Wednesday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets
This game has the highest Vegas total of the slate at 228.5 points, mostly because it features the Nuggets, who rank eighth in pace, averaging 100.4 possessions per 48 minutes, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing an awful 110.7 points per 100 possessions on the year.
The spread might be a bit surprising, especially given how hot the Wizards have been in 2017, but the Wizards are on the second leg of a road back-to-back in high altitude in Denver. But how much does that really matter? Let’s check that out using our Trends tool:
Over the last three seasons, Denver has allowed the fourth-highest DraftKings Plus/Minus to players on the second leg of a road B2B. The Nuggets are slightly better this season, but not by much: Their +2.7 DK Plus/Minus allowed on the second leg of a road B2B is certainly in the bottom half of the league.
What about how the Wizards have done specifically in road B2Bs this season?
Not too bad, actually. It seems like this particular narrative is a bit overrated, so don’t be afraid to roll out the Wizards against the defensively-inept Nuggets, especially John Wall, who just dropped 57.8 DK points last game and has this trend going for him:
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
And he’s not the only player to target: Bradley Beal brings a ton of minutes safety at the SG spot, Bojan Bogdanovic has been red-hot since joining the Wizards (29 and 27 real points in his last two games), and Ian Mahinmi (the bare minimum $3,000 on DK) exploded for 43.25 points last night:
On Denver’s side, everything depends on the status of Nikola Jokic, who is questionable tonight with an illness that kept him out of Monday’s game against the Kings. The two biggest beneficiaries of Jokic’s absence were Mason Plumlee, who received the start and went for 35.0 DK points in 31.1 minutes, and Wilson Chandler, who went off, scoring 64.5 DK points in a massive 42.5 minutes. He took 23 shots, including 10 3-pointers, and he bumped his usage rate up by 9.6 percentage points. Plumlee saw a usage rate bump of 5.2 points and got 9.7 minutes more than his average. Per our NBA On/Off tool:
Both of those guys will be intriguing options in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if Jokic is out, and Danilo Gallinari is cash-game viable regardless. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging +3.30 DK Plus/Minus over that time. He’s played 30-plus minutes in five straight games.
If Jokic is able to go, he’s certainly in play in GPPs: He’s scored 52-plus DK points in each of his last three starts.
Point Guards
Stephen Curry is $200 more than the likely super-chalky Wall on FD, and he’s also continued to shoot the ball poorly:
That said, the more important data point is that he’s posted a 32.5 percent usage rate — a team-high increase of 3.5 percentage points — in the four games so far without Kevin Durant. It’s not unrealistic to think that arguably the greatest shooter of all time will eventually revert back to his median shooting percentages. If that happens — and it could happen against the Celtics and Isaiah Thomas, who ranks literally last out of 455 eligible players this year with a -4.42 Defensive Real Plus-Minus — Curry has massive upside. Despite having good defenders on their team, the Celctics are the fourth-worst team this season against opposing PGs:
Given Steph’s struggles and Wall’s projected chalkiness, he could likely go underowned tonight.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Nikola Vucevic is out for the Magic, and here’s what was written about that injury in our NBA News section:
There’s no doubt that Bismack Biyombo and probably Aaron Gordon will be popular in Vuc’s absence, but it is interesting that Elfrid Payton has actually led the team with 1.07 FD points per minute over the last two games. He put up a triple-double in 34.7 minutes last game against the Knicks, and he could get a Bulls team without Jimmy Butler, who is uncertain and missed shootaround today due to an illness. Per nbawowy.com, with Butler off the floor this year, the Bulls have allowed 113.3 points/100 — easily the worst mark in the league extrapolated out. Payton is a nice value on FD, where his $6,000 salary comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends (accessible to Pro subscribers in our Player Models).
Kemba Walker has been a sure-fire cash-game option for quite a while now:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a robust +8.10 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame. He has scored between 38 and 47 FD points in each of his last five games, and his low $8,300 salary requires only 34.3 points for him to meet value tonight. Miami is solid defensively — the Heat rank fourth in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing just 103.9 points/100 — but Kemba has had success against them already twice this season:
Shooting Guards
DeMar DeRozan was incredibly bad against the Bucks this past Saturday, scoring only 19.25 DK points in 31.3 minutes of action. That said, there’s reason to be optimistic about him tonight. First of all, he’s not on a back-to-back as he was on Saturday, which has shown to be a struggle for him:
Secondly, the data without Kyle Lowry in the game is still overwhelmingly positive: In seven games sans his All-Star backcourt mate, DeRozan has averaged 44.7 DK points and a +3.5 Plus/Minus on a massive 37.2 usage rate.
The Pelicans are still a work in progress, and they have been below-average against opposing SGs this season:
DeRozan is too pricey on FD, but he’s a nice GPP option on DK, where his $8,700 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
It is unclear who will get the starting nods for the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge out tonight due to rest. The big men, Pau Gasol and David Lee, have been the biggest beneficiaries this season when those two guys have been off the floor, bumping up their usage rates by 8.3 and 5.7 percentage points.
That said, this is not a perfect sample given that Kawhi and Aldridge haven’t missed a game together yet this season. It is likely that one of the wing players — Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and Jonathon Simmons — will receive a boost in value, but that’s not a certainty. All three players are near minimum price on DK, and while Green has seen the most minutes lately . . .
. . . he is also a very low-usage player, using only 12.6 percent of the Spurs’ possessions while on the floor this year. For whatever it’s worth, last year in three games sans Kawhi and Aldridge, Simmons averaged 25.17 DK points and a +12.6 Plus/Minus in 31.7 minutes per game.
DeMarre Carroll is apparently “closer to doubtful” with a sprained right ankle tonight. In five games without him this year, Norman Powell has averaged 26.7 DK points and a +11.7 Plus/Minus in 30.3 minutes per game.
And that obviously undersells it, as Lowry is out and Terrence Ross is now in Orlando. Those three guys haven’t missed a game at the same time this year, but if we take them all off the floor (using the On/Off tool), we see that Powell has increased his usage rate by 4.4 percentage points and has averaged a higher-than-normal 0.86 DK points per minute. At just $3,700 DK, Powell brings a lot of salary relief and relative safety at a difficult position.
Also, don’t forget about Dwyane Wade if Butler is ruled out:
Small Forwards
Speaking of Terrence Ross: He is definitely prone to some odd duds . . .
. . . but it’s difficult to ignore the larger sample. Since coming to Orlando, Ross has been an incredible DFS asset:
Over his six games, he has averaged 25.5 FD points and a huge +9.01 Plus/Minus. More importantly, his salary on FD just can’t seem to budge: Despite starting for the Magic and playing at least 32 minutes in each of his last six contests, he remains only $4,500 there, with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. As mentioned several times over the past week, players with high FD Bargain Ratings have been very valuable.
It is difficult to find a SF worth paying up for assuming Butler is out, but Jokic’s status will affect that. Gordon Hayward remains cheap on FD, where his $7,700 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He gets a Rockets team that ranks fourth in pace, averaging 101.9 possessions/48, and just 15th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.8 points/100. Hayward has been good against the Rockets this season . . .
. . . and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in 75 percent of contests in which he plays way up in pace.
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Khris Middleton has been working his way back from an unfortunate torn left hamstring injured in preseason workouts. The Bucks ramped him up, and he’s now played 30-plus minutes in four straight games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in all four of those contests and has averaged an impressive +6.22 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10.
Of course, FD has been slow to price him up: His $5,700 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Further, he gets a nice matchup versus a Knicks team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.5 points/100, and has been poor against wings this year.
Power Forwards
Aaron Gordon should be quite chalky again with Vucevic out. In the two games without Vuc (and since Serge Ibaka was traded to Toronto), Gordon has averaged 31.35 FD points and a massive +10.7 FD Plus/Minus in 32.2 minutes per game.
He’s also been magnificent over his last 10 games, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of them and averaging a +6.24 FD Plus/Minus.
Again, the Bulls are essentially the league’s worst defense with Butler off the floor, and his absence would cause a huge bump for Gordon, who would likely be guarded by Butler.
Paul Millsap has quietly exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and averaged a +2.58 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame.
He gets a Brooklyn team tonight that ranks first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions/48, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.6 points/100. They also rank 28th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.0 percent of the available boards, and have predictably been a bottom-five team versus opposing bigs:
Millsap put up 36.6 FD points against them last outing and needs only 32.5 points to hit value on his $7,900 salary tonight.
Again, it is unclear who will start or play heavy minutes for the Spurs with Kawhi and Aldridge out resting tonight. That said, it is noteworthy that in five games this season without Aldridge, David Lee has led the team with an +8.4 FD Plus/Minus differential:
Kawhi did play in all of those contests and it’s uncertain what this Spurs offense will look likely without either of them, but 25.04 FD points and a +9.5 Plus/Minus in 25.1 minutes per game is certainly nothing to scoff at, especially since Lee is quite cheap. He currently ranks highly in the Phan Model for DK, where his near minimum salary of $3,700 comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. (For more details on the highest-rated players in this slate, Pro subscribers should visit our NBA Models.)
Centers
There will certainly be some chalky centers tonight given the injuries so far today. Lee, mentioned above, is also center-eligible on DK, and his teammate, Pau Gasol, has similarly crushed value in games without Aldridge this year (look at the image above). He has averaged 34.53 FD points and an +8.7 Plus/Minus without Aldridge, and he sees the biggest bump in usage on the team when Aldridge and Kawhi are both off the floor:
He will be very popular, especially at just $5,400 on DK, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Obviously don’t forget about another Spur, Dewayne Dedmon, who (per the image in the Lee section) has boosted his usage rate by a team-high 6.2 percentage points in five games this year without Aldridge. He’s cheap on both sites ($3,700 DK and $3,900 FD) and is a nice pivot from Lee and Gasol in GPPs.
To wrap up the chalky center section: Rudy Gobert will be playing tonight without frontcourt mate Derrick Favors, who is out with a sore right knee. The Jazz could be thin, as Shelvin Mack (ankle) is already ruled out as well, and George Hill (toe) and Joe Johnson (groin) are both questionable. Without Favors on the floor this year, Gobert has posted a team-high +3.5 FD Plus/Minus differential, and he actually is more efficient: His true shooting percentage bumps up by an astounding 7.8 percent. Gobert has played very well in high minutes the last two games . . .
. . . and he certainly has upside against a Rockets team that ranks bottom-10 against centers this season:
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
After lineups lock, be sure to visit the DFS Ownership Dashboard in order to review the ownership percentages for the centers (and all the other positions too).
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
