The Bulls, Pacers, and Heat are all competing for the final two spots in the postseason. The Celtics can clinch the top seed in the East with a win or a Cavs loss, and the Raptors and Wizards are locked into home court advantage in the first round. The Jazz and Clippers are playing for home-court advantage against each other in the first round, and the rest of the Western Conference seedings are locked.
The Hawks and Timberwolves are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and the Mavs and Nuggets are playing their sixth game in nine days.
Here’s what we currently know:
- Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni plans to play his regulars in the first three quarters only.
- Clippers coach Doc Rivers intends to play his team as he normally would with home court advantage on the line; the Jazz play 90 minutes before the Clippers tip off, and their result could be known by halftime of the Clippers’ contest.
- Raptors coach Dwane Casey planned to play everyone and limit his regulars like a preseason game, but DeMar DeRozan has since been downgraded.
- Celtics coach Brad Stevens does not plan on resting his players.
- Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is preparing for the injured guys (Dion Waiters, Luke Babbitt, and Josh McRoberts) to be used in case of emergency.
- Spurs coach Gregg Popovich doesn’t plan on resting anyone, but it’s unclear if the regulars will play full minutes.
- Grizzlies coach David Fizdale said, “Obviously, we have a ton of respect for [coach Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks]. How we play in that game [matters]. But I can’t waste one minute trying to prepare for Dallas when we’ve got the Spurs [coming up].”
These are all subject to change, as is everything in this chaotic slate.
The Nets will have nine players available; the Bucks, Hawks, and Knicks will have 10 players; the Mavs, Kings, Nuggets, Pelicans, Pistons are expected to continue to prioritize minutes for the younger players; and the Hawks are resting all of their starters now that they’ve clinched the No. 5 seed.
The final day of the regular season offers a 14-game slate that kicks off at 8pm ET — 10 of the games tip off at lock, and all the games that impact one another will be played simultaneously. Let’s see how the positions stack up before this breakdown becomes obsolete.
Point Guards
Studs
Straight from coach Doc Rivers: “We will play our regular rotation against Sacramento on Wednesday.” As mentioned above, the Clippers will likely know the outcome of the Jazz-Spurs game by halftime since the Clippers tip off 90 minutes after the Jazz. Chris Paul offers a 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he may face his former protégé, Darren Collison. Paul has recorded at least 47.75 DraftKings points in five straight games, and over the last two games, he’s played no more than 31 minutes. When the Clippers played the Kings on March 26th, Paul provided 40.5 DraftKings points in 31.15 minutes in a loss after they were up 18 points with close to five minutes remaining. If you assume the Spurs will limit the minutes for all their players — as they did in Monday’s loss — then it can be inferred that the Jazz stand a good chance of winning. If the Jazz win, then the Clippers must win to earn home-court advantage. In three games against the Kings this season, Paul has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. Since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Values
The last 10 players with point guard eligibility to face the Nets have all exceeded salary-based expectations, and none of them have recorded fewer than 29 DraftKings points when projected to play at least 18 minutes. Jerian Grant was one of those players, and his salary-implied point total on DraftKings is 22.65 today. Rajon Rondo is presently a game-time decision, but with the Nets resting Brook Lopez and Jeremy Lin, it makes sense that Rondo would take the night off. Grant has helped reduced the workload for Jimmy Butler over the last three games, and Grant produced 11 assists in Monday’s win. He’s recorded no fewer than 28.1 FanDuel points in three straight games.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Jamal Murray, and T.J. McConnell are young guys on teams eliminated from postseason contention. Dinwiddie is point guard-eligible on FanDuel and shooting guard- and small forward-eligible on DraftKings. Murray has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games with Jameer Nelson sidelined, and McConnell has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 straight games while averaging a +5.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus. McConnell possesses the safest floor due to his rock-solid playing time, but he’s also the most expensive of the three. Dinwiddie is expected to start (per our Matchups page), but with Archie Goodwin on the roster, coach Kenny Atkinson may toss a curveball our way. Murray appears locked into at least 30 minutes with Emmanuel Mudiay or Malik Beasley as the backup point guard.
Fast Break
Ish Smith: He’s the only actual point guard on the roster, and based on his production over the past eight games with Reggie Jackson unavailable, Smith is considerably underpriced. Smith will likely be capped around 30 minutes, which limits his upside, and if coach Stan Van Gundy decides to start Darrun Hilliard instead, it’ll be time to abandon ship.
Jeff Teague: In two games against his former team this season, Teague produced 42.2 and 31.8 FanDuel points. The Pacers need to win to secure a spot in the postseason, and they are playing at home, where Teague has averaged 36.36 FanDuel points when the Pacers have been implied to score at least 110 points this season.
Shooting Guards
Stud
The ‘studs’ on this slate aren’t expected to play their normal minutes: James Harden may play in only the first three quarters, DeMar DeRozan has been downgraded to doubtful due to an illness, Klay Thompson played 27 minutes one game before being rested, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bradley Beal have already been ruled out.
Values
Caris LeVert played at least 25 minutes in three straight games for the first time this season, and the Nets will have nine players available. If coach Kenny Atkinson plays them all the same amount of minutes, each Net can expect around 26 minutes. If Atkinson gives his younger players a longer leash, LeVert could easily approach 30 minutes. Over the last three games, LeVert has averaged a +8.54 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he scaled all the way up to 27 minutes in Monday’s loss.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Josh Richardson, and Justin Holiday all provide a Bargain Rating of at least 86 percent on FanDuel. Luwawu-Cabarrot has averaged a +12.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last eight games. In those games, he’s played at least 32 minutes. In the last four games, he’s taken on more of a facilitator role with Sergio Rodriguez out for the year. Richardson’s minutes are as steady as you’ll find at shooting guard. The Heat may have only nine players available, and Richardson has played at least 36 minutes in five straight games. Holiday has joined the Knicks’ starting lineup with Carmelo Anthony sidelined, and it’s resulted in at least 21.0 FanDuel points in four straight games while playing between 21 and 40 minutes.
Fast Break
Ben McLemore: Among players with at least 20 games in April since the 2014-15 season, McLemore claims the best FanDuel Plus/Minus at +7.22 on 66.7 percent Consistency. If the requisite players sit — Tyreke Evans, Arron Afflalo, and Garrett Temple — McLemore could start and provide decent value at a sub-$4,000 price tag.
Gary Harris: He missed out on a triple-double last night by two rebounds and two assists, and the Nuggets will again be shorthanded with Danilo Gallinari, Jameer Nelson, Will Barton, and Kenneth Faried unavailable. Harris also missed out on a triple-double by three rebounds and one assist two games before that. Due to the plethora of value plays tonight, Harris may make more sense as a GPP pivot.
Small Forwards
Studs
Jimmy Butler and Paul George are both competing for a playoff bid. George has recorded a 93 percent Consistency mark over the last month, and both the Bulls and Pacers are currently implied to win by at least 10 points at home. George has less competition in the starting lineup since Butler will contend with Dwyane Wade and potentially Rondo or Grant for touches. George is also cheaper on FanDuel and DraftKings, and the Bulls already showed that they will rest Butler in the closing minutes of a blowout loss, as they limited Butler to 30.8 minutes on Monday. George and the Pacers weren’t really tested by the Sixers on Monday, and the Hawks’ second unit already proved it could defeat the Cavs. Butler clearly claims the superior matchup with a position-high +4.67 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. The only question is if he can get enough minutes to meet his salary-implied point total. It’s apparent George is intent on getting to the postseason, as he attempted eight shots in the first quarter of Monday’s win and has averaged 54.4 DraftKings points per game in April.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Brandon Ingram attempted a career-high 16 field goal attempts last night with D’Angelo Russell out of the lineup. He also contributed a team-high six assists in less than 30 minutes. Since the Lakers play on zero days rest tonight, it’s unclear if or how much Ingram will be limited. Russell’s status has yet to be updated, but if he doesn’t play, Ingram will deserve consideration once more as a solid value play, as he’s been the last month.
Michael Beasley is listed as the starter for tonight’s finale. He may still be dealing with the lingering effects of a hyperextended left knee that forced him to miss a month of the season, and over the last five games he ranks second on the team with 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He costs $3,200 on DraftKings, and in the game against the Spurs when Antetokounmpo was limited to nine minutes due to an illness, Beasley recorded 48.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. When just Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jabari Parker are off the floor, Beasley leads the team with a 30.5 percent usage rate.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre: Otto Porter will technically play, but his minutes will be limited. That’ll open up playing time for Oubre, who has averaged a +6.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last 10 games on 90 percent Consistency.
Power Forwards
Stud
James Johnson plays every position for the Heat, and if you’re digging for players with a solid base of minutes, Johnson should be included in that player pool. He’s played at least 36 minutes in three straight games — all as the starting power forward. The Wizards are one of the worst teams at defending opposing power forwards, and they’ll be without John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Markieff Morris tonight. When Johnson faced the Wizards on April 8th, he provided 35.7 FanDuel points and missed out on a triple-double by five assists.
If Kevin Love plays, he might have to reprise his role as the go-to guy for the second straight game. LeBron James has been confirmed out, and Kyrie Irving‘s status is unclear. The Cavs might have the services of Edy Tavares, but since they’ve waived Larry Sanders, Love may need to play full minutes in the frontcourt. Coach Tyronn Lue said prior to the last game that they intended to win it. If he declares the same tonight and starts Love, it’s possible Love provides significant value at discounted ownership, which can be tracked on our Ownership dashboard shortly after lock.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Values
The Nets will be without Jeremy Lin, Brook Lopez, and four other reserves. That leaves them with nine players available. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has exceeded 40 FanDuel points in two straight games, and he played a season-high 37 minutes on Monday. Even at a conservative minute projection of 30, Hollis-Jefferson will deserve consideration in GPPs: He played 30 against the Bulls two games ago and recorded 41.9 FanDuel points.
Juancho Hernangomez, Cheick Diallo, Maurice Ndour, Dwight Powell, and Skal Labissiere are but a handful of the young power forwards expected to receive extended playing time tonight. Hernangomez started the second half last night and poured in 25.5 DraftKings points in 26.5 minutes; he costs the minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel. Diallo exploded for 34.2 FanDuel points in 27 minutes last night, and assuming Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins don’t play in the finale, Diallo should receive significant minutes. Ndour has started three of the past four games, and in two of those starts, he exceeded 31.0 DraftKings points. As long as Carmelo and Kristaps Porzingis remain out tonight, Ndour will warrant consideration as a pivot option. Powell could start tonight since Dirk Nowitzki, Harrison Barnes, and Wesley Matthews didn’t make the trip, and Labissiere will likely continue to start — he provides a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Thad Young: Over the past eight games, Young has averaged a +9.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus and shaken off the lingering wrist injury that derailed his post-All-Star performance.
Centers
Studs
Hassan Whiteside played more than 35 minutes in consecutive games for the third time this season, and centers facing the Wizards this season have averaged a +4.01 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Whiteside has exceeded salary-based expectations in 15 of the last 16 games at American Airlines Arena while averaging 45.41 DraftKings points. Two games ago, against a Wizards team at full strength, Whiteside recorded 54.4 FanDuel points in 37.45 minutes.
Karl-Anthony Towns is going to finish the season with the second-most total minutes played, behind teammate Andrew Wiggins (assuming neither rest tonight in the fifth game in seven nights). Both are presently projected for the most minutes in the Player Models, and Towns is the third-most expensive option on the slate. Per our Trends tool, Towns has been exceptional on the road with zero days rest over the past two seasons:
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Value
The bargain bin at every position is filled with potential candidates, and for centers that includes the likes of Boban Marjanovic, Justin Hamilton, Greg Monroe, Mason Plumlee, Willy Hernangomez, etc.
With Antetokounmpo, Jabari, Middleton, Matthew Dellavedova, and Tony Snell off the court, Monroe has led the Bucks with 1.36 DraftKings points per minute (per our On/Off tool); the concern with Monroe is that the Bucks could use this as a game to feed Thon Maker close to 35 minutes. Marjanovic leads all centers with 1.29 FanDuel points per minute, and he could see 20-24 minutes against a Magic team that has allowed centers to average a +4.30 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Hamilton might start for the resting Brook Lopez, Plumlee could stick in the starting lineup with Faried out, and Hernangomez faces a Sixers team that has allowed centers to average a +5.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus since the beginning of February — the highest mark during that span.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan: In 22 games this season against teams with a rebound rate no greater than 49 percent, Jordan has averaged a +7.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 77.3 percent Consistency. The Kings rank 26th in rebound rate since the All-Star break, and they are playing on zero days rest against a Clippers team that must win (or have the Jazz lose) to earn the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference playoffs.
Nikola Vucevic: When the Magic have been favored this season, Vucevic has averaged a +10.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 81.3 percent Consistency. I’m waiting for shenanigans from coach Frank Vogel, but since it’s the last home game of the season, there’s a chance he lets some of his starters play normal minutes. Stephen Zimmerman is the one young guy who could extinguish Vucevic’s claim to 30-plus minutes.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
