraftKings points last time he played the Spurs, and he has noticeable career home/away splits, posting a +4.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus in Minnesota. He could be low-owned today given the likely popularity of Embiid and maybe even DeMarcus Cousins.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
