The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday presents a two-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. All four teams that played on Monday are playing tonight. The Cavs and Rockets were both up by at least 20 points in the fourth quarter of their wins, and David Lee was the only Spurs starter to play in the fourth quarter. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Kyrie Irving, who recorded an uncharacteristic 10 assists, and Kyle Lowry, who played 39 minutes despite the blowout loss, both produced at least 42 DraftKings points on Monday (data via the DFS Ownership Dashboard below), and neither was able to deter the other one defensively. Irving was cheaper than Lowry on DraftKings, which is probably why he came with higher ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Irving is once again cheaper than Lowry on DraftKings, and Lowry remains cheaper on FanDuel again. The logical strategy is to deploy large doses of the cheaper guard in cash games and load up on the other in GPPs. Lowry leads all players on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and if Irving is able to replicate his playmaking success from Game 1, rostering both may be a viable route in GPPs, especially on DraftKings, where both provide Bargain Ratings of at least 93 percent.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Lowry: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Patrick Beverley costs $300 less than Tony Parker on DraftKings, and Parker costs $500 less on FanDuel. Neither played more than 25 minutes in Monday’s match, and Beverley was the only one to exceed salary-based expectations.
Parker had played at least 30 minutes in three straight playoff games prior to Monday, and Beverley failed to provide value on the road during the first round. Both trends were bucked in Game 1, and Beverley’s defense on Parker helped limit the 16-year veteran’s effectiveness. In 11 games against the Rockets since the 2014-15 season, Parker has averaged less than today’s salary-implied point total (per the Trends tool), making Beverley the more attractive PG2 in cash games:
Fast Break
Deron Williams: He’s provided at least 12.0 FanDuel points in four straight games. His FanDuel salary-implied point total tonight is 8.84 points, and if the Cavs continue to dominate the Raptors, Williams will likely receive some time in the fourth quarter to pad his stats.
Shooting Guards
Stud
James Harden‘s salary has decreased $100 on DraftKings and $200 on FanDuel since Monday. Although he missed his salary-based expectation by 0.4 DraftKings points in the first game of the second round, Harden provided 51.76 DraftKings points in less than 32 minutes. In the last nine games he’s played between 31 and 39 minutes, Harden has exceeded 51.0 DraftKings points each time and averaged 63.31 DraftKings points.
The Spurs were too willing to switch the screener’s man onto Harden in Game 1, and in most cases, that left him guarded by LaMarcus Aldridge or Lee. From there, Harden either isolated on the big, found an open shooter on the wing, or dumped the ball off to a rim-running Clint Capela. If the Spurs continue to defend similarly or focus on staying glued to the 3-point shooters, Harden will proceed to offer minimal downside: Either he continues to create open shots for teammates and exploit mismatches on the perimeter, or the Spurs force Harden to score on every possession by taking away his outlets. One wrinkle the Spurs could employ is guarding Harden with Kawhi Leonard full time, but Leonard spent time camped on Ryan Anderson in Game 1, waiting to switch on pick-and-rolls that never came.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Values
For the second time this week, Eric Gordon is cheaper than Lou Williams on DraftKings and the opposite is true on FanDuel. Coach Mike D’Antoni stuck with his normal eight-man rotation on Monday, and before sitting out the final five minutes, Gordon was able to provide value on his salary while Williams failed to do so on both platforms. Williams has spent all but 14 minutes this postseason on the court with Gordon, and in the minutes Gordon has played sans Williams (40 total), he’s averaged 0.9 DraftKings points per minute; he’s been the only Rocket with a positive effective field goal differential of +18.4 percent (per the On/Off tool) during that time.
Fast Break
Danny Green: He was benched almost immediately at the start of Game 1, and since Lee was the only starter to play in the fourth quarter, Green was limited to 21.7 minutes through three quarters. He fell shy of meeting expectation by 0.15 points on DraftKings, and he converted 2-of-9 3-point attempts, almost all of which were wide open. If Green is able to connect on a couple more 3-pointers this evening, exceeding expectations won’t be an issue.
Iman Shumpert: Shumpert was the sixth man in Game 1, and he played 14 minutes before coach Tyronn Lue emptied the bench for the final three minutes. J.R. Smith may have aggravated his fractured right thumb, but he’s not on the injury report. Shumpert is firmly in the Cavs’ nine-man rotation, and he costs $2,500 on DraftKings. Shumpert and Williams both profile as punt plays in case the Cavs are able to build a commanding lead and allow the starters to rest most of the final stanza.
Small Forwards
Studs
LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are arguably the keystones of this slate.
Leonard was on pace to play 40 minutes before sitting out the entire fourth quarter on Monday, and he led the Spurs in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks. James rested for two minutes at the end of the first and third quarters — his normal substitution pattern — and despite the Cavs leading by 22 points heading into the fourth quarter, James didn’t leave until less than four minutes remaining in the game.
This point from Monday’s breakdown is true again today:
The small forward position faces a dramatic drop-off in average postseason production on FanDuel after James and Leonard. The two appear to be the obvious pairing on FanDuel in cash games, which forces salary circumvention at the other positions and increases the likelihood of similar lineups.
James has averaged 58.5 DraftKings points per game in May at home over the past three seasons — two points above today’s salary-based expectation — and the main concern regarding his production is reduced minutes in a blowout. Leonard has similar blowout concerns following the 27-point loss on Monday, but the Spurs are once again implied to score at least 110 points at home (per the Vegas dashboard), and when implied to score between 105-115 points this season, Leonard has supplied solid production:
James’ case is much more simple:
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Value
P.J. Tucker may the be the Raptors’ only chance at limiting James in this series, and whether he comes off the bench or starts, he’ll likely continue to receive more minutes than starter DeMarre Carroll. Even Norman Powell has averaged more minutes than Carroll in the postseason. Tucker was baited into a countless supply of open shots in Game 1, and the Cavs seemed intent on forcing the ball out of the hands of Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, which led to those uncontested looks. Tucker costs $3,300 on DraftKings, and aside from one epic dud in the first round, he has provided at least 12.0 DraftKings points in the games he’s played at least 20 minutes this postseason.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza: In five games against the Spurs this season, he’s averaged a +9.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency. When Ariza’s shot is going in, he possesses the ability to easily exceed 30 DraftKings. As Leonard’s primary defender, Ariza’s playing time should continue to exceed 35. Whether or not he can continue his sterling outside shooting may be a hypothesis better tested in GPPs.
Power Forwards
Stud
Kevin Love has a propensity to disappear from the Cavs’ offense for stretches and thus hasn’t provided much value in GPPs. Only twice over the last 15 games has Love recorded more than 42.0 DraftKings points, and his usage rate has dropped from 25.5 percent during the regular season to 20.7 percent during the playoffs. Love has played all but nine minutes with James on the court this postseason, and during the Game 1 rout of the Raptors, he played fewer minutes than Tristan Thompson and Irving.
Love is the most expensive power forward or center on the slate, and his past performance against the Raptors, combined with his steady production, certainly warrants cash-game shares. He benefited from the occasional mismatch during the series opener on Monday, and if the Raptors remove Jonas Valanciunas from the starting lineup, Love or Thompson will be guarded by his replacement, which will likely create a mismatch in favor of the Cavs.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Ten of Ryan Anderson‘s 14 field goal attempts from Game 1 were classified as uncontested, and he hit more 3-pointers on Monday than he did during the entire first round. Anderson costs $4,200 on DraftKings, and he presently leads all power forwards in projected GPP ownership (per the Player Models). Fading him in tournaments may be the prudent move due to his outlier performance in Game 1: He was completely neutralized in the second half and recorded a block and a steal in the same game for the fifth time all season. When considering Anderson’s viability in cash games, his home/road track record is worth consulting:
Fast Break
Patrick Patterson: If he could hit an open shot, he’d likely cost more than $2,700 on DraftKings. Patterson has missed 3-of-12 3-pointers recorded as wide open this postseason, and he’s converted 29 percent of his shots overall. He played more minutes than Valanciunas and Carroll in the series opener, and he was one of several options used to guard James. His spot in the rotation appears safe; the question is when will he begin to make shots.
Centers
Stud
Love and Serge Ibaka have center-eligibility on DraftKings, and only two centers in FanDuel’s player pool– Dewayne Dedmon and Jakob Poeltl — possess Bargain Ratings greater than 44 percent. The center position doesn’t offer many options of the ‘stud’ category.
Values
Clint Capela proved too athletic for the Spurs’ frontline in Game 1, and with the help of countless Harden lobs, he was able to score 20 actual points in less than 25 minutes. Tristan Thompson costs $400 more than Capela on DraftKings, and Thompson costs $500 less on FanDuel. Thompson is expected to play more minutes since Capela splits playing time at center with Nene, and Thompson has been much more consistent in this postseason, leading all centers with an 85 percent Consistency mark over the past month.
Fast Break
Nene: He was ejected from Game 1, and in 16 minutes he yielded 14.75 DraftKings points. Recency bias will certainly play a factor as to whether Capela or Nene is selected, and in Nene’s case, he’s $200 cheaper than Capela on DraftKings and $1,200 cheaper on FanDuel.
Jakob Poeltl: It’s possible coach Dwane Casey starts Poeltl ahead of Valanciunas. I don’t know how true the reports are regarding this change, but if Valanciunas isn’t getting minutes opposite Thompson, he may get a DNP-CD. Pascal Siakam is another potential replacement, and he and Powell were reportedly seen wearing black warm-up jerseys, apparel typically reserved for starters.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
