Wednesday presents a three-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. All three matchups include the top teams in pace during the first game of the postseason. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Stephen Curry, and Damian Lillard are all options on the same day for the second time this week. According to the Ownership dashboard, Lillard provided the most leverage in DraftKings guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) due to his depressed ownership. The other three guards all shared similar ownership on Sunday.
Among the quartet of high-priced guards, Wall possesses the best Opponent Plus/Minus:
Wall destroyed the Hawks’ defense in Game 1, and he outscored the other three guards in DraftKings points. Wall has historically been more productive at home, and when the Wizards have been favored at the Verizon Center, Wall has averaged 51.44 DraftKings points, a +6.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and 74.3 percent Consistency.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Westbrook was held in check by Patrick Beverley on Sunday, and Westbrook’s salary has decreased to $12,500 on FanDuel for the first time since February 28th. Only once this season has Westbrook failed to score more than 40.7 FanDuel points in consecutive games. Following games in which he’s failed to record at least 40 FanDuel points, Westbrook has averaged 61.66 FanDuel points. Sunday marked the first time this season that Westbrook recorded fewer than 51 DraftKings points when given at least two days of rest, and he’s averaged 67.64 DraftKings points under such circumstances.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Curry is the cheapest option of the four guards on both platforms. Kevin Durant may be sidelined, and in the 19 games Durant missed this season, Curry averaged 48.03 DraftKings points and a +5.2 percent assist rate differential (per the On/Off tool). Curry’s salary-implied point total of 40.65 undercuts his production sans Durant, but we may not know Durant’s status until media availability 90 minutes prior to tip. The Warriors are presently favored by 13.5 points (per the Vegas dashboard), and there’s also a chance Shaun Livingston doesn’t play after he suffered a hand injury. If Durant doesn’t play, Curry will offer solid value in all contest formats, as he’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute with Durant on the bench. Even if Durant does play, Curry will retain his profile as a cash-game option, as he’s averaged 45.38 DraftKings points when the Warriors have been favored by at least 10 points this season.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Lillard possesses the lowest projected ceiling and floor among this group of point guards, yet he is priced as the third-most expensive option. He’ll likely be guarded by Klay Thompson for the second straight game (per our Matchups page), but that did not deter Lillard from posting 50.75 DraftKings points in 39.4 minutes. According to the player tracking data on NBA.com, Lillard converted 8-of-14 contested shots, which may be difficult to replicate.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Patrick Beverley has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in four of the last five games, and he’s the cheapest available projected starting point guard on the slate. He escaped foul trouble in the first game of the postseason, and that hasn’t been an overwhelming issue for him this year. However, since Westbrook drew the most personal fouls during the regular season among all NBA guards, Beverley may be too risky for cash games. He did average 4.3 fouls per game — or roughly 5.1 per 36 minutes — against the Thunder during the regular season.
Brandon Jennings costs $2,500 on FanDuel, signifying a drop of $1,600 from the first game. While Wall should be penciled in for close to 40 minutes, in the off chance something awry occurs, Jennings and Bradley Beal would be the lone facilitators remaining for the Wizards. Jennings is purely a punt option at his reduced salary since you can expect him to receive 10-15 minutes on a normal night.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder: He was the sixth-most expensive point guard available on Sunday, and his average ownership across three tournaments was 1.46 percent. If you’re seeking an ownership play, you’ve located it. Per the Trends tool, Schroder has been extremely productive as a road underdog:
Shooting Guards
Stud
The Thunder’s defensive scheme against the Rockets in Game 1 was to stay home on 3-point shooters and switch pick-and-rolls — negating Andre Roberson, who was the primary defender for four of James Harden‘s 13 made field goals. Harden found himself in single coverage against the Thunder’s bigs often, and if the Thunder deploy a similar defensive game plan, Harden will be the elite stud of the slate. He was limited to 34.3 minutes in the blowout win on Sunday, but he recorded a 43.8 percent usage rate, aided by the Thunder’s unwillingness to double team Harden.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Victor Oladipo costs $4,900 on FanDuel for the first time ever in our database. Had he cost $4,900 on Sunday, he would have met salary-based expectations in a game in which he made 1-of-12 shots from the field. Oladipo will likely play more minutes than the cheaper Lou Williams and Eric Gordon, and shooting guards facing the Rockets this season have averaged a +3.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 9.1 percent average ownership.
In five games against the Blazers this season, Ian Clark recorded 33, 35, 7, 8, and 18 DraftKings points. He costs $2,500 on DraftKings, and there’s a chance Durant, Livington, and Matt Barnes are unavailable.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum: He’ll likely once again be guarded by Curry. It worked out well in the first game to the tune of 52.1 FanDuel points in 40.8 minutes. McCollum is officially probable to play after suffering a sprained left ankle, and he costs $100 more than Beal.
Bradley Beal: Beal has recorded the lowest Upside mark over the past month among shooting guards on the slate, but he rates first among projected starting shooting guards in Consistency on FanDuel. Even after he failed to convert 9-of-11 3-pointers on Sunday, he was still able to exceed salary-based expectations in 39.2 minutes.
Small Forwards
Stud
Kevin Durant costs nearly twice as much as the next closest small forward. He’s also questionable with a calf strain, and we may not get official word on his availability until well after lineup lock. His uncertainty limits his viability to GPPs, and it increases value for Curry, Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Draymond Green, all of whom are priced as if Durant will play. A Durant fade makes it easier to pay up at other positions, but the other SF options aren’t outstanding.
Values
Evan Turner was inserted into the starting lineup for Game 1 and produced well enough to likely remain the starting small forward tonight. It hasn’t been confirmed, but over the last eight games, Turner has averaged a +7.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He presently leads all small forwards in projected ownership in FanDuel GPPs; fading him is understandable given his volatile play this season.
Andre Iguodala will benefit massively if Durant and Barnes are unable to suit up tonight. Even if they play, Iguodala will likely be asked to play close to 30 minutes for the second straight playoff game. His salary is cheaper on DraftKings, where he’s shooting guard-eligible only. In the game Durant missed this year, Iguodala registered a team-best +3.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 28.4 minutes.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant: Among players priced below $3,000 on DraftKings, Grant claims the highest projected playing time in Player Models. He was the first reserve off the bench on Sunday for the Thunder and played 27 minutes, which may have been slightly inflated due to garbage time.
Power Forwards
Stud
Draymond Green costs $7,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he missed out on a triple-double by one assist on Sunday in 37 minutes. Power forwards facing the Blazers this season have provided the second-highest FanDuel Plus/Minus when projected to play at least 18 minutes:
Green’s salary implied-point total is less than five points higher than the average power forward production against the Blazers this season, and in four of the five games against them, Green provided at least 37.9 FanDuel points. He’s the true stud on the slate at his position given the alternatives, and that’s amplified by the potential absence of Durant.
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Markieff Morris‘ salary-implied point total is roughly 10 points below his average production in the last nine games against the Hawks:
Morris played 38 minutes on Saturday and picked up extra time, as third-string center Jason Smith suffered a knee injury. He may not approach 40 minutes for the second straight game, but he’s underpriced relative to his track record.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap: He was held in check by Morris in the first game, and he failed to record a block or steal for the eighth time all season while recording a season-low two rebounds. The first game appears to be an outlier performance on Millsap’s part. He costs roughly the same as Draymond, which should depress his ownership.
Millsap: DFS Scouting Report
Centers
Stud
Dwight Howard is the most expensive center for the second time in three days. As cautioned in Sunday’s breakdown, coach Mike Budenholzer will employ a deep rotation. Howard was limited to 29 minutes in a playoff game for the fifth time in his career in which he did not foul out or get whistled for five fouls.
Howard costs $6,500 or less on DraftKings for the sixth time in our database, and centers facing the Wizards this season have averaged the fourth-highest DraftKings Plus/Minus at +4.02 but the 20th-worst Consistency rating. In five games against the Wizards this season, Howard averaged 14.6 rebounds and recorded four double-doubles. Coach Scott Brooks has openly talked about intentionally fouling Howard if the opportunity arises, but doing so with Ian Mahinmi unavailable and Smith recovering from a knee injury would leave the Wizards shallow in the frontcourt. Howard carries plenty of downside, but his salary on DraftKings is enticing enough to have high exposures in GPPs.
Values
Nene has converted 30-of-38 shots in five games against the Thunder this season and has averaged a +7.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 19.4 minutes. The matchup clearly suits him, and he costs $3,900 on DraftKings. Among centers on the slate, Nene claims the highest projected ownership, and his success against the Thunder, combined with coach Mike D’Antoni’s strict eight-man rotation, will make Nene the popular value option of the slate.
Fast Break
Clint Capela: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 consecutive home games. For the season, he’s averaged a +6.13 DraftKings Plus/Minus at the Toyota Center. He’ll certainly receive more playing time than Nene, but Capela also costs more than Marcin Gortat, who played more minutes than Capela in the series opener. Capela is an adequate pivot since he ranks second on the slate at his position with 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. However, he doesn’t offer a significant Upside advantage over Gortat.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
