The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday presents a two-game slate that begins at 6pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Stud
John Wall returns home after failing to meet salary-based expectations in two straight games in Atlanta; he has now recorded a negative Plus/Minus in three straight road games against the Hawks. When the Wizards have been favored at home this year, Wall has averaged more than today’s salary-implied point total on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
Wall has averaged a neutral DraftKings Plus/Minus in this series, but he leads the Wizards in usage rate, assist rate, and per-minute production. The Wizards are presently implied to score a slate-best 109.25 points (per the Vegas dashboard), and when opposing guard Dennis Schroder has been on the court, Wall has converted 54.2 percent of his field goal attempts. Wall leads all guards on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and even though he struggled to achieve value on the road, he averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and likely would have paid back his salary in Game 3 if he wasn’t limited to 31.6 minutes.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Isaiah Canaan played 34 minutes in Game 4, including all but three minutes in the second half. Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams were complete busts in the loss, and Cameron Payne was inactive. Now that Rajon Rondo has officially been ruled out tonight, Canaan will likely start as coach Fred Hoiberg proclaimed on Monday. Canaan costs $3,800 on DraftKings and $1,800 on FanDuel.
Poor performances from Grant and Carter-Williams should offer some assurance in regard to Canaan’s minutes. How he performs is another issue, but with coach Hoiberg uncertain who will act as the backup point guard, Canaan may approach 35 minutes for the second straight game. At an average of 0.55 FanDuel points per minute this season, Canaan would require just 11 minutes to meet salary-based expectations tonight.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder: He was whistled for three fouls in the first nine minutes of Game 4 and did not return in the first half. Schroder scored all 18 of his points in the second half, and he averaged a +8.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus in the first three games of the series. In the last 10 instances in which the Hawks have been road underdogs, Schroder has averaged 38.88 DraftKings points. The popular pairing at PG today will likely be Wall and Canaan, leaving Schroder and Isaiah Thomas as the pivots. Schroder comes with a little more risk since coach Mike Budenholzer has been known to bench Schroder in favor of no-point-guard lineups.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Bradley Beal has struggled to convert shots this postseason, but he’s attempted the fourth-most shots and third-most 3-pointers on a per-game basis. Per player tracking data on NBA.com, Beal’s converted just 3-of-17 3-pointers classified as wide open in this series. Despite the cold streak, Beal has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of the first four games and recorded at least 40 DraftKings points in two games.
Shooting guard is populated with the most players projected to play at least 30 minutes (per the Player Models), and Beal is the most expensive among them. Beal and Wall are highly correlated in terms of fantasy production, and Wall has been dominant at home this year. Stacking the two in the game with the highest Vegas total may be the popular move, especially since the Wizards haven’t received much production out of the rest of the starters.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Gerald Green will start at power forward for the third straight game. He played around 20 minutes in the first two starts, and he costs $3,100 on FanDuel — a salary that coincides with his DFS production from Game 3. Marcus Smart has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games, and he offers a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Green will likely be the popular SG2 on FanDuel, and Smart could go overlooked on DraftKings at $5,100. He costs $500 less than Avery Bradley, who’s averaged a -1.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last 10 games. Each of their ownership numbers can be tracked at the DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock.
Fast Break
Dwyane Wade: When Wade has had at least two days of rest this season, he’s averaged a +4.56 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 71.4 percent Consistency. He was close to a non-factor in Game 4, recording a -3.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 38 minutes. With Rondo off the court this postseason, Wade has been limited to 0.71 DraftKings points per minute. That said, his regular season non-Rondo production was more encouraging, as he averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and a team-best 31.6 percent usage rate.
Small Forwards
Stud
Jimmy Butler played 45.8 minutes in Game 4. When asked about playing time over the rest of the series, Butler said that he’ll rest during stoppages in the game like timeouts and fouls. It sounds like he’ll play another 45 minutes tonight, which means he would require 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in order to meet salary-based expectation. Butler played at least 40 minutes in the three non-blowouts, and when Rondo has been off the court, Butler has recorded 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and a team-best 21.2 percent assist rate (per the On/Off tool).
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Taurean Prince has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight starts on FanDuel, and his defensive acumen has allowed coach Mike Budenholzer to bench Thabo Sefolosha much of the postseason. Prince has played between 28-32 minutes in every game in this series, and he costs no more than $4,300 on either site. He profiles as an adequate and cheap SF2 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore: He’s recorded a 100 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel over the past month, the highest mark at his position on this slate. Bazemore may have played over his head in Game 4, exceeding 30 FanDuel points for the first time in close to a month. Still, over the last 17 games, Bazemore hasn’t recorded less than 14.0 FanDuel points.
Power Forwards
Studs
Paul Millsap has attempted at least nine free throws in three consecutive games for the second time in his career. Three of the players tasked with guarding him — Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, and Kelly Oubre — rank first, second, and third in personal fouls per game among all postseason players.
With Dwight Howard off the court in this postseason, Millsap has provided 1.39 DraftKings points per minute and a +5.6 assist rate differential. Howard played a series-high 30 minutes in Game 4, and Millsap was on pace to underperform relative to salary-based expectations in the win until he took over in the fourth quarter.
Like many of the high-priced studs on the slate, Millsap lacks any peers in terms of projected floor and ceiling. He faces a team that has been the most benevolent to opposing power forwards (projected minimum 20 minutes):
Millsap: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Bobby Portis costs $3,500 on DraftKings, and Ersan Ilyasova costs $3,000. Portis’ production and playing time have wavered, while Ilyasova has consistently played between 15-20 minutes during each of the first four games of the postseason. Ilyasova is on the radar now after a salary decrease of $1,700 since the series opener, and Portis’ immense range of outcomes suits him well for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs); he’s played 29 and nine minutes in consecutive games, and he falls under the Fred Hoiberg Uncertainty Rotation Clause.
Fast Break
Nikola Mirotic: He’s been consistent for three straight games, scoring at least 11 actual points and grabbing at least six rebounds in at least 27 minutes. He’s also missed a ton of 3-pointers, but among Bulls frontcourt players, he ranks third in minutes per game.
Centers
Stud
Al Horford is one of two centers presently projected to play at least 30 minutes, and he’s averaged a +9.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus in this series. When the Celtics have been favored at the TD Garden, Horford has led the Celtics in Plus/Minus and Consistency:
With Amir Johnson off the court in the last two games, Horford has led the Celtics with 1.23 DraftKings points per minute, and when equipped with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus at home this year, Horford has averaged 37.36 DraftKings points and an 85.2 percent Consistency Rating. Excluding Millsap, who has dual eligibility on DraftKings, Horford leads all centers on this slate in projected floor and an assist rate of 27.1 percent.
Value
Marcin Gortat scored two actual points in Game 4 and still exceeded his salary-based expectation by 10.65 FanDuel points. He costs less than $6,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s one of two centers on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating greater than 33 percent. Because Ian Mahinmi is sidelined and Morris and Smith are constantly in foul trouble, Gortat’s playing time is relatively safe. However, when the Hawks’ Howard has been on the court, Gortat’s usage rate has deflated to a subpar 8.1 percent in this series.
Fast Break
Cristiano Felicio: Robin Lopez was stymied in two straight games and played off the court after the Celtics adjusted their starting lineup. Felicio played more minutes than Lopez in Game 3 but was limited to 10.3 minutes in Game 4 due to foul trouble. Felicio does a better job handling the Thomas-Horford pick-and-roll, and if coach Fred Hoiberg decides to play Felicio over Lopez and Joffrey Lauvergne, Felicio may easily provide value at $2,400 on DraftKings.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
