The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There are five players priced at $10,000 or higher on FanDuel today, but they’re all at two positions: small forward and center. No PG is higher than $8,000 thanks to Stephen Curry‘s absence, with Eric Bledsoe ($8,000), Kemba Walker ($7,800) and Lonzo Ball ($7,500) sitting at the top of the range.
Lonzo has been the best of the bunch lately, averaging a +3.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He’s playing huge minutes — he’s gone between 38 and 41 in each of his past three — and has a very safe floor for cash games given his peripheral statistics. He’s totaled at least seven assists in each of his past five games, and he’s averaging 2.59 steals + blocks on the season. Only Bledsoe (2.61) is above him in that regard, and no other PG is even above 1.67 per game.
Value
Cameron Payne has averaged a robust +3.24 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, and he’s eclipsed 20 fantasy points in each of his past five. He played more than 30 minutes for the first time all season in Saturday’s loss to the Cavaliers, and he’ll likely have to continue to play heavy minutes with the Bulls missing Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn in the backcourt. Payne is projected above 30 minutes today, and he has an excellent matchup against Emmanuel Mudiay and a terrible Knicks defense that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
In five games this season without Dion Waiters, Dwyane Wade, and Hassan Whiteside playing, Miami PG Goran Dragic has led the team with 33.1 minutes per game and a huge 31.3 percent usage rate. He’s averaged 34.5 FanDuel points per game in those contests, good for a solid 1.04 fantasy points per minute. At just $6,700 today, that would put him significantly over his salary-based expectations.
Shooting Guard
Studs
There are three FanDuel SGs priced above $7,000 today in Victor Oladipo ($9,100), Tyreke Evans ($8,000), and Khris Middleton ($7,400). Dipo has easily been the most disappointing of the three, averaging a putrid -4.48 Plus/Minus with just 30 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. Regression has hit hard for the new Pacer, and he has the toughest matchup today against a Lakers squad that has been excellent defensively with Lonzo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the backcourt. Middleton has the easiest matchup against the Cavs, evidenced by his +4.47 Opponent Plus/Minus, but Evans might be the best play of them all. He’s in an excellent pace-up spot against the Nets, who rank seventh in pace this season, and he’s gone for at least 40 FanDuel points in each of his first two games back from injury. He’s used at least 30 percent of the Grizzlies’ possessions while on the floor during that time, and he should have no problem racking up fantasy points against this Nets squad that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Nic Batum is out today for the Hornets with tendinitis in his Achilles, which means Jeremy Lamb should be in line to start at the SG spot. In the 14 games Batum has missed this season, Lamb has averaged 30.9 minutes and 28.8 DraftKings points.
Things should be no different today, and, while his matchup against the 76ers isn’t the best — Philly ranks fifth in defensive efficiency on the year — he’ll likely have the easier matchup against J.J. Redick while Kemba Walker draws Robert Covington. Regardless, Lamb’s $4,200 DraftKings price tag should make him the chalk du jour.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been awful the past two games, but no one has a minutes floor like he does right now. He’s projected for a position-high 38.0 minutes against the Pacers, and he’ll definitely be the main guy to check Oladipo. He’s solid in efficiency, averaging 0.88 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posting 1.63 steals + blocks per game.
The Knicks are somehow five-point favorites tonight in what should be an incredible tanking display against the Bulls. Tim Hardaway Jr. is leading the team in minutes of late and only got fewer than 30 minutes last game because the Knicks blew out the Hornets. Hardaway still had 35.25 DraftKings points in that game. He won’t do much but score, but he’s an interesting GPP pivot and has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus marks (+3.17) of the day.
Small Forward
Stud
Two guys are easily in a tier of their own today; they’re the only ones priced above $6,300 on FanDuel: LeBron James ($13,100) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500). LeBron has been unreal of late: Despite having sky-high price tags, he’s still exceeded salary-based expectations by at least 10 points in each of his past three games.
The issue with LBJ isn’t whether he can hit value at a $13,000 price tag; he definitely can. His salary requires 59.47 points, and he’s been between 69 and 71 in each of his past three games. Rather, the issue is roster construction. Taking LBJ gives you just $5,863 remaining for each player, and, when you factor in his likely ownership, there’s not a lot of meat on that GPP bone. Pivoting to Giannis or perhaps paying down on both spots on FanDuel could create a unique, high-upside lineup for tournaments.
Value
Lamb is a SF on FanDuel, so he’ll be incredibly popular there at just $4,800. Another guy who should be a crowd favorite is Michael Beasley, who should start today with Lance Thomas listed as out with a personal reason. Beasley typically starts in his absences, and he has massive upside. Just two games ago he put up 53.1 FanDuel points in 33.3 minutes against a tough Philly defense. What can he do in that much time against a tanking Chicago team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing a putrid 108.7 points per 100 possessions? The answer is potentially a lot. He’s a boom-or-bust player, but the downside is minimal give his low salary of $5,700 on FanDuel, where he comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Jeff Green has gone 42.3 and 33.5 minutes over his past two games, and he’ll likely have a big role again tonight versus the Bucks with Larry Nance Jr. and Rodney Hood still out. There is some volatility here, as Kevin Love could possibly return to the lineup after breaking his hand earlier this season, but either way Green should get solid run. He remains very affordable at $4,800 on DraftKings, and the game starts at 7 pm ET, so we should get word on Love prior to lock.
Power Forward
Studs
They aren’t the highest-priced PF options today, but the three guys between $7,400 and $8,500 on FanDuel will likely be very popular options:
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant remain out for the Warriors, and Draymond Green has crushed value in their absence. He’s gone for at least 50 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, and he’s impressively upped his usage rate to 29.0 and 26.3 percent, respectively, in those two. He has a tougher matchup this time around against the Spurs, but he can fill up the box score in a variety of ways and is still much too cheap at $8,500 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Blake Griffin has been up-and-down but should be the least popular guy of the trio and has a brilliant matchup against a Kings team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebound rate. Julius Randle has been a stud recently, averaging a +5.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He also has a winnable matchup against an Indiana squad that ranks bottom-10 in rebounding and could be without both Myles Turner (questionable) and Domantas Sabonis (out). Randle against Al Jefferson would be a slaughterhouse.
Value
Here are the two biggest questions of the slate currently:
- Is Kevin Love going to play?
- What should we do with him if he does suit up?
From our NBA news feed: “Early reports indicated Love was targeting a return later this week, but he’s been listed as questionable by the Cavs vs. the Bucks on Monday.” This is further complicated by the fact that head coach Ty Lue is stepping back as of today to focus on his physical health. If Love does suit up, it will be unclear how many minutes he’ll get, but he will be in a brilliant spot against a Milwaukee team that ranks 25th in rebound rate. For some reason, FanDuel decided to price Love at just $3,500, which means he needs only around 15 fantasy points to hit value. At his regular efficiency mark of 1.19 fantasy points per minute, that could come quickly. We’ll get word before lock, but make sure to pay attention to any talk of minute restrictions. I assume there will be one, but that definitely caps his upside.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo has hit value in each of his past three games by at least six FanDuel points, and he’s still priced at only $3,600. He should get significant run again with Whiteside out, and he has a nice matchup against a Denver squad that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.6 points/100. He’s an easy cash-game option again and is second to only Love in Projected Plus/Minus.
Noah Vonleh has quietly crushed value lately, posting a +2.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He is questionable to suit up with a sprained right toe but should be on the radar if he’s able to go.
Center
Stud
Centers are expensive on FanDuel today: Joel Embiid ($10,900), Andre Drummond ($10,600) and Nikola Jokic ($10,000) all have Bargain Ratings on that site of one percent or less. They are all in play on DraftKings, and each has his merits. Embiid has been unstoppable over his past three games, going for 52-plus fantasy points in each. Jokic is a boom-or-bust guy but has legitimate triple-double upside every night. And Drummond is second among all centers with a massive +5.89 Opponent Plus/Minus mark against the Sacramento Kings. They actually might all go underowned in tournaments because of multi-positional eligibility for elite players in Draymond, Randle, and LaMarcus Aldridge (more on him in a minute). That makes them all very appealing in GPPs.
Value
It feels gross, but Al Jefferson will have to be on your radar if Turner is unable to suit up again. Jefferson has played right at 25 minutes in each of his past two games and has gone for 30.3 and 43.4 FanDuel points in those. The old man put up 10-9 and 20-12, and he’ll get a lot of opportunities against the fast-paced Lakers if he draws the start again. The matchup isn’t ideal, but value centers are hard to come by today, and he’s only $4,300 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Aldridge is coming off a 59.5-point DraftKings outing against the Wolves on Saturday and just dropped 57.75 against these very Warriors a week or so ago. The Dubs are definitely weaker defensively given their injuries, and Aldridge is very cheap at only $8,400 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: LaMarcus Aldridge
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
