Nine teams in action tonight are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set, so we likely won’t receive an update on some statuses until pre-game media availability. The other seven teams have had at least two days off, and the Pistons haven’t played since last Friday. The Pistons host the Raptors, who lost in Indiana last night and are playing their third game in four nights. Wednesday presents a murky eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s navigate.
Point Guards
Studs
Russell Westbrook‘s streak of seven consecutive triple-doubles has resulted in two games in which he failed to meet salary-based expectations, and the Thunder have been among the worst teams on the second night of back-to-backs this season for players projected to play at least 18 minutes (note the Nuggets and Raptors as well — two teams that played last night):
When the Thunder played in Memphis earlier this season, Westbrook failed to record any assists before being ejected in the third quarter. The Grizzlies were missing Mike Conley in that contest.
In seven contests in which the Thunder have played the second night of a back-to-back set on the road as underdogs, Westbrook has averaged 58.75 DraftKings points. When the Thunder have been implied to score no more than 102 points on the road, Westbrook’s average production has dropped to 53.42 DraftKings points — 58.25 if we remove the game in which Westbrook was ejected. Overall, the Thunder have provided the lowest average DraftKings Plus/Minus for teams implied to score no more than 107 points in a game this season, a filter that has resulted in Westbrook averaging 58.74 DraftKings points on 43.4 percent Consistency in 23 instances.
Westbrook’s salary has graciously dropped to $12,700 but remains unchanged on FanDuel, resting at $13,600. At this point in the season, how much do Vegas implied point totals concern you, and do you think trends no longer apply to Westbrook during his pursuit of 42 triple-doubles? There might be a guard in Houston vying for MVP consideration as well who costs roughly the same as Westbrook and is in a much better position.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Stephen Curry has played 26 total minutes with Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala on the bench the entire season. He gets a solid matchup against the Suns, and the last six PG starters to face the Suns have produced no less than 41.7 FanDuel points. Curry’s salary-implied point total on FanDuel is 41.76 points. All point guards projected to play at least 30 minutes against the Suns this season have averaged 38.2 FanDuel points, and in Curry’s three games against them, he provided 32.7, 47.2, and 35.4 FanDuel points. The bookend performances are encouraging, but all three occurred before mid December — roughly the point Curry reverted to his 2014-15 MVP form.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay remain cheap on FanDuel, and we likely won’t get an update on Jameer Nelson or Will Barton until later. Assuming Nelson and Barton remain sidelined, Murray and Mudiay will again be viable value plays. They’ve alternated minutes and quality performances with Murray acting as the starting point guard. They both cost $3,700 on FanDuel, and Mudiay costs $400 less on DraftKings, where Murray adds shooting guard eligibility.
Ish Smith is still the starting point guard with Reggie Jackson unavailable. His salary has steadily climbed on FanDuel to $5,500, but with a four-day break, he’s in a good spot facing a Raptors team playing their second straight road game. Since Murray and Mudiay both undercut Smith in salary, Smith may offer more value in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) due to a potential ownership gap, which can be viewed in the Ownership dashboard moments after the games start.
Fast Break
Isaiah Thomas: In three games against the Cavs this season, Thomas averaged a +9.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus and scored 30, 31, and 31 actual points in each game.
Kyrie Irving: In the last seven games with a positive pace differential, Irving has exceeded salary-based expectations each time on DraftKings. On the season, he’s provided a +6.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 77.4 percent Consistency in that situation.
Kemba Walker: In three games against the Heat this year, Walker provided 36.3, 40.3, and 44.5 DraftKings points. His usage rate of 32.0 percent in those games is his second-highest mark against any team this season.
Tyler Johnson: He ranks second among all players this season in Consistency on the road at 73.5 percent, second to only Andre Iguodala for players with at least 30 road games played.
Shooting Guards
Studs
James Harden will play versus the Nuggets tonight. When the Rockets faced them in a home-and-home set in March, Harden sliced them up for 73.5 and 72.8 DraftKings points. He’s likely still dealing with a wrist problem on his shooting hand, and he missed the last game with an illness. Of the illness, Harden said,
I really couldn’t move, couldn’t talk, couldn’t speak because of my throat, my body was shaking, just the chills, it wasn’t good. I’m happy to be okay and be able to move and get back out here.
The Nuggets-Thunder’s Vegas Over/Under of 239 is presently 16 points higher than that of the next game, and Harden’s salary has decreased to $12,100 on FanDuel following three straight games in which he failed to meet salary-based expectations. Since the Rockets are a near-lock for the No. 3 seed, this game is rather meaningless on their behalf. However, the Nuggets are competing for a playoff spot, which will at least uphold the integrity of the playoff race and should generate a competitive match. Harden’s playing time and aggressiveness remains to be seen, but after four straight misfires on his part against some top-level defenses, this is a spot where Harden can add to his MVP resume against a team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, allowing 112.1 points per 100 possessions.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Klay Thompson has been nearly automatic with a positive pace differential this year:
Two of those occurred against the Suns, and Thompson recorded 34.0 and 44.8 DraftKings points in 33 and 34 minutes. When Durant, Green, and Iguodala have been off the court this season, Thompson has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute (per our On/Off tool), which is on par with his yearly average.
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Values
When searching for a cash play, look at Gary Harris. He’s played at least 35 minutes in 12 of the last 15 games, and in the last two games against the Rockets, he averaged 37.0 DraftKings points despite being the primary guard on Harden. He’s done more distributing the last two games with Nelson and Barton unavailable — a likely scenario this evening. When the Nuggets have been implied to score at least 110 points this season, Harris has led the Nuggets with a +4.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 83.3 percent Consistency.
Lou Williams and Eric Gordon won’t go away. Both now cost $4,600 on FanDuel, and they will both come off the bench in deference to Troy Williams. Gordon proved why he is the more reliable cash-game option in the previous start, undercutting the point I made previously when comparing Williams and Gordon. Williams has struggled with his 3-point shot lately, and both are highly dependent on scoring. It’s good that the Rockets are implied for a slate-best 123.5 points tonight.
Fast Break
J.J. Redick: Austin Rivers missed the past two games and all but eight minutes of the win on March 29th. During that span, Redick played 33.3, 30.2, and 37.6 minutes. He costs the same as Lou Williams and Eric Gordon on FanDuel, which should drastically reduce his ownership.
J.R. Smith: He’s made 19-of-33 3-pointers in the last four games. Since Avery Bradley typically guards Kyrie when they play, Smith will likely be guarded by Isaiah Thomas (per our Matchups tool), creating a mismatch worthy of exploitation in GPPs.
Small Forwards
Studs
Prior to last night’s win, coach Tyronn Lue expected to play all his players in both games of the back-to-back set. That includes LeBron James, who played 22 minutes and 15 seconds in the first half last night and 37 overall. If the Cavs win tonight, they will move ahead of the Celtics in the standings and hold a 3-1 season series lead, ensuring them the tie-breaker. However, they are playing their fifth game in seven nights. Per Brian Windhorst of ESPN:
When the Cavs are on the road for a back-to-back they allow 113 points per 100 possessions and get outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions.
All of James’ numbers are better no matter how you break them up. He averages one more rebound and two more assists with one day of rest vs. back-to-backs, and his free throw percentage is five points higher with a day off.
It’s more glaring with [Kyrie] Irving. He averages 21.7 points on the second night of back-to-backs and 26.1 points when he has one or two days rest. His 3-point percentage jumps from 33 percent to 41 percent with a day or two of rest.
Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson average more rebounds with rest, Kyle Korver averages two more points a game, Iman Shumpert‘s steals jump by 30 percent, and so on down the line.
The Trends tool backs up the stats when the Cavs are playing the second leg of a back-to-back on the road:
That said, James has been very consistent lately, and he’s shattered poor historical trends against the Pistons and Pacers recently. If he gets the minutes, he’s good for at least 50 DraftKings points. With Thompson ruled out, James may need to see minutes at center.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Kawhi Leonard butted heads with Mike Conley in last night’s overtime victory. He played 40 minutes and LaMarcus Aldridge played 41 minutes. On the second night of a back-to-back set against the Lakers, the most risk-averse path is to fade the Spurs unless coach Gregg Popovich personally shows you his DFS lineup with Leonard in it. And even then, I’d question it. The Spurs are playing their second game in a stretch of four games in five nights, so rest should be expected, leaving Leonard as a pure GPP option.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Matt Barnes could remain in the starting lineup, and with Iguodala out, Barnes is expected to step into a larger role and more minutes. He costs $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel. There’s not much in the way of value at small forward presently, but that could change depending on what happens with the Nuggets, Mavs, and Grizzlies.
Fast Break
Rodney McGruder: Since Dion Waiters went down with an ankle injury, McGruder has led the Heat with a +4.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 25.9 minutes per game.
Wilson Chandler: When the Nuggets have faced an opponent with a positive pace differential, Chandler has averaged a +10.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season on 80 percent Consistency. Should Barton or Faried get ruled out, Chandler should inherit additional minutes in what is projected to be the highest-scoring affair of the night.
Power Forwards
Studs
LaMarcus Aldridge may be in the best spot among the power forwards except for the potential for mass resting tonight. Kevin Love will likely see extended minutes on the second night of a back-to-back with Thompson ruled out, and I’ll touch on Blake Griffin in the center section. Aldridge is the cheapest of the three, but he also offers the most risk. It may be best to spend down at power forward this evening in cash games.
Values
No Draymond Green means David West could benefit as long as he isn’t rested. West and Kevon Looney cost the minimum on DraftKings, where West offers a 98 percent Bargain Rating, and Looney started in the games Green missed earlier this season. Looney was limited to 13.5 minutes in those starts as Durant was active, and in the start against the Spurs on national television last month, Looney contributed 9.5 DraftKings points in 17.2 minutes.
Channing Frye will likely start at center this evening, and he costs $3,700 on FanDuel. When Frye has been on the court with LeBron and Thompson has been on the bench, Frye has averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute, which is 0.1 points per minute more than his yearly mark.
Fast Break
Julius Randle: Give Randle a negative Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’ll typically provide 33.5 DraftKings points. In three games against the Spurs this season, Randle supplied 33.8, 39.0, and 25.5 DraftKings points. He was capped at 28 minutes in the most recent game — a 21-point loss.
Centers
Studs
When the Clippers faced the Mavs two weeks ago, I wrote this:
DeAndre Jordan has averaged 39.9 DraftKings points in the last nine games against the Mavericks. His salary-implied point total today is 31.15 DraftKings points. Conversely, Chris Paul has averaged a -5.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last eight games against the Mavericks, and Blake Griffin has been close to neutral in his five games.
In that March 23rd game, Jordan provided 43.5 DraftKings points, Paul recorded a -4.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Griffin provided a -7.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 39 minutes. Jordan facing a team with a rebound rate worse than 49 percent has resulted in immense value:
Values
Clint Capela played well in consecutive games against the Nuggets on March 18th and 20th, posting 29.6 and 32.8 FanDuel points. When he’s at home, he becomes even more valuable:
The Mavs went ahead and listed five players questionable. Coach Rick Carlisle added this:
There’s a chance we’re going to be at full strength. Dirk is feeling better, and he’ll be most likely a game-time decision. But the signs are good at this point.
Nerlens Noel remains $4,800 on DraftKings, but it’s possible Devin Harris and J.J. Barea get the night off, which would divert attention to Yogi Ferrell. If Dirk Nowitzki sits for the second straight contest, Noel will be a shoe-in to start, and he posted 32.0 DraftKings points in 20 minutes last night.
Fast Break
Al Horford: He ranks third among all players this season with a 78.1 percent Consistency Rating in home games. He’s been solid in the last 10 games, averaging a +9.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and over the last month he’s posted 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
Jonas Valanciunas: He has historically dominated in the matchup against Andre Drummond, who’ll fall for a Valanciunas pump fake like no other. In his last 10 games, Valanciunas has provided a +6.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
